172
FXUS64 KMAF 061854
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1254 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1254 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Gusty winds expected into early this evening (especially in the
  Guadalupes/Delaware Mountains). There remains the potential of
  patchy blowing dust across portions of southeast New Mexico,
  much of the Permian Basin, and around the Davis Mountains.

- After a weak front Saturday night/Sunday morning, a warming
  trend develops early next week. Precipitation chances are nil
  through the extended.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

WV imagery this afternoon show an upper level trough extending from
the southeast CONUS to off the Baja coast, running right through
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico at 18Z. At the surface, leeside
troughing on the Front Range has induced southwest to west winds
across the area. High winds are expected in the Guadalupes/Delawares
this afternoon, and this will add a downslope warming component
to today`s highs, which should top out a pleasant 8-10 F above
normal.

Tonight, the trough moves very little...slightly east-southeat at
best.  Despite mostly clear skies, higher dewpoints, elevated
mixing, and today`s highs will yield warmer overnight minimums...
around 5-10 F above normal.  A weak cold front arrives after
midnight, but doesn`t look to have much effect on lows.

However, it will put a dent in Sunday`s highs, shaving around 5-6 F
off today`s highs.

Sunday night, surface winds will veer back to return flow, but
they`ll be light, combining with mostly clear skies to promote
efficient radiational cooling and allowing overnight lows within a
degree or so of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Northwesterly flow resides aloft Monday as a trough departs to the
east and a ridge begins to build to the west. Much of the upcoming
week looks to feature upper-level troughing over the eastern CONUS
and ridging over the western CONUS. This keeps most of the cold air
at bay and allows us to see a warming trend. Monday, winds return
out of the south and southwest, resulting in highs in the 60s and
lows in the 30s. Tuesday, westerly and southwesterly winds become a
touch breezy as a surface low develops off the lee of the Rockies.
Highs are forecast to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s, with lows
in the 40s. A weak cold front attempts to push into our area
Wednesday, but becomes diffuse by the afternoon and highs still warm
into the 70s. Our next cold front begins to take shape early
Thursday, when a shortwave trough rolls over the northern Plains and
kicks up another surface low near the lee of the Rockies. Highs
Thursday warm up a few degrees more, with 70s for most and 80s
spreading further into our southern counties. Cooler temperatures
arrive Friday behind a cold front ushered in by the aforementioned
surface low. However, long-range models are in disagreement in terms
of timing for this front, whether it arrives sometime Thursday
afternoon or Friday. For now, highs Friday are forecast to reach the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty west winds this
afternoon will give way to a weak cold front overnight. A few high
clouds are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               39  61  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 38  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   47  71  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            44  64  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           39  56  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    35  61  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    33  62  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     40  61  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   41  61  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     38  63  32  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99