777
FXUS64 KMEG 271105
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
605 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Hot and humid conditions will plague the Mid-South through
  Tuesday with heat indices reaching as high as 114 degrees.

- Lower humidity and seasonal temperatures will arrive by midweek,
  providing some relief from the extreme heat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now cancelled. Storms continue
to weaken as they move south towards the Tennessee / Alabama
border. A few storms cannot be ruled out over the next hour or
two, but severe weather is not anticipated.

In addition, the Extreme Heat Warning has been expanded areawide
through 8PM Tuesday. Oppressive heat will be in place with
dewpoints nearing 80 degrees Monday afternoon. Heat indices up to
114 degrees are forecast. Please use caution if working outdoors.
Heat remains the number one cause of weather-related fatalities
in the United States each year. Learn the signs of heat illness
and ensure you hydrate frequently.

ANS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

8PM radar imagery depicts a complex of storms diving south out of
Kentucky into Middle Tennessee. The 00Z sounding out of Nashville
depicts surface cape greater than 4500 J/kg along with bulk shear
nearing 30 kts. While shear is on the weaker side, the abundance
of instability will be enough for storms to overcome the weaker
kinematics. One thing to note on the sounding is a weak EML at
around 750 mb. The CAMs are modeling this well, depicting
increasing CIN over the next several hours. Given this, storms
will struggle to maintain strength for long and likely diminish
by midnight. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary
concerns at this time.

Hot and humid conditions resume on Monday as the eastern flank of
a 598 dam ridge remains over the Mid-South. Afternoon highs will
reach the upper 90s areawide with heat indices in excess of
110 degrees. This pattern will persist into Tuesday as
temperatures approach 100 degrees. An Extreme Heat Warning and
Heat Advisory are in effect through 8PM Tuesday. Luckily, a
backdoor cold front will swing through the Mid-South on Wednesday
and decrease dewpoints into the 60s. This will produce heat
indices beneath headline criteria by Thursday. Until then, make
sure you monitor yourself for signs of heat-related illness if
working outdoors. Take frequent breaks and remember to drink
plenty of water.

By Friday, a shortwave trough will move through the central
Plains. This feature will increase rain chances in the Mid-South
through the weekend. It remains too early to tell specifics, but
for now expect the upcoming weekend to be wet and unsettled.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

TSRA impacts should remain east of the terminals this cycle. Wind
shifts are possible near any lingering outflow boundaries;
otherwise, expect a prevailing W/SW flow. Guidance does suggest
light winds and clearing skies after 06z, which could enhance fog
development. Will continue to monitor convective and fog trends.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH
values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...DNM