Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
760 FXUS64 KMEG 242312 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 612 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 - Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will persist across the Mid-South through much of the next week. - Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into early next week due to warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and dry vegetation. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Warm and dry weather conditions will persist across the Mid-South this week as an anomalous ridge maintains its grip over the central CONUS. Geopotential heights at 500 mb are at the max of climatology across the Upper Midwest and still well above the 90th percentile as far south as the Lower MS Valley. While this ridge will become less amplified throughout the week, 500 mb heights will remain well above climatology across the Southeast, maintaining the status quo. Column precipitable water will remain in the vicinity of 0.50" through most of the week, which is roughly half of the climatological norm for late October. Efficient diurnal mixing will promote generally low relative humidity values each afternoon and wider-than-normal diurnal temperature ranges. Keeping with the recent theme, no precipitation is expected through the work week. Persistent troughing over the western CONUS will result in southwesterly flow aloft from the Southern Plains into the Middle MS Valley by midweek. Individual shortwave troughs will pass far to the north of the CWA, but we should see some impact via increased mid/high clouds from day to day. The stubborn surface anticyclone over the OH Valley will gradually shift farther east this week, but proximity to this high will limit southerly wind speeds and the subsequent moisture return. There may be some light at the end of the tunnel, or rather a faint glow of light. A strong subtropical jet is projected to round the base of the western trough and propagate across the Southern Plains. This may be just enough of a nudge to the east to advect some deeper moisture into the region over the weekend. Ensemble guidance is hinting at increasing rain (liquid that falls from the sky) chances by Saturday. Confidence is low in the timing, as these split flow patterns upstream of a blocking ridge often arrive later than initially suggested by numerical guidance. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 VFR. No aviation concerns for the next 24-30 hours. Light southeast winds will trend more southeasterly late tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions will persist across the Mid- South into early next week. The combination of above-normal daytime temperatures, low relative humidity, and very dry fuels will continue to promote an environment favorable for fire starts and growth, despite the relatively light 20-foot wind speeds. The persistent drought has led to ERC values above the 90th percentile area-wide, with some areas near the 97th percentile. Above-normal temperatures and rain-free conditions will persist through the work week. Patchy fog will be possible each morning, primarily near water sources and in the low-lying areas of West Tennessee and north Mississippi. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ AVIATION...JDS