134
FXUS64 KMEG 181708
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1108 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Above-normal temperatures will continue through the week
  although there will be a slight cooldown over the weekend.

- Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and
  thunderstorms will continue with the potential for 1 to 2 inches
  of total rainfall through this weekend.

- Cooler conditions are expected next weekend with highs in the
  60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Strengthening southerly flow today could result in near record
high temperatures in northeast Mississippi. However, current
satellite imagery shows an expansive cloud deck over the region,
with no evidence of it dissipating or moving out of the area
anytime soon. Expect highs to fall short of records, generally in
the middle to upper 70s.

A midlevel shortwave will shift east across the middle Mississippi
Valley into the lower Ohio Valley late this afternoon/evening. A
surface low along the Oklahoma-Kansas state line will slowly
weaken over the next 18 hours as it tracks east across central
Missouri into southern Illinois. An attendant cold front will move
into the Midsouth tonight, likely stalling somewhere along the
I-40 corridor, somewhat bisecting the Midsouth. Clouds currently
across the Midsouth and the late timing of the front/shortwave
will both limit the potential for any severe thunderstorms. Any
storms should be elevated this afternoon north of a warm front
advancing through the area. Hail would be the main threat
north/east of the warm front with a higher chance of hail and wind
in the warm sector.

A transient ridge will shift across the Mississippi River Valley
Wednesday, limiting the chance of rain and thunderstorms. It will
also result in less cloud cover and warmer temperatures across
the region. Near record highs (above 80 degrees) are possible
again across north Mississippi. NBM probabilistic output even
shows about a 10% chance that portions of northeast Mississippi
could reach 85 degrees Wednesday afternoon. While the chance of
getting that warm is very low, record highs are only in the low
80s.

After midweek, the ridge will shift east and a deepening trough
over the Desert Southwest will result in strengthening southwest
flow from south Texas across the middle and lower Mississippi
River Valley. A 55-65kt midlevel jet will setup from northeast
Texas into middle Tennessee Thursday and remain in that general
orientation through early Saturday. PW`s are expected to be near
1.4 inches(above the 95th percentile for mid November), and high
temperatures should be in the middle 70s. Ample moisture, lift
from the midlevel jet and warm temperatures could result in some
strong to severe storms late Thursday or early Friday. The threat
of severe storms would be higher if a shortwave, currently
expected to approach the area early Friday, speeds up a bit.
Guidance varies a bit for next weekend, but in general trends
cooler with a low chance of rain showers.

Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Main impact this aviation cycle will be a cold frontal passage
resulting in showers and thunderstorms late this evening.
Uncertainty still remains relatively high, thus PROB30s are the
best way to handle this FROPA convection as of right now. Ceilings
will likely be on the fence of MVFR/VFR all day and night given
the surrounding observations in this expansive stratus deck. Winds
ahead of the front will be quite gusty up to 25 kts from the
southwest today, finally diminishing back below 10 kts with a
northwest wind shift behind the front.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

No Fire Weather concerns are anticipated over the next seven days.
An increasingly wet and unsettled pattern will prevail over the
Mid-South this week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CAD