Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
234 FXUS62 KMFL 021718 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1218 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 ...New LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 - Slight chances for a few rain showers today into early Monday. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions are possible during the early to mid portion of the upcoming work week. - The combination of the next King Tide cycle and breezy onshore winds may result in periods of minor coastal flooding along the east coast of South Florida at some point this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Nov 2 2025 The progressive mid-level trough that continues to amplify and advect southeastward will swing through the Carolinas/GA region and into the western Atlantic by Monday. Out ahead of this trough, modest moisture advection will occur as South Florida will be in the SW flow region around the mid-level low. This typically would favor rain chances to increase by a larger margin, but the combination of both a lack of strong positive vorticity advection (the only true lifting mechanism for today) and a robust dry air column above the 700-800mb height level leads to a more stable environment and thus a less favorable environment for rain. With that said, enough low level moisture will exist from the low-level SW flow moisture advection that we could see some isolated to scattered light showers across the area on Sunday, particularly for the Atlantic coast where convergence is maximized. Therefore, PoPs are generally 20% for the eastern half of the region today and around 10-15% for the western half. On Monday, a cold front will begin to push towards the region and eventually push through heading into Monday night. This boundary will provide a stronger lifting mechanism, which will increase instability and potentially give a better chance for rain showers. However, an expansive surface ridge across the southeast U.S. will act to suppress this and once again limit activity to some isolated showers. Overall, while there will be slight chances for rain the next couple of days, no significant impacts are expected and any showers should be brief with low rainfall amounts. High temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected in the low to mid 80s across the region. Overnight lows Sunday night will range from the low 60s west of Lake O to the mid and upper 60s for the interior and near the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1214 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 ECENS and GEFS ensemble guidance in tandem with the latest runs of the deterministic ECMWF and GFS still depict a lobe of mid- level vorticity getting cut-off and retrograding westward underneath a building mid-level ridge across the northern Gulf waters & northern Gulf coast on Monday night. This in turn will veer 500mb wind flow to a northeasterly to easterly direction across the region as South Florida remains in between the departing parent mid-level trough and the cut-off lobe of vorticity over the southern Gulf waters. At the surface, the frontal boundary will continue to push to the south of the region as a attendant surface low accelerates to the northeast over the northwestern Atlantic waters. A ridge of surface pressure will advect eastward across the southeastern United States on Tuesday which will lead to a developing pressure gradient across the region as surface winds slowly veer from a northerly direction to a northeasterly direction during the day on Tuesday. With the breezy onshore northeasterly winds, cloud cover will make a return into the region. With forecasted precipitable water values remaining near climatological norms, cannot rule out a few isolated sprinkles/showers moving onshore in the breeze. The combination of the breeze and clouds will result in high temperatures peaking in the low 80s across the region on Tuesday afternoon. Winds will remain northeasterly on Wednesday and Thursday as the surface area of high pressure elongates but remains situated over the southeastern United States. Continued cloud cover and the breeze will result in high temperatures each afternoon remaining in the low to mid 80s area-wide. It is also during this time frame, that deterministic and ensemble models show the area of mid-level vorticity pushing back eastward across the Gulf waters. This could result in a slight moisture resurgence across the region on Thursday into Friday as a mid-level jet streak develops over South Florida. While this is at the tail end of the extended period, current models depict precipitable water values increasing back into the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range. The combination of the upper level synoptic support propagating across the region and the moisture resurgence may result in a higher chance of rain returning to the forecast on Thursday and Friday of this week. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 Light easterly to northeasterly winds across most of the area today with the potential of ISO to SCT showers across the eastern half of the region today. Have maintained VCSH in the TAF forecast for all east coast terminals. L/V winds will prevail once again after sunset before winds enhance and veer to a northwesterly direction after a frontal passage after daybreak on Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Nov 2 2025 Mostly benign conditions are expected across the local waters for the rest of the weekend. A gentle to lightly moderate breeze is expected across the local waters today, which will increase to a moderate to fresh breeze on Monday out of the north/northwest as a frontal boundary pushes through the area. Seas will be 2-3 feet or less through Monday before increasing Monday night and Tuesday as winds increase with the front moving through. Additionally, seas rise to 4-7 feet Monday night and will remain elevated into mid- week. Therefore, cautionary to hazardous conditions will develop Monday night into Tuesday. Slight chances for rain return today and Monday as well. && .BEACHES... Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Nov 2 2025 An elevated risk of rip currents may return along the east coast this upcoming week as winds veer to a northeasterly direction and remain elevated. This will occur in tandem with the next King Tide cycle which may result in minor coastal flooding along the east coast of South Florida during and around high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 85 64 82 / 30 20 0 0 West Kendall 69 86 63 82 / 30 20 0 10 Opa-Locka 71 85 65 82 / 30 20 0 0 Homestead 70 85 65 81 / 30 20 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 84 64 80 / 30 20 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 71 84 64 81 / 30 20 0 0 Pembroke Pines 71 86 65 82 / 30 20 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 82 64 81 / 20 20 0 0 Boca Raton 70 84 63 81 / 30 20 0 0 Naples 68 82 60 81 / 20 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...Hadi