512
FXUS64 KMEG 041128
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
528 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- A low to medium chance (30 to 50%) of a light wintry mix is
  expected Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of
  eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest
  Tennessee. Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow are all
  anticipated.

- Impacts will be limited to slick bridges, overpasses, and elevated
  surfaces, which typically freeze first.

- Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with
  highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Considerable cloud cover has overspread the Mid-South overnight,
in response to a quick moving shortwave over the ArkLaMiss. The
latest surface analysis places a cold front along the windward
side of the Appalachians trailing southwest through Ohio and back
into southeast Missouri. This front will continue to push
southeast through the Mid-South this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures ahead of the front are generally in the low to mid
30s with subfreezing temperatures behind it. The latest local
radar scan shows scattered light radar returns over north
Mississippi at this hour, which is likely all rain due to
temperatures in the mid 30s at the surface. Another shortwave,
currently located near the Texas Panhandle, will quickly eject
and dampen as it moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon. The wave will bring additional moisture into the
region this afternoon and evening resulting in wintry weather for
much of west Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, eastern Arkansas,
and extreme northwest Mississippi.

With a lot of moving parts and near freezing temperatures, quite
a bit of uncertainty remains with respect to precipitation types
and location. Nonetheless, areas along and north of I-40, where a
wintry mix is most likely, will receive the lightest amounts of
precipitation or about one tenth of an inch. Model soundings
remain consistent with snow for areas north of I-40, with a
wintry mix zone focused along the I-40 corridor, and mainly rain
to the south. Little to no accumulations of wintry precipitation
as anticipated. The office opted to go with a Special Weather
Statement (SPS) for a light wintry mix for areas along and north
of the I-40 corridor through midnight tonight. There is a low
chance (20%) of a dusting of snow for areas north of I-40.

Impacts will be limited to slick roadways, bridges, and
overpasses if any accumulations of freezing rain, sleet, or snow
do occur. The timing window for wintry weather remains focused
around and during the evening commute. The forecast can and will
change, so check back often for the latest.

AC3

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The first of two features in the near term will start making its
way into the region from the ArkLATex during the overnight
period. This initial push is most likely going to be just rain,
considering it will stay confined to north Mississippi where
temperatures will be sitting a few degrees above freezing aided
by thick cloud cover. The next push from a more dynamic shortwave
system will start as early as noon on Thursday. This second
system raises a few more questions about precipitation type and
impacts.

Digging into the CAMs, point soundings suggest a very shallow
warm nose between 700-850 mb during the onset of precip Thursday
afternoon. This will make or break precipitation types,
especially because the surface temperatures will be hovering at
or just above freezing along the I-40 corridor for most of the
afternoon. By the time sunset rolls around, the changeover line
from a rain/snow mix to just rain will most likely dip a little
farther south. Since ground temperatures have been relatively
warm, snow is not likely to accumulate tomorrow even in the
northernmost counties. The biggest impact will be slick roads
from a light dusting of snow, especially on bridges. Elevated
surfaces and sidewalks may also become slick, so use extra
caution both walking and driving.

It`s worth noting that the forecast is trending away from
freezing rain altogether. The latest probabilities for even a
light glaze of ice (0.01") are only around 20% for the chunk of
the CWA just north of I-40. This change is most likely due to the
column`s warm layer not being stout enough to fully melt the ice
crystals on the way down. As such, no Winter Weather Advisory was
issued with this forecast package. Regardless, roads may still
suddenly become slick with rain while temperatures are near
freezing. Precip with this shortwave will come to a close no
later than sunrise Friday morning.

Moving into the weekend, a very weak frontal boundary will
support a slight chance (15-20%) of showers on Sunday.
Temperatures will be back in the 40s and 50s by this point so
winter weather is not a concern over the weekend. Monday and
Tuesday finally dry out with high pressure at the surface after
the weak cold front finally passes. We end up back in a cool,
active, northwesterly flow regime by midweek with another shot at
rain starting Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A mixed bag of flight conditions will impact the terminals this
cycle ahead of a leading shortwave. Cloud coverage will filter in
ahead of precipitation chances and degrade flight conditions to
MVFR/IFR. Model soundings near the MEM and MKL terminals do favor
a shallow warm nose, but surface temperatures will hover at or
just above freezing. To account for uncertainty of the depth of
warm nose and surface temperatures, opted for prob30 of a RAPL
mix. KJBR is most likely to see SN after 21z, but could have a
brief mixture of RASN before the changeover. KTUP will likely
remain too warm and see all rain showers.

Precipitation aside, guidance is in good agreement with
deterioration to LIFR ceilings (300-400 ft) once the shortwave
pushes east at all terminals. High pressure will move in and
improve cigs. Guidance is already favoring JBR return to VFR by
06z, but given the pattern of the past couple days, opted for a
pessimistic delay to around 09z with the other terminals to
follow in the next cycle.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...DNM