208
FXUS64 KMAF 050422
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1122 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions continue
  across the region through early next week.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and low (10-40%) rain chances
  briefly return by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A rather pedestrian forecast is in store over the next couple of
days for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  WV imagery this
afternoon shows an upper trough ejecting through the Four Corners,
putting the region under southwest flow aloft.  KMAF 12Z RAOB came
in with a pwat of 0.74", around the 40th percentile, portending a
dry forecast through the weekend.  Highs are on track to top out ~ 6-
8 F above normal this afternoon.

Tonight, a 40 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and mixing will keep
overnight minimums around 10 F above normal.

Sunday, a secondary trough will begin developing over the western
CONUS, maintaining southwest flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Thicknesses may increase slightly, yielding
perhaps the warmest day this forecast and adding a degree or two
onto today`s highs.

Sunday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight as the LLJ
redevelops, albeit slightly weaker.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The forecast remains unchanged. Above normal temperatures and
lighter southeasterly winds are expected on Monday and Tuesday.
Highs both days will span in the 80s to lower 90s for many
locations, thanks to upper-level ridging and southwesterly flow
aloft over the region. The lighter southeasterly winds will pull in
moisture from the Gulf allowing scattered cloud cover over most of
the region Tuesday. Low (10-40%) precipitation chances return by
late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as guidance has a weak cold
front and surface troughing over the area. Weakening in the ridge
will also provide ascent for rain as shortwave impulses round the
periphery of this feature. The greatest chance of rain lies over
portions of southeast New Mexico during this timeframe. Wednesday
high temperatures dip into the mid 70s and mid 80s, which will
keep temperatures slightly above normal for this time of year.
Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance continues to show upper-
level ridging settling back into the region late next week into
the weekend, promoting warm and dry conditions once again.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR continues with gusty south winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  92  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 62  91  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   64  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  91  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    61  88  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    53  83  54  84 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     65  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   65  89  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     64  91  64  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29