686
FXUS64 KMEG 132325
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
625 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

- Hot and dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South through
  the middle of next week.

- Temperatures will range from the lower to upper 90s for the
  next several days.

- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to lack
  of precipitation and prolonged heat. This also raises wildland
  fire concerns through at least next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

A persistent Omega Block will dominate synoptic weather patterns
over the next several days, prolonging above average temperatures
and mostly dry conditions. Afternoon highs will continue to be in
the mid and upper 90s with lows dipping into the upper 60s and
lower 70s each night. For now, heat headlines are not anticipated
as heat indices max out in the upper 90s each day. One thing to
watch for in the Memphis metro area: degraded air quality over
the next several days. Strong nighttime inversions will trap
pollutants near the surface. This, along with minimal daytime
mixing, will lead to little room for pollutants to move elsewhere.
Additional Air Quality Alerts are anticipated through midweek.

Fortunately, the aforementioned Omega Block is forecast to finally
breakdown late Thursday as a trough moves across the Central
Plains. Rain chances increase to about 20 percent on Friday. A
widespread wetting rain is not anticipated, but pop-up
thunderstorms will provide relief from the prolonged period of
dry weather. In addition, temperatures are forecast to decrease a
few degrees by the end of the work week with highs ranging from
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

VFR TAFs through the period. A few showers have formed across
northern AR and southeastern MO, but are expected to stay away
from JBR through this evening. Expect calm or variable winds
overnight, with a slight increase in wind speeds tomorrow with a
variable or southerly direction. Afternoon showers are not out of
the question, but confidence in coverage is too low to include at
any terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Elevated fire danger will continue into next week as hot and dry
conditions continue to plague the Mid-South. Dry fuels and MinRH
around 30 percent will encourage wildland fire development.
However, light 20ft winds will keep fire spread to a minimum.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JAB