855
FXUS64 KMAF 101705
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1105 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 921 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Slightly cooler temperatures and gusty northeasterly winds
  return Wednesday behind a passing cold front.

- Above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday
  before a stronger cold front brings much cooler temperatures on
  Sunday.

- Dry conditions persist through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Upstream observations depict northeasterly winds gusting 30 to 40
mph behind the incoming cold front. With this in mind, went ahead
and increased winds across the area this morning (though it still
looks like we will generally remain just below Wind Advisory
criteria). Additionally, guidance has been consistent in indicating
strong gap winds will occur in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains,
especially at Guadalupe Pass. As a result, we have issued a High
Wind Warning for the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains (and including
Carlsbad Caverns) effective from 8am CST/7am MST until 3pm CST/2pm
MST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving across the
Great Lakes area this morning. Meanwhile, West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico remain under northwesterly flow aloft. The low pressure
system to the north is helping push a front across the Southern
Plains. This front will arrive in our area later this morning,
bringing with it relatively cooler air and gusty northerly to
northeasterly winds (but below advisory criteria). That being said,
the front only drops temperatures down closer to normal for this
time of year. Most locations top out in the 60s this afternoon, with
50s in the higher terrain and 70s along the Rio Grande
(incidentally, this is still about 2-5 degrees above average). Lows
tonight generally drop into the mid-to-upper 30s and low 40s.
Despite the brief cooldown today, southwesterly winds quickly
redevelop Thursday morning, and highs once again jump into the upper
60s and low 70s (about 10-15 degrees above normal). Warm and dry
conditions continue into the Long Term period.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist late week through Saturday as
upper-level ridging extends across the Desert Southwest. This will
keep skies clear Friday and Saturday, with temperatures in the 70s
areawide. Saturday looks to be 1-3 degrees warmer than Friday as
winds veer to the southwest. This will be short-lived as guidance
still suggests that a rather strong cold front will move through the
area late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Increasing clouds
behind the front may yield afternoon highs in the 50s for many
Sunday afternoon. However, there is a bit of uncertainty in Sunday`s
highs as there is a lot of spread amongst the ensembles. Sunday`s
highs depends upon the strength of the cold front and the amount of
cloudiness that comes along with it. Guidance indicates southerly
winds should return Monday and southwesterly on Tuesday, yielding
afternoon highs in the mid 60s and upper 60s to low 70s,
respectively. Near-zero precipitation chances remain throughout the
extended.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 921 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Gusty conditions will prevail through the daylight hours with
NE gusts as high as 30-35kts until sunset at all TAF sites. Winds
will slowly swing SE after sunset Wed and decrease to 5-10kts
from the S. VFR conditions and dry weather will continue into Thu.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  36  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 64  37  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden 71 40 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 the weekendFort Stockton 66 40 76
47 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 39 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 62 36 71
42 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 29 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 63
38 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 62 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 64 34 72 39 /
0 0 0 0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...01