531
FXUS64 KMEG 061153
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
653 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Another warm and humid day is expected across the Mid-South today
with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. A weak cold
front will move through the area tonight, resulting in slightly
cooler and drier air for the start of the upcoming weekend. Shower
and thunderstorm chances are anticipated to return this weekend
as a cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. The
best rain chances are anticipated to be mainly north of I-40.
Cooler temperatures early next week will moderate back towards 90
degrees by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show an elongated upper-level
low centered over western Ontario and a weak upper-level low
located over southern Mississippi early this morning. These two
features are embedded within an upper-level trough axis that
encompasses the eastern United States. A cold front stretches this
morning from Lake Michigan back through northern Missouri and into
Kansas. A warm and humid airmass remains in place across the Mid-
South with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the lower 70s with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short-term models indicate the aforementioned weak low will push
away from the region today with the Mid-South remaining within
northwest flow aloft into the weekend. A weak and dry cold front
is expected to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight,
resulting in slightly cooler and drier air. A secondary cold front
is expected to move into the region later Saturday into Sunday as
the upper-level low moves towards Quebec. This will bring a
return of shower and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-South with
the best chances occurring on Sunday, especially north of I-40.
At this time, strong to severe thunderstorm potential appears to
be best over the Ozarks for the upcoming weekend where long range
ensemble guidance indicates better surface-based instability and
shear will be located. Nonetheless, trends will continue to be
monitored in subsequent model runs. NBM temperatures for the
weekend were trending slightly too high and blended towards the
NBM 25th percentile.

Long-term operational and ensemble model guidance indicate an
upper-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S. for much of
next week with an upper-level ridge attempting to build into
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. A weak shortwave trough
may bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A stalled front remains oriented along the Mississippi River this
morning. Along and east of the front, MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs are
prevalent. MEM remains right on the border of the 500 to 1000
foot cloud deck, however satellite imagery suggests MEM may be
affected by IFR CIGs for the next hour or so.

The stalled front will push southeast this morning with clearing
skies, a wind shift to the NW, and return of VFR conditions.
Another reinforcing front will move through all sites this
evening and increase northwest winds for a few hours. VFR
conditions will persist through the end of the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3