281
ACUS11 KWNS 072324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072324
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1536
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota into northeast South Dakota
and far west-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

Valid 072324Z - 080130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
continues.

SUMMARY...Intensifying elevated convection along the Dakota border
will likely pose some threat for large hail and perhaps severe winds
through the late evening. Expansion of WW 469 into northeast South
Dakota or a new watch may be warranted, though it is uncertain how
far north the threat will manifest into North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, elevated thunderstorms have
developed and steadily intensified along and north of the ND/SD
border. This activity is maturing within a MUCAPE gradient where
buoyancy values range from around 500 J/kg across southeast ND to
around 2000 J/kg further south into SD in the vicinity of a
stationary/warm front. The passage of a mid-level jet to the north
is supporting elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear
values on the order of 40-50 knots. This kinematic environment will
favor storm organization, possibly into supercells, though storm
propagation along the zone of initiation and the buoyancy gradient
will likely favor clustering with time - especially after 00 UTC
when thunderstorm coverage should increase with the emergence of the
low-level jet.

Regardless, the convective environment will likely support a severe
hail threat and possibly a severe wind threat given relatively moist
low-level conditions downstream, especially across northeast SD
within the more unstable air mass where dewpoints are largely in the
60s. This will likely warrant northeastward expansion of WW 469 into
northeast SD, or a new watch.

..Moore.. 07/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46189605 45799607 45559626 45349663 45249702 45219813
            45239924 45270018 45360087 45480104 45870091 46190044
            46459997 46649928 46579643 46449616 46189605

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN