833
FXUS62 KMFL 010549
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
149 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026

  - Moderate coastal flooding remains possible through at least
    Sunday. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be
    possible during times of high tide.

  - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the
    Atlantic coast.

  - Slight Risk (level 2/4) for heavy rain leading to isolated
    flash flooding Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Model consensus remains consistent in showing a mid-lvl disturbance
over the E Gulf reaching the Florida peninsula later tonight into
Sunday. POPs/Wx NBM coverage has been in an upward trend during the
past several iterations, with latest solutions pushing max POPs into
the 70-80% range for much of SoFlo Sunday afternoon. The increasing
instability and dynamic forcing ahead of the disturbance will result
in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, starting Sunday
morning. Model PWATs show 2+ inches, along with steeper lapse rates
and increasing CAPE.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall for most of SoFlo on Sunday, which is level 1 of
4. But for the Atlantic metro areas the risk increases to slight
Sunday afternoon, which is level 2 of 4. An important factor is the
saturated soils across the area from all the rain of the past
several days, especially the developed-concrete urban areas, where
localized flooding impacts are expected. An isolated flash flooding
event or two are certainly possible with the heaviest downpours,
training of cells, and with slow or stationary storms.

The ongoing coastal hazards are expected to continue through
Sunday across the Atlantic coastline. Please see the BEACH
forecast section below for specific details about the coastal
products in effect.

Afternoon max temperatures today should remain in the mid-upper 80s,
while overnight lows should drop into the low-mid 70s inland, and
mid-upper 70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For the first part of next week we return to a pattern consisting of
ridging aloft and moderate easterly flow around the base of a low-
level ridge. That means a return to scattered passing showers each
day and night. The pattern will change a bit come mid-week when flow
begins to veer ahead of a developing/approaching frontal system.
There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty around the pre-frontal
environment and how mesoscale features will affect storm
distribution each day, but guidance is in fair agreement of a
frontal passage some time on Friday. How strong and how far south
the surface low will be, and what that means for the potential for
an isolated severe storm or two, remains in question with quite a
bit of model spread. Certainly something to keep an eye on once we
get past this weekends heavy rain threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026

The main concerns today will be gusty winds and periods of heavy
rainfall. While there is high confidence in the wind forecast at
all terminals, the rain forecast remains low. Guidance suggests a
band of heavy rain setting up somewhere along the east coast of
Florida today, with the highest probabilities near FXE and FLL
(included PROB groups here), spreading north closer to DJT in the
late afternoon. Then scattered showers and storms are expected to
become more numerous and widespread late Sunday into Monday
morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase through
the morning, with gusts reaching the 20-25 kt range, while seas will
build up to 7-10 ft (by late tonight) along the Gulf stream.
Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but
will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through
the rest of the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy
easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers remain
possible today, with more widespread rain chances late this weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep a high risk of rip
currents in place for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the
strengthening winds and building seas will result in surf heights
reaching advisory levels by this afternoon along Palm Beach and
Broward beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Though we`re on the back side of the King Tide peak, water levels
are struggling to fall below moderate stage during high tide cycles
due to the persistent, and at times strong, onshore flow. There may
be a brief window where we`re able to fall below moderate flood
stage late Sunday through Monday, but once the easterly flow becomes
established again early next week, guidance indicates the potential
to flirt with moderate flood stage once again. We certainly won`t be
dealing with the levels seen during the peak of the King Tides, but
a prolonged period of at least minor impacts at high tide should be
expected through much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  74  82  74 /  70  80  80  50
West Kendall     84  74  83  74 /  70  70  80  30
Opa-Locka        83  74  83  73 /  80  80  80  50
Homestead        84  74  84  74 /  70  70  80  40
Fort Lauderdale  81  73  81  73 /  80  80  80  60
N Ft Lauderdale  82  74  82  74 /  80  80  80  60
Pembroke Pines   84  73  83  73 /  80  70  80  50
West Palm Beach  82  72  82  72 /  60  70  80  60
Boca Raton       81  73  81  74 /  70  80  80  60
Naples           84  71  83  70 /  80  50  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from 10 AM EDT this morning through Monday afternoon
     for FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan