642
FXUS64 KMEG 050453
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1053 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Recent rainfall coupled with clear skies and calm winds will
  result in fog development over the next few mornings. Some areas
  of dense fog appear likely Thursday morning, especially across
  north Mississippi.

- Dry conditions will persist on Thursday with high temperatures
  generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

- A reinforcing dry cold front will arrive Friday with much cooler
  air filtering in by the weekend. Highs are forecast to be in the
  upper 50s to 60s with lows in the 30s to 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 928 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A relatively calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid-
South with temperatures currently in the upper 40s to 50s. Areas
of dense fog have already begun to develop to our east behind the
frontal boundary that pushed through earlier in the day, with
some patchy fog already developing across north MS. Conditions do
appear favorable for dense fog over our area overnight, with
saturated grounds, calm winds, and clear skies. The biggest
question for our area will be how widespread the dense fog will
become. REFS guidance has a 40% to 60% chance of widespread dense
fog development, where some other hi-res guidance keeps this area
mainly confined to north MS. As such, going to error on the side
of caution for now with a Dense Fog Advisory only encompassing
north MS. However, if trends do change, then an expansion across
the entire area may be warranted. Any dense fog that does develop
will begin to mix out following sunrise. Dry conditions are
expected on Thursday, with high temperatures remaining above-
normal in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A dry, reinforcing cold front will sweep through the region
overnight Thursday into early Friday, allowing for temperatures
to fall back even further heading into the upcoming weekend.
While high temperatures will remain close to normal on Friday in
the 60s to low 70s across our far southeast, high temperatures
will dip below normal by Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday
will likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures in
the low to mid 60s on Sunday. With the cooler temperatures,
overnight lows will likely fall into the 30s across the entire
Mid-South both Saturday and Sunday. While not expected to be
widespread, there is a 20% to 30% chance Saturday morning and a
30% to 50% chance Sunday morning for some locations to see their
first freeze of the season. The best probabilities are generally
across northeast AR, the Missouri Bootheel, and West TN. By
Monday and into next week, a gradual warm up is expected with
high temperatures returning to near-normal in the low to mid 60s.
Guidance continues to favor a dry forecast through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Dense fog will continue to develop across the airspace tonight,
impacting all sites. Vsbys will be the lowest at JBR and TUP with
conditions improving after sunrise. By mid-morning Thursday,
clear skies and light winds will resume.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 928 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable
future with recent rainfall aiding in keeping fuel moisture
content in the 13% to 17% range. Minimum relative humidity values
will remain above 40% through at least the upcoming weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...ANS