238
FXUS64 KMAF 261831
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
131 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Temperatures warm again this weekend, with generally decreasing
  rain chances (though 30-50% chances are maintained for the Davis
  Mountains, Stockton Plateau, and Big Bend). Isolated to
  scattered showers/storms are also possible in the Permian Basin
  today.

- Another storm system is forecast to impact the region by early
  to mid-week. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, which
  will elevate the risk for flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave
departing from west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Behind this
feature, the flow aloft becomes more zonal to northwesterly through
the Short Term period as ridging attempts to build over the region
again. So, while the last few days have featured near-normal
temperatures, highs today and Sunday tick back into the upper 80s
and low 90s for most locations. In general, rain chances also
decrease across the area. The best chances (30-50%) for scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be in the Davis Mountains, Stockton
Plateau, and Big Bend both today and Sunday, thanks mainly to
upslope flow. For today, residual lift from the departing trough and
remnant outflow from previous convection will also encourage
isolated to scattered shower and storm development for portions of
the Permian Basin (10-30% chances). Forecast soundings depict
sufficient instability (1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE), DCAPE (around 1000
J/kg), and PWATs (1.3-1.5 inches) to allow a couple of storms to
become strong or marginally severe again today. Similar to previous
days, the heaviest storms may produce strong winds, small hail, and
heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. Overnight lows
tonight and Monday morning bottom out in the mid-to-upper 60s and
low 70s across the area. We are still monitoring another system this
week that will usher in another cooler and wetter pattern across the
area. See the Long Term discussion for more details on that and the
potential for more flash flooding.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A more active weather pattern is forecast to take shape beginning
early next week as another upper-level system (albeit a more intense
one) approaches the region on Monday. As the system approaches, rain
chances begin to increase across our westernmost zones. Long-range
guidance continues to show remnants of Hurricane Polo being pulled
into the aforementioned system. This will provide abundant mid-level
Pacific moisture while lee cyclogenesis draws in Gulf moisture at
the lower levels. As a result, areawide rain chances can be expected
beginning Monday night and lasting through at least Wednesday, with
the best chances across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.
Anomalously high PWAT values associated with the tropical airmass
are likely to exceed the daily maximum climatologically speaking,
which means flash flooding is a major concern next week (especially
in locations where soils are completely saturated due to recent
rainfall). Guidance continues to indicate Tuesday being the
"wettest" day given the positioning of these two systems as they
would provide plenty of lift and moisture. However, there remains
uncertainty regarding the exact positioning/timing of the
aforementioned systems and their impacts.

Aside from the heavy rain/flash flood potential, long-range
guidance depicts a cold front sweeping through our area sometime
around Wednesday/Wednesday night next week. This could yield
afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with drier conditions
behind the front late in the week. Though some rain chances (10-30%)
stick around across our eastern zones as the upper trough departs
the region.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period with light southwesterly
to westerly winds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop this afternoon around the Stockton Plateau, so have included
a PROB30 for -TSRA at FST. While isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms are also expected to develop in the Permian
Basin, chances were too low to include a PROB30 for MAF at this
time. TEMPOs will be added as necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  95  71  95 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 64  91  65  91 /   0   0   0  30
Dryden                   73  96  73  96 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            69  93  70  94 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           63  82  64  82 /   0   0  20  40
Hobbs                    64  89  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    60  87  61  87 /  10  20  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     70  93  70  92 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                   71  92  71  92 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                     69  94  70  94 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13