717
FXUS64 KMEG 221147
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for areas south of the front,
  where heat indices will be 105 or greater Wednesday afternoon.

- Heat and humidity will moderate Thursday and Friday, following
  Wednesday`s cold frontal passage. However, heat indices in
  excess of 100 degrees will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Strong thunderstorms are currently propagating southward along a
cold front across West Tennessee, with outflow-driven convection
extending into portions of southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi. The primary hazards associated with this activity
include gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and intense lightning.
Damaging wind gusts remain a possibility through the next several
hours, particularly over West Tennessee. The severe weather
threat is expected to diminish overnight as the primary jet
streak exits the region and instability wanes.

On Wednesday, the front is forecast to stall before eventually
pushing south by morning, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass
for much of the area. Despite the frontal passage, heat indices
of 105F or higher are anticipated in southern counties, where a
Heat Advisory will be in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM. By Thursday,
noticeably drier air will keep heat indices near ambient
temperatures, with afternoon highs ranging 5-10 degrees below
seasonal norms.

Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to make landfall in southeast
Texas Thursday night. In its wake, a subtropical ridge will
retrograde westward while broad troughing develops over the Ohio
Valley, placing the Mid-South in a northwest flow regime through
the weekend. A marine frontal passage on Saturday will likely
bring a return of elevated heat and humidity.

Current model guidance suggests that shortwaves embedded within
the northwest flow may trigger a Mesoscale Convective System
(MCS) late Friday night. However, confidence regarding severe
potential remains low due to significant spread in LREF and
deterministic guidance. By early next week, long-range guidance
indicates the subtropical ridge will build eastward, leading to
increasing heat and humidity. NBM 50th percentile values suggest
apparent temperatures will climb well above the 100-degree mark
areawide during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Low cigs continue across MEM/MKL early this morning, with gradual
increases back to VFR expected over the next few hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for much of the TAF period
across the airspace with winds becoming N/NE by the afternoon.
There is a low chance of some -SHRA across NE MS overnight, which
could bring a period of low cigs to TUP after 23/05Z. Not enough
confidence to include a PROB30 at this point, but have mentioned
MVFR to IFR cigs for TUP overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Minimum RH values are forecast to remain above 40 percent through
the next several days. Following a cold frontal passage, 20-foot
winds will shift northerly late tonight into early Wednesday.
Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of the front this
evening, primarily across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, and West Tennessee.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ010-011-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CMA