Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 230716
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
316 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.SHORT TERM (Through Tuesday)...

Deep layer ridging and mid/upper level dry air will keep PoPs
relatively low over the next couple of afternoons. Southeasterly
steering flow will pin the Gulf coast seabreeze along the
southwest Florida coast and focus any isolated convection that can
develop along the Sun Coast. The heat will be the main concern in
the sensible weather as heat indices climb into the middle to
upper 90s region-wide. The highest values are expected each
afternoon across the western half of south Florida.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

The relatively dry pattern mentioned above will continue through
Wednesday. The southern and northern stream will then combine to
amplify the the wave pattern across the CONUS and push the western
Atlantic ridge slightly eastward. This will shift steering flow
more southerly and allow for the advection of more moisture into
the region. Late week into the weekend, expect higher rain chances
as broad synoptic support overspreads the Southeast with the
advance of the northern and southern stream waves. The associated
frontal boundary will remain north of south Florida, but the
increased moisture advection and broad lift will help fuel
seabreeze convection.


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Generally VFR with an easterly to southeasterly breeze. Some
Atlantic showers could move ashore and provide brief bouts of
sub-VFR. Otherwise, gusts should pick up by mid-morning/early
afternoon. A Gulf sea breeze might develop and push inland of APF
providing a focus for showers and storms for the afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Cautionary east to southeasterly flow will continue across the
local waters throughout much of the week as we remain on the
periphery of western Atlantic ridging. Seas will generally remain
in the 2 to 4 foot range. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain
possible, with increasing rain chances after mid-week.

&&

.BEACHES...

Moderate onshore flow and surf around 2 to 3 feet will result in a
continued high risk of rip currents along Atlantic beaches through
at least mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  78  89  78 /  10  10  10  20
West Kendall     89  75  89  75 /  10  10  10  20
Opa-Locka        89  76  89  76 /  10  10  10  10
Homestead        87  76  86  75 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  87  78  86  77 /  10  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  86  77  86  77 /  10  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   88  76  88  76 /  10  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
Boca Raton       88  76  88  77 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           93  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Today through Sunday and Marine/Beaches...Harrigan
Aviation...RAG

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