Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
529 FXUS64 KMEG 011735 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1235 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - A cold front will move through the Mid-South tonight, bringing a few lingering showers and a wind shift to the northwest. - Significantly colder air arrives Sunday, with widespread freezing temperatures (greater than 80% chance) expected Monday morning across much of west Tennessee and portions of north Mississippi. - Dry conditions and a gradual warming returns next week, with above normal temperatures returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A cold front extends from Cleveland, Ohio southwest through the Ohio Valley and into Little Rock, Arkansas. A few showers are noted on radar along and behind the front mainly over northeast Arkansas. Aloft, a large cutoff low remains over SE Iowa with a broad trough encompassing the eastern CONUS. The cold front will move through the entire Mid-South tonight with trailing post frontal showers through the overnight hours. A sharp wind shift to the northwest will occur behind the front and a slightly cooler airmass will advect into the region on Sunday. Monday morning will be particularly chilly, lows will fall into the 30s areawide and freezing temperatures are expected (greater than 80% chance) across much of W Tennessee and portions of north Mississippi. Frost and freeze headlines have ended as of October 31, so no products will be collaborated or issued. A gradual warming trend will occur next week as shortwave ridging builds across the Southern CONUS. High temperatures will climb into the 70s by the middle of next week and peak in the mid 70s by late week, which is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. There is considerable timing and strength disagreement on a deepening trough across the Plains late next week. This system may introduce showers and thunderstorms to the region next weekend. Confidence in details for next weekend remains low at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Light showers will continue pushing east/southeast out ahead and behind a cold front this afternoon and into the evening. All terminals will be impacted by prevailing -SHRA and BR with this system. Ceilings do have the potential to fall to intermittent IFR, however, confidence was only high enough to prevail MVFR conditions behind this front. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR around 15Z. West light winds will shift north/northeast with the aforementioned front. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Wetting rain will return to areas along and north of I-40 today, as a cold front moves across the region. There is a medium to high chance of frost across much of the region on Monday morning. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range between 40 to 50 percent through much of next week as temperatures rebound back into the 70s. Fire danger will remain low through the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH