Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
911 FXUS64 KMEG 210449 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 - Well above normal temperatures will persist into Monday with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. - A cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Widespread rainfall is not expected. - Temperatures will edge closer to normal by midweek and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Near record breaking temperatures remain the story across the Mid- South as a 590dam ridge remains parked over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Taking a look at 00Z surface analysis, a stationary boundary is extending across the Ohio River Valley through the Southern Plains, just north of Springfield, MO. This front will bring our first shot at isolated to scattered precipitation chances in about 10 days Monday afternoon into evening. Forecast PWATs also begin to increase to around 1.75", nearing the 75th percentile for this time of the year, supporting increased moisture. However, latest HREF probabilities only have around a 20% chance of exceeding a quarter of an inch of rainfall Monday. The environment in the afternoon into early evening hours will be supportive of wet microbursts with ample instability in place, but little to no shear. A strong thunderstorm or two with strong wind gusts can`t be ruled out, but nothing to write home about. As far as temperatures go Monday, we`re looking at yet another near record-breakingly hot September day with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. On the bright side, relief from 48 days of 90 degree or higher temperatures is close by as a cooler airmass filters in behind the aforementioned front. We`re looking at highs in the 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday as the zonal flow also begins to push in aloft. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms may be witnessed near the Tennessee River and over northeast Mississippi through Tuesday afternoon, although nothing appreciable is expected once again. Wednesday looks even more pleasant with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s across much of the Mid-South as a cutoff low dips across the northern Ohio River Valley and upper-level northwest flow begins to move in over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Ensemble members are in decent agreement with upper-level northwest flow remaining over the region through at least the weekend, keeping temperatures near normal. As far as precipitation goes past Tuesday, we`re looking at a relatively dry period through at least the weekend as dry air filters in and surface high pressure moves in behind the aforementioned front. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Some isolated showers have developed over the past few hours, with a mention at TUP of VCSH included until 09Z. Coverage is expected to wane over the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the morning, with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon along a frontal boundary. Confidence remains fairly low for inclusion at TAF sites, but there is enough run to run consistency to include a PROB30 mention for TUP. Winds will remain somewhat variable across the airspace before the frontal boundary, with winds veering northerly by Monday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Another anomalously warm day is on tap for Monday with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. A weak cold front will bring isolated chances for showers and storms Monday. While moisture and minimum relative humidity values will increase, wetting rain is not expected. 20ft winds will remain below 10 mph through the period. A low chance for fog development will exist mainly along the Tennessee River Tuesday morning, otherwise fog is not expected amidst relatively dry soils. Cooler conditions will filter in behind the cold front Monday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CMA