586
FXUS64 KMEG 030452
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1052 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

- Widespread fog and areas of frost are expected to develop Monday
  morning, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.

- A warming trend will follow, with high temperatures returning to
  the low to mid 70s by late week.

- Successive cold fronts will bring periods of rain, first on
  Friday and again late in the weekend; no severe weather is
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

A cool, crisp evening has already given way to a further cooling
of temperatures underneath clear skies and light/calm winds. These
conditions will persist throughout the night and will allow for
temperatures to drop into the mid to low 30s by 12z Monday
morning. Some areas could see lows around freezing, especially
across portions of West Tennessee and north Mississippi. Surface
dew points will also remain in the mid to upper 30s, if not
mirroring temperatures closer to 32 F. This, in combination with
exceptional radiational cooling conditions, could produce fairly
widespread fog into Monday morning. As of the time of writing
(04z), GOES satellite imagery and local road cameras have
detected/observed fog along the Tennessee River. The expectation
is for visibilities to drop more generally throughout the region
later tonight with the potential need for a Dense Fog Advisory if
fog becomes widespread enough. Any drops in visibility will lift
quickly after sunrise.

Temperatures will remain temperate Monday with highs in the low to
mid 60s. The upper trough that has brought this most recent batch
of cold air will lift north and east Tuesday with high pressure
taking over through the end of the week. Temperatures are then
forecast to gradually warm as southerly flow returns through the
duration of the week. By Wednesday, high temperatures will
increase above 70 F which will last through the end of the week
and dry weather through Thursday.

Although the upper pattern will be mostly zonal throughout the
week, several perturbations are evident amongst guidance, which
now bring a more amplified wave towards the region Friday.
Surface moisture ahead of this system will be augmented by prior
southerly moisture advection and will act to provide our next
chance of rainfall. Some instability is present amongst guidance,
especially the GFS which has shown 500 - 1000 J/kg in the past
several runs. However, the overall suite of models still vary
regarding the likelihood of severe weather as LREF joint probs for
favorable severe weather thresholds of MUCAPE/MUCIN/Shear still
only around 15% - 30%. Therefore, it is still too early to tell if
the region will see any severe weather impacts, but there is
signal for at least some unorganized thunderstorms Friday evening.

Ensembles retain their confidence in the upper pattern through
next weekend. After the shortwave passes Friday, the region will
dry out again and significant amplification is likely to occur
within the the upper pattern as a longwave trough develops over
the northeastern CONUS. A cold front will pass through the region
while this pattern shift is ongoing, bringing a more traditional
arctic air mass into the Mid-South. Temperatures will drop once
again with the NBM already showing a 50%+ chance for lows to fall
below 35 F next Monday. So, with reasonably high confidence in the
upper pattern and a strong signal for cold air out to 7 days, it
seems likely that our warm spell this week will wear off by the
end of the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

No significant changes are planned for the 06Z TAFs. As mentioned
in the public forecast discussion, fog remains the primary concern
overnight. Charles Baker (M28) airport had already dropped to 3SM
at 0435Z, suggesting early stages of the fog formation process
was underway outside of the TN River Valley.

VFR should prevail areawide by 15Z, as light southwesterly return
flow develops under sunny skies.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Low fire danger anticipated throughout the forecast period.
Minimum relative humidity values will generally remain above 40
percent with isolated areas dropping slightly below. 20 ft winds
will also stay light. Temperatures will bottom out Monday morning
with lows dropping below 40 F across the majority of the region.
Some locations could approach freezing where frost is likely. A
warm up will commence through the rest of the week with the next
chance for wetting rains on Friday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB