488
FXUS64 KMAF 211914
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold
  front that moves into the area today and Tuesday. A few storms
  will be capable of producing localized severe downburst winds, and
  heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Highs remain above normal today, but finally trend cooler
  Tuesday through the end of the week.

- The heavy rainfall threat increases across southeast New Mexico
  and far west Texas beginning Tuesday night lasting through at
  least Thursday. We will be monitoring these locations for an
  increased potential for flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Satellite imagery and weather observations as of 1 PM CDT shows the
front just north of Lubbock extending down to near Aspermont, TX.
Showers and storms are beginning to redevelop across the northern
Permian Basin, while some are developing across the Stockton
Plateau. A dryline is also situated across portions of far west
Texas and southeast New Mexico supplying additional lift and
moisture for storms to develop later in the afternoon. The greatest
chance (30-50%) for showers/storms this afternoon and evening will
be over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings
continue to depict inverted-V profiles, high PWATs (near to above
90th percentile), abundant DCAPE ( > 1200 J/kg), and modest mid-
level lapse rates signal a heavy rainfall (may lead to localized
flash flooding) and damaging wind threat. The aforementioned front
will provide more deep-layer shear (20-30 kts) sustaining storms
than previously seen over the past of couple days. As a result, a
few of these storms are expected to produce strong to severe
downburst winds (up to 70 mph) mainly across the Permian Basin this
afternoon and early evening.

Tonight, the front makes its way near the Trans Pecos bringing
further shower/storm development to these areas. Lows tonight are
forecast to reach the 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow, the weak upper-level
ridge of high pressure shifts slightly eastward bringing southerly
flow aloft transporting moisture from Tropical Storm Polo. This
allows disturbances in the flow aloft to provide more moisture and
ascent for storm development. Scattered storms are once again
expected portions of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and higher
terrain during the afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will be the
primary threat associated with the strongest storms. High-resolution
guidance suggests higher surface and mixed-layer available
instability combined with less DCAPE due to vast surface moisture
advection. Hail up to the size of quarters may occur with the
strongest storms as well given similar wind shear parameters. High
temperatures will reach the 80s for a lot of locations tomorrow,
thanks to cold air advection behind the front. These cooler
temperatures look to stick around through at least the rest of the
work week. Tomorrow night, the aforementioned high pressure will
continue to slide eastward. A plume of deep moisture from Tropical
Storm Polo will begin to set up over portions of far West Texas into
southeast New Mexico. This will set up a very favorable wet weather
pattern and heavy rainfall threat throughout the rest of the work
week. More details can be found in the long-term discussion.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A cooler and wetter pattern is in store through the rest of the work
week into early this weekend. Moist southerly to southwesterly flow
aloft from Tropical Storm Polo, along with inverted surface
troughing brings favorable moisture and lift for daily scattered
thunderstorm development across much of the region. The most
favorable areas in receiving the heaviest rainfall will be across
portions of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Coverage of
showers and storms begin to significantly increase (> 60%) by
Wednesday for these areas as upper-level troughing pulls in more
moisture from northwest Mexico. Ensembles continue to signal PWATs
reaching above the 90th climatological percentile through at least
Friday, reaffirming the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Rainfall amounts are still uncertain, however, probabilistic
guidance has a low to medium (30-50%) chance for rainfall exceeding
an inch within 24 hours (Wednesday-Thursday) for areas across the
Eddy County plains into the Guadalupe Mountains. Locally higher
amounts (4 inches or greater) due to repeated convective bands look
to occur as well. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for these
areas from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The Watch
will likely need to be extended as the plume of moisture shifts east
Thursday and Friday. Areas elsewhere should still expect isolated to
scattered rain/storms each afternoon and evening (20-50%). Localized
flash flooding could occur outside the watch area, though less
extensive rain coverage is expected. We will continue to monitor
trends closely. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will persist where
highs range from the 80s to low 90s for most locations. The flow
aloft becomes more zonal by the weekend, with weak ridging building
overhead on Sunday. This should allow for lower chances of showers
and thunderstorms this weekend, while temperatures also trend warmer
back into the upper 80s to lower 90s over much of the region.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the period. A cold
front will push into southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin
late this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will shift
easterly to northeasterly behind this feature. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the
boundary mainly after 20Z. We included PROB30 mention for TSRA
with gusty winds at KMAF and KINK late this afternoon into this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  90  69  90 /  40  40  20  20
Carlsbad                 69  88  66  82 /  10  40  60  80
Dryden                   73  92  72  91 /  10  20  10  10
Fort Stockton            70  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           64  80  61  72 /  10  30  60  90
Hobbs                    65  85  65  82 /  10  40  50  60
Marfa                    60  84  60  80 /   0  20  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     70  88  69  88 /  40  30  30  20
Odessa                   71  88  70  87 /  30  30  30  20
Wink                     71  90  70  88 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning for
     Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County-Northern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21