Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
455 FXUS62 KMFL 061703 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 101 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 - Dangerous rip currents are forecast to continue at all east coast beaches through at least Sunday evening. - Drier air will result in low rain chances today. Heat indices could climb into the lower 100s across southwestern Florida on Sunday. - Increasing confidence in a return to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity early to middle of next week as deep moisture returns. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 A reprieve from the wet weather this week is expected this weekend as surface high pressure develops over the western Atlantic and a stout mid-level and upper-level ridge sets up across the southeastern U.S. due to a strong anticyclone centered over Central America. Drier air is expected to filter in for a period of time as a result of this flow change with PWATs falling to a range of 1.1- 1.4" over most of the region this weekend. Some areas will see even lower PWAT values during this time frame, and the 1.1-1.4" range is near the lowest for this time of year (ranging from above the 25th percentile to the driest ever for June 5-6). Therefore, the presence of high pressure favoring subsidence and the drier air mass will lead to much less rain activity this weekend. Nevertheless, given the time of year and most of this moisture likely focusing in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, it is possible to get a few isolated showers especially along the sea breezes. Under this easterly regime, rain chances will be higher for the Gulf coast and interior regions as easterly flow results in a pinned Gulf breeze along the Collier county coast and the Atlantic sea breeze gets forced further inland. High temperatures this weekend will range from the upper 80s to low 90s along the east coast metro and the low to mid 90s for interior and Gulf coast areas. Maximum heat index values will rise back into in the low to mid 100s for the Gulf coast on Sunday as some slight moisture resurgence causes an uptick in relative humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 As mid-level ridging flattens in the Gulf late on Monday into Tuesday, several lobes of mid-level vorticity are highlighted by some ensemble members to arrive in the vicinity of South Florida Tuesday into Wednesday and may provide some forcing in addition to daily mesoscale features. At the surface, a frontal boundary is forecast to slide southward across the southeastern United States Tuesday into Wednesday, which may act to veer surface winds more out of a southerly to southwesterly direction across the region. Some model guidance members continue to depict a noteworthy surge of deep tropical moisture (near record precipitable water values based on climatological norms) from the northwestern Caribbean arriving across the region during this time frame, although in general long term guidance begins to diverge with solutions mid- week through late week. Regardless of the exact solution that takes place, the one thing that the ensembles and deterministic long term guidance highlights is increasing risk for widespread rainfall this week with highest chances being for the middle to end of the week where PoPS are forecast to rise to 70-80% or higher. Forecast high temperatures during the middle to late portion of next week will be highly contingent on the placement of the deep tropical moisture plume and any resultant cloud cover from convective activity, but right now they are forecast to mostly be in the upper 80s to low 90s across South Florida. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Easterly winds 10-15 kts this afternoon with ceilings generally 4-6k ft. Some uncertainty if APF will switch to westerly winds this afternoon, so may have to amend that if the winds stay easterly. && .MARINE... Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Breezy northeasterly winds will continue to prevail across the local Atlantic and Gulf waters this weekend, with winds becoming westerly to west-southwest in the afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. With drier air arriving, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to be much more limited this weekend with most activity expected near the Gulf waters. Higher rain chances return to the nearshore waters next week as deep moisture lifts back into the vicinity of South Florida. Seas are expected to gradually fall this weekend, but will remain 3-5 feet in the Atlantic and 2 feet or less in the Gulf through the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Continuous onshore winds over the next several days will result in a high risk of rip currents prevailing at all east coast beaches through at least Saturday evening. This risk may continue and will remain elevated at the very least into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 88 77 90 / 20 20 10 30 West Kendall 73 90 75 91 / 10 20 10 40 Opa-Locka 76 90 77 91 / 20 20 10 30 Homestead 76 89 77 90 / 20 20 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 77 87 78 88 / 20 20 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 77 87 78 88 / 20 20 10 20 Pembroke Pines 77 91 78 92 / 20 20 10 30 West Palm Beach 76 88 78 89 / 10 20 10 20 Boca Raton 77 88 79 89 / 20 20 10 20 Naples 73 92 76 92 / 10 30 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CMF