274
ACUS11 KWNS 291637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291637
WIZ000-MNZ000-291830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Areas affected...parts of Northern and Central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...414...

Valid 291637Z - 291830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413, 414
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and large hail will
continue with a long-lived bow echo. Tornado potential may increase
this afternoon within the southern fringe of the convective system
as it interacts with a warm front.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived bow echo over Wadena and Todd Counties as
of 1630Z has assumed more of an easterly motion over the past hour
owing to storm development/propagation on the southern fringe of the
convective system. That propagational component has resulted in the
storm system now moving parallel to a warm front lifting north
through the region. The air mass south of the warm front has become
strongly unstable with the modification of the 12z MPX sounding for
current surface conditions yielding MLCAPE as high as 4500-5000
J/kg. The strong buoyancy coincides with 45-55 kt of effective bulk
shear, per objective analysis with that parameter space supportive
of the continuation of the bow echo, assuming the convection is
fully rooted within the boundary layer.

Damaging winds with gusts of 60-80 mph will remain the primary
hazard; however, the potential for HP supercells to evolve within
the broader-scale convective complex will support a large hail
threat. The tornado threat may also increase this afternoon,
especially with any supercell structures that can become established
within the southern flank of the MCS in the vicinity of the warm
front.

..Mead.. 06/29/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46059549 46879560 47169533 47419353 47279203 46669182
            46069199 45889428 46059549

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN