384
FXUS64 KMAF 121132
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
632 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- Low thunderstorm chances (10-20%) persist in the higher terrain
  of west Texas and southeast New Mexico Thursday and Friday.

- A hot and dry weather pattern takes shape this weekend into the
  middle part of next week with temperatures reaching near to
  above 100 degrees over much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery shows the shortwave trough moving away
from our area tonight. The departure of this trough marks the end of
our very active weather pattern and the beginning of a more summer-
like pattern. Pulses in the northwesterly flow aloft coupled with
continued upslope surface flow will encourage the development of
some isolated storms later today in the higher terrain of southeast
New Mexico and west Texas (10-20% chance). Though a few of the
storms in southeast New Mexico may migrate into the far northern
Permian Basin this evening, the bulk of the activity should stick
pretty close to the mountains. Fairly weak 0-6 km shear (15-25 kt,
up to 30 kt) will inhibit widespread severe weather, though the
strongest storms may produce some large hail and damaging winds.
Nevertheless, the severe threat is low. Otherwise, temperatures are
back in the 90s areawide today, with 100s along the Rio Grande. Lows
in the upper 60s and 70s should be expected tonight as well. Friday
will be a similar story to today: isolated convection is possible in
the higher terrain (10-20%), some storms could migrate into the
northern Permian Basin that evening, and the severe threat remains
low. Temperatures continue to increase Friday afternoon (highs
generally in the upper 90s and low 100s) as an upper-level ridge
makes its way this direction.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Shortwave impulses within N-NW flow aloft along the eastern
periphery of an upper-level ridge to our west will translate
across areas along and east of the Pecos Friday evening.
Sufficient moisture and instability may result in the continued
development of at least isolated (10-20 percent chance of) showers
and thunderstorms over portions of the Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend region through the early to
mid-evening hours Friday. The upper-level ridge will gradually
build eastward across our forecast area through the weekend. Deep
layer subsidence will be on the increase across our region
underneath this feature, but there may be enough moisture for
isolated thunderstorm development over the southwest mountains
Saturday and Sunday. Most areas are otherwise expected to remain
dry. Hot temperatures will return this weekend underneath the
building ridge, with highs forecast to reach into the upper 90s to
around 105 degrees over much of the region, though a few
locations along the Rio Grande may range up to around 110 degrees.
The upper-level ridge axis looks to remain oriented across most
of our forecast area through the early to middle part of next
week. Hot temperatures will persist Monday-Wednesday, with highs
continuing to range in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees over
much of the area and up to 110 degrees along the Rio Grande. Early
morning lows should range in the 60s and 70s. Dry conditions
generally prevail except for perhaps some very isolated afternoon
storms that could develop in the vicinity of the southwest
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
later this afternoon near CNM (and perhaps near PEQ and HOB in the
evening as well). However, confidence is currently too low (<20%)
to include mention of this in the TAF. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  71  96  73 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 96  69  99  70 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                   96  74  99  73 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            96  72 100  72 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           91  68  94  70 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                    92  67  97  68 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    91  63  94  64 /  20  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     93  72  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   93  71  97  73 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     95  71 100  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...13