749
FXUS64 KMEG 032328 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend with
  highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- A chance for showers will return to the region early next week.

- The end of next week features a cold front that will bring
  seasonable temperatures back to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

High pressure has shifted east of the Mid-South and we now reside
on the backside of the system. This results in cooler conditions
than the last few days as temperatures range from 1-5 degrees
cooler than 24 hours ago. High temperatures will still reside in
the 80s, which is above normal for early October. While
temperatures remain above normal, dewpoints have been mild in the
50s and 60s to keep humidity levels at bay.

An upper level low still looks to develop along the Gulf Coast.
Guidance shows this system developing rather quickly and not
allowing much time over the warm waters. This will likely refrain
the system reaching tropical cyclone status, but it will feed
plentiful moisture to the Mid-South. The advancement of moisture
will increase rain chances early next week. Guidance is in
agreement with development of the system, but still lacks
agreement of rainfall onset. Nonetheless, the moisture advection
will soar PW values well above climatology for this time of year,
in the 90th percentile. NBM QPF values appear to be underdone,
but this could be due to the aforementioned timing differences.

Another chance at widespread rainfall and cooler, more seasonable
temperatures will arrive late next week.. A weak cold front will
take aim from its parent low on track across the Northern Plains.
With still being nearly a week away, there is model disagreement
in the precise timing and magnitude of the cooling, but
temperatures are favored to be closer to climatology.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A persistence VFR forecast over the next 30 hours, as the
Midsouth remains under the western periphery of high pressure
centered over the southern Appalachians.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Light 20ft winds combined with elevated forecast fuel moisture
keeps fire weather concerns low. Most of the area will have
minimum RH values above 35%, but a few areas along the
Mississippi River will hover around 30%. Wetting rain chances
increase early next week keeping a persistent minimal fire danger
concern.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB