353
FXUS64 KMEG 020001 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
701 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) exists for severe storms this
  evening. The primary threat for today is damaging winds with
  secondary threats of large hail and heavy rainfall.

- A cold front will deliver drier weather and near-normal
  temperatures beginning Tuesday, with highs in the 80s through
  the workweek.

- Summer-like conditions will return next weekend with daily
  chances for pop up showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A large outflow boundary, remnant of a decaying MCS, is currently
surging south, oriented ESE-WSW across W Tennessee and E
Arkansas. While initial convection behind the boundary has been
largely subsevere (gusts up to 40 mph), strong potential exists
for rapid intensification south of the boundary. Mesoscale
analysis indicates extreme instability (3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE)
and 30 knots of bulk shear across SW TN/NE MS, favorable for
upscale storm growth. Storms are already intensifying near the
TN/MS border. The main threat remains damaging wind gusts up to
70 mph and ping pong ball-sized hail under the current Severe
Thunderstorm Watch, which is valid until 7 PM CDT. Uncertainty
persists regarding the western extent of significant threats,
particularly west of I-55.

Hi-res guidance continues to struggle with today`s storm
evolution, but the overall trend is for another cluster of
showers and thunderstorms to translate south down near the
Mississippi River this afternoon into early evening. This
solution seems very plausible with a distinct shortwave currently
located over SE Missouri. The degree to how severe the
thunderstorms may become remains a little unclear. The atmosphere
has been largely untouched over NE Arkansas and the MO Bootheel
today as the residual outflow boundary could serve as a focus for
renewed or intensifying convection late this afternoon. There is
still some uncertainty further to the south, where storms trekked
through earlier. If storms can arrive before sunset, there will
be at least a medium threat of strong to severe thunderstorms,
with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats.

Model guidance is consistent with a backdoor cold front pushing
through the entire Mid-South tomorrow. A few lingering showers
and thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon on Tuesday for
areas south of the I-40 corridor. The threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms is low as upper level shear will be weak.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature a nice break from the heat
and humidity for this time of year as broad surface high pressure
builds in from the Ohio Valley. Both days will feature
comfortable humidity levels, light winds, and temperatures in the
low to mid 80s. High pressure will slide east late Thursday and
return flow will set up across the region. The upper level
pattern will feature mainly zonal flow and rather progressive
flow on Friday. Chances for diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms will return this weekend as an upper low near the
Baja Peninsula lifts into the Southern Plains and relaxes upper
level heights across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Primary concern remains TSRA potential through 03Z. A large TSRA
complex near OLV has sent an outflow boundary over MEM. Thus far,
this has not resulted in new TSRA development. The lower
atmosphere will become less conducive to TSRA through midevening,
but there is upstream midlevel support arriving from the north
which warrants a two hour PROB30 TSRA for MEM.

JBR TAF retains an AMD NOT SKED due to comms outage. The JBR ASOS
GTA Radio is functional for local traffic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the
Mid-South into early Tuesday morning, with sporadic showers and
thunderstorms maintaining high humidity and fuel moisture.

A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of this week as a cold
front moves through the region.  Minimum relative humidity values
will begin to fall below 50% starting Tuesday afternoon, but
sodden vegetation is expected to keep fire danger low. Daily pop
up showers and thunderstorms will return this weekend.

AC3

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB