306
FXUS64 KMEG 141732
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Scattered thunderstorms continue each day, mainly in the
  afternoon hours to early evening hours. Some storms could
  produce heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain across the Mid-South, with
  high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
  will likely exceed 105 degrees for some by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A weak trough over the Ohio Valley will continue to deamplify this
afternoon as it shifts east, exerting less influence on the
Midsouth. A look at midday satellite imagery as compared to
yesterday suggests that influence may already be minimal as a
robust cu-field has not yet developed. Nevertheless, clearer skies
will likely lead to warmer temperatures resulting in a more
typical diurnal pattern for convection. Additionally, a couple of
midlevel weaknesses in the upstream ridge over eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas should approach the Midsouth later this
afternoon/evening. The resulting slight height falls from
northeast Arkansas, east across the Bootheel into northwest
Tennessee will help to destabilize the atmosphere. Will maintain
the 50-60 percent PoPs across northwest Tennessee. After sunset,
we should see a quicker decrease in both coverage and intensity of
storms as compared to yesterday. Afternoon high temperatures
should reach the upper 80s to low 90s before convective
initiation.

Persistence is often the best forecast tool this time of year.
Atmospheric moisture values will remain elevated (at or above 2
inches) through the work week with high temperatures in the low to
middle 90s, so afternoon thunderstorms should develop each day. A
25-35% coverage each day would be a good bet. Guidance continues
to suggest a warming trend during the work week, but that seems
to be a pattern that models have been forecasting for the past
7-10 days and it really has not panned out. Nevertheless,
confidence is increasing that by Wednesday and Thursday we will
see heat indices above 105 degrees across portions of the
Midsouth. NBM probability of temperatures above 95 degrees
approaches about 50% Wednesday in portions of north Mississippi
and southwest Tennessee. By Thursday, much of the same area is
between 50% and 60%. Thursday looks to be our warmest day of the
7 day forecast period. We will likely continue to evaluate the
need for any heat headlines on a day by day basis.

The National Hurricane Center now has a 30% chance of tropical
development in the northern Gulf during the middle to later part
of the work week. Although no direct impact from a tropical system
is expected in the Midsouth, some tropical moisture could
eventually make it into our area next weekend. Either way,
slightly cooler temperatures are expected to return to the region
Saturday and Sunday.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR TAFs with the a 30% - 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms
this afternoon and tomorrow. Widespread cumulus has yet to mature
into showers and thunderstorms as of 17z today, which is
significantly later than yesterday. As such, have moved any
mention of TS a few hours further into the TAF period, but storms
are still expected to develop this afternoon. After 02z - 03z,
storms should wane in coverage with VFR through tomorrow morning.
Expect more storms to develop tomorrow afternoon with similar
impacts to today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Prevailing hot and humid conditions through the foreseeable
future, with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day. As such, no
fire weather concerns are in the forecast. Temperature will trend
warmer through Thursday.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB