119
ACUS11 KWNS 150626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150626
OKZ000-150830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...parts of north central/central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417...

Valid 150626Z - 150830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely to continue through the
remainder of the night, with potential to organize and begin to
produce strong to severe wind gusts, particularly to the north of
the Greater Oklahoma City area during the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Convection likely remains rooted within forcing for
ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near
the nose of a modest southwesterly nocturnal low-level jet.  This is
occurring above a boundary-layer air mass substantially impacted by
prior convection, with little substantive surface cold pool
strengthening evident with ongoing activity.

Strongest continuing thunderstorm development through the next
several hours appears likely to become increasingly focused along
the western flank of the composite outflow, roughly east of Alva
into areas north of Oklahoma City OK, where elevated (southwesterly)
updraft inflow will remain most unstable.  This may remain
characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.  Although this is
embedded within westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10 kt,
veering profiles from southwesterly to northwesterly in
lower/mid-levels may continue to support evolving supercell
structures.

It still appears possible that convection currently intensifying
between Enid and Chandler could undergo substantive further upscale
growth, and perhaps become accompanied by a more prominent southward
propagating surface cold pool with increasing potential to produce
strong to severe wind gusts by 08-10Z.

..Kerr.. 06/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36769845 36449745 35759626 35279650 35159696 35159742
            35839793 36299868 36769845

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN