908
FXUS64 KMAF 021046
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
446 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 445 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Warming trend through midweek before another front knocks
  Thursday`s temperatures down well below normal again.

- Low (10-30%) precipitation chances Thursday. Snow flurries
  possible across southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe Mountains
  Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation along with no travel
  impacts are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough moving into West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico at 06Z.  At the surface, a weak cold front
is oozing through the area.  Light/variable winds under clear skies
are promoting efficient radiational cooling, and tonight should be
the coldest night this forecast as minimums plummet to ~ 3-5 F below
climatology.

Today, leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of the next trough
will increase southwest winds over the higher terrain, and return
flow in the east, for a respectable warmup as highs climb to a
couple of degrees above normal.  The mtn wave signature in the NAM
is not as impressive as 24 hours ago, and high winds do not look to
materialize in the Guadalupes/Delawares attm.

Tonight, the aforementioned return flow will usher in higher boundary
layer dewpoints, and this will combine with a 35 kt LLJ to keep
mixing in play, adding around 10 F to overnight lows.

Wednesday, the upper trough digs down to the Four Corners.  Westerly
flow will add a downslope warming component to the mix.  This will
combine with compressional warming ahead of the next cold front to
yield afternoon highs 3-4 F higher than today`s...about 3-5 F above
normal.  Unfortunately, this pleasant weather will be rudely
interrupted by a cold front around sundown...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

We start off the extended chilly, but it won`t stay that way.
Following Wednesday`s cold front, a shortwave will move across the
S. Rockies helping spread cloud cover over the cold airmass. While
any measurable rain looks to remain across the Big Bend into Mexico,
the clouds will help to keep temperatures well below normal. Highs
will struggle to reach the mid 40s for most locations with warmer
air (60s) across the Big Bend.

Westerly flow returns Friday into the weekend shoving the cold
airmass to our east. Highs will return to the 60s/70s Friday and
Saturday. Winds will increase areawide Saturday in response to a
wave moving across the Plains. Many locations could have gusts near
30 mph through the afternoon. A weak front arrives Sunday helping to
cool temperatures back closer to normal to start the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR prevails through the period. Expect gusty southwest winds for
a brief period this afternoon before diminishing around sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  41  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  42  66  32 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   61  40  71  41 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            72  48  74  35 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           58  44  57  32 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    63  37  61  27 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    65  35  66  30 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     63  42  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   63  42  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     64  40  68  34 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29