153
FXUS64 KMEG 211715
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1115 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Wet and unsettled weather will continue through this evening.

- This weekend will be mostly dry with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Another unsettled weather pattern emerges Monday into Tuesday
  with showers and occasional thunderstorms. Cooler and dryer
  weather will return by the middle of the week, behind a cold
  front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A cool and cloudy start to our Thursday with current temperatures in
the 60s and gusty winds at the surface. As we also had a foggy
start to our day, a few sites remain foggy with reduced
visibilities, some areas still socked in with dense fog. The
aforementioned cloudy start has resulted in a need to decrease
high temperatures today by a few degrees as we are expected to
stay largely overcast through much of the day, aided by a
stationary front currently strewn across central Kansas and
extending into West Virginia. This front did bring the past
several days of dense fog. Fog is expected to develop tonight and
into the overnight hours as winds go light along already saturated
soils and as a low-level inversion sets in. One thing to note,
winds will be slightly elevated, compared to the last several
nights, likely not warranting dense fog tonight, visibilities
<=1/4mi.

The aforementioned, slow moving cold front will bring a very
conditional chance for severe weather this afternoon and into the
late evening hours, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Today
does have two rounds of convection: one this afternoon and into
early evening and a second late evening and into the early
overnight hours. Looking at kinematics, forecast soundings
indicate around 700 J/kg of SBCAPE, 40 kts of effective wind
shear, and PWATs around 1.7", nearing the 99th percentile for this
time of the year. However, we do have a few limiting factors when
it comes to severe potential, including lapse rates around 5.7
C/km and cloud cover resulting in a lack of daytime heating.
Primary threats with both of these rounds will be damaging winds
and a few tornadoes.

Behind this front, this weekend looks nice with high temperatures
60s and 70s and largely dry conditions as surface high pressure and
zonal flow aloft builds in. Expect fog Saturday night and into the
overnight hours on Sunday as soils will be saturated, skies will be
clear, and calm winds. Early next work-week, the weather pattern
becomes unsettled. Sunday morning, a closed upper-low will eject
from the dessert southwest, pushing into the eastern Rockies by
Monday morning. Out ahead of this next upper-level system, a set
of surface lows and attendant cold fronts will begin pushing into
the Middle Mississippi Valley. Out ahead of these fronts, showers
and occasional thunderstorms will return to the forecast Monday
morning, northwest to southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will
persist into early Wednesday with a pretty cool airmass setting in
behind the set of cold fronts. As far as severe potential goes
next week, we`re not expecting much if any severe weather as
instability remains largely south of the Mid-South.

Cooler and drier weather will return by mid-week as cool high
pressure sets in over the region. Temperatures will be about fifteen
degrees cooler Wednesday in comparison to Tuesday. Even colder
temperatures will be present Thanksgiving day, much of the area
not leaving the 50s, as ample radiational cooling is expected to
set in. Many areas will be at or below freezing Thanksgiving
morning so be sure keep this in mind when it comes to holiday
travel. This cool pattern does look to stay as the latest 8-14 CPC
outlook does have us highlight below normal heading into early
December.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A mixed bag of flight conditions across the airspace this
afternoon as post-warm frontal stratus blankets the area.
Guidance has hinted at brief periods of VFR, but decks will still
reside at or below 5,000 ft. A cold front will cross the area
tonight into tomorrow morning bringing more shower and
thunderstorm chances and lowering flight categories after 00z.
The HRRR is hinting at a rapid drop in visibilities during FROPA,
but waiting to see how the situation evolves before dropping too
drastically.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum through at least
early next work-week as minimum relative humidity values will
continue above 50%. Wetting rain chances will also remain today
with another round early next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...DNM