280
FXUS64 KMEG 190437
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A fairly calm night across the Mid-South at this hour. A few light
returns were depicted on KNQA along and west of the Mississippi
River where dewpoints are still in the mid to upper 70s. This is
due to the poleward stream of Gulf Air that is seen on GOES Water
Vapor Imagery.

A few light showers are possible tomorrow mainly north of I-40 and
west of the Mississippi River as a high pressure system sinks
south. The high pressure movement will kick off a warming trend,
but dewpoints look to remain fairly mild under easterly flow.

Forecast is in good shape, only minor adjustments were made.

DNM

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A significant warming trend will begin Wednesday and persist
through this weekend. Temperatures will soar into the mid to upper
90s each day with heat index values approaching or exceeding 100
F by this weekend. Rain chances will remain low over the next 5
days. Chances for rain and unsettled weather may arrive early next
week as high pressure weakens across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A rather cool day across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures
are in the low to mid 80s areawide with a thick blanket of mid and
upper level clouds. The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals very light
rain showers along and west of the Mississippi River. GOES-East
Water Vapor Imagery shows a poleward stream of tropical moisture
surging up the Mississippi River Valley with a 595dam ridge over
the Northeastern U.S. Rain will taper off this evening as upper
level heights build in across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

A significant warming trend will begin on Wednesday and persist
through this weekend. The aforementioned ridge, currently over
the Northeastern U.S., will deamplify and retrograde back west
into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.
This will translate to hot and dry conditions each day.
Temperatures will climb 5 to 7 degrees above normal with readings
in the mid to upper 90s by this weekend. With dry easterly flow at
the surface, heat index values should remain around 100 F through
late week. Low level moisture will return on Sunday and could
trigger a heat advisory for portions of the region as heat index
values climb to 105F or greater.

Our first chance of rain and cooler temperatures may arrive
Sunday as a shortwave drops down across the Ohio River Valley and
pushes a cold front into the region. The Mid-South looks to remain
in northwest flow aloft early next week, which could translate to
an MCS pattern or a series of weak frontal passages.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The western lobe of an upper level ridge centered over the mid-
Atlantic seaboard will spread into the Midsouth through the
next 30 hours. This will limit SHRA/TSRA chances and bring light
easterly surface winds for the MEM nighttime arrival/departure
pushes.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB