179
FXUS64 KMEG 121136
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
636 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to the Midsouth today. A
  few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
  evening over north Mississippi, eastern Arkansas and southwest
  Tennessee. Damaging winds and flash flooding will be the primary
  threats. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out through this
  evening.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday through
  this weekend. At this time, the chances for severe thunderstorms
  appears limited.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated
  to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat
  indices will exceed 100 degrees by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Gulf humidity will return to the Midsouth today in advance of a
closed upper level low pressure system over TX. This feature has
spawned several rounds of thunderstorms across TX in the past 24
to 48 hours. Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a
leading shortwave over east TX that will eject through AR later
today. Upstream of this feature, an second shortwave near the base
of the upper low will eject through eastern AR tonight. These
shortwaves, likely convectively-enhanced, will present more
focused forcing for thunderstorms over the Midsouth than it
appeared a few days ago.

Regarding today`s the severe weather potential, 70s dewpoints
will play a significant role in reducing convective inhibition, as
well as enhancing low level CAPE for storm initiation. 0-6km shear
will not be particularly strong this afternoon, generally less
than 25 knots. The 06Z HRRR depicts deep layer shear increasing
to 35 knots late tonight, associated with the second shortwave. By
that time, storms will be rooted in an elevated layer, reducing
but not precluding chances of severe wind gusts. Last several
runs of the HRRR depict 700-500mb lapse rates of 5-6 C/km. With
PWAT nearing 2.25 inches, severe hail will be a secondary threat,
likely limited to discrete cells in the afternoon and early
evening.

Expect a similar story for Friday, but with slightly reduced
severe weather potential in the wake of pre-dawn shortwave
passage. PWAT values will remain above 2 inches. With weak deep
layer shear and modest midlevel lapse rates, the main impact will
likely be localized flash flooding and strong wind gusts. Similar
conditions expected Sunday, though more of a focus east of the MS
River, based on the eastward translation of the weakening upper
level trough.

Heading into next week, the upper low remnants will lift to the
upper OH River Valley, with weak west-northwest flow prevailing over
the Midsouth. Convective inhibition will remain weak, given
continued high boundary layer humidity and relatively moderate
midlevel temps (8-9C at 700mb). A weak northern branch shortwave
trough is progged by deterministic GFS, ECMWF and CMC models to
track southeast through the MO River Valley on Monday. Whether
this impacts the Midsouth is in question. Outside of this feature,
the main driver for daily rain chances through midweek will
continue to be high boundary layer moisture and strong daytime
heating. Wednesday`s heat indices are forecast to range from 100
to 105, as an upper ridge over TX expands eastward.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A messy TAF period is anticipated as multiple rounds of convection
impact the airspace through Friday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will begin later this morning as an upper level low
pulls towards the Mid-South. The latest guidance depicts greater
chances of prevailing TS overnight with MVFR CIGs moving in by
sunrise Friday.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

High relative humidity return to the Midsouth today, accompanied
by scattered showers and thunderstorms. High humidity and wetting
rain chances will continue through the weekend.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ANS