092
FXUS64 KMAF 110745
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures beginning Tuesday and lasting
  through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Surface high pressure builds in across the Central Texas today and
will help keep temperatures near or just below normal in the low to
mid 80s for most. Winds gradually shift back to the southeast by
tonight and keep low level moisture pooled over the eastern half of
the CWA. However, with no upper level support, rain chances remain
low (<5%) through the short term forecast. Lows tonight settle in
the 50s to low 60s. Upper level ridging moves in from the west for
TUesday and temperatures ramp back up well above normal in the low
to mid 90s for most.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Unseasonably warm tempertures kick off the long-term forecast as an
upper-level ridge axis moves over southeast New Mexico and west
Texas. Afternoon highs on Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-to-
upper 90s for most, with some spots in the Trans Pecos and along the
Rio Grande reaching triple digits. Meanwhile, surface troughing
associated with an area of low pressure develops over southeast New
Mexico. In response, breezy southeasterly winds are expected across
much of the region. By Thursday, the upper-level ridge weakens some
and moves east, allowing for a shortwave to pass over the area. As a
result, we cannot rule out the possibility of a couple showers and
thunderstorms, particularly for areas over/near the Davis Mountains
and Pecos County. However, chances look to be low (10% or less) at
this time. Breezy conditions are expected to continue on Thursday
thanks to surface troughing. Widespread highs in the mid-to-upper
90s looks to continue through the weekend. Long-range guidance shows
an upper-level low skirting across northern portions of the CWA this
weekend, yielding low (10-15%) chances of showers and thunderstorms.
However, there is uncertainty in all of the details at this time.
Specific details will depend on the exact track of this system and
associated moisture quality. Lows each night are forecast to be in
the 60s for most each night throughout the extended.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows stratus beginning to develop into
the Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos, and expect this to affect
mainly Texas terminals overnight. Latest soundings/guidance
suggest IFR cigs at KMAF, but MVFR elsewhere. Latest NBM scatters
all terminals to VFR by 18Z Monday as surface winds veer to
southeast after sundown.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               81  57  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 82  58  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   84  61  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            82  59  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           75  57  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    81  55  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    79  48  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     81  59  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   81  59  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     83  59  95  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ early this morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT early this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99