Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 211340
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
940 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Little change to the current forecast from this morning a
relatively drier air mass, particularly in the mid-levels, has
moved in across South Florida from the Bahamas. The 12Z MFL
sounding shows drier air in the 850-700mb level compared to the
last few days. Overall coverage of convection will be less across
South Florida today. Showers and storms that develop will be over
the interior and Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon and
evening with the most of the east coast remaining dry. A few of
the stronger storms will be capable of producing brief gusty
winds, but the main hazard will be frequent cloud to ground
lightning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 735 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

AVIATION...
A drier air mass than yesterday will limit shower and storm
coverage across the region. Light/variable winds this morning
with the east coast seabreeze moving in around 14Z. Shower and
storm development expected to be far enough inland away from east
coast TAF sites. For APF, Gulf breeze around 17Z there is some
potential for showers and storms but latest models indicate
development will be far enough inland from APF as well but will
monitor throughout the day and handle with amendments as necessary.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Mid level high over the Western Atlantic waters extends into S FL
keeping an easterly flow in place for today. Meanwhile, a strong
upper level trough over the Ohio Valley is expected to progress
eastward gradually pushing the high further east into the Atlantic.
As a result, southeasterly flow will return by mid week. Slightly
drier conditions will be present today with short term models
suggesting lower precipitable water values below 2 inches. An area
of drier air in the Bahamas is also noticeable in the latest GOES
total precipitable water imagery. This will lead to isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon mainly in the
interior and west coast of S FL.

As the high moves further east into the Bahamas for the middle to
end portion of the week, the strong upper trough becomes elongated
across the eastern portion of the CONUS into Wednesday and Thursday.
This will veer winds more southerly Wed into Thu returning deeper
tropical moisture into S FL. Therefore, expect an increase in pops
back into scattered to numerous with the best coverage over the Lake
Okeechobee and interior region for the middle to end of the week.

Into the weekend...Western Atlantic high will build back into the
region returning easterly flow across S Florida this weekend and
early next week. Lingering moisture in the region will allow for
showers and thunderstorms streaming across the area through the end
of the extended.

MARINE...High pressure over the Western Atlantic will keep an
east flow across the waters through mid week. An upper trough will
push the high pressure east veering winds s to southeast mid week.
The increase in moisture content will enhance showers/thunderstorms
through the end of the week. This weekend, high pressure builds
back across the peninsula shifting winds back to easterly flow.
This will allow a few gusty winds between 15 to 20 knots in the
afternoon hrs. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible and
capable of producing strong wind gusts, locally higher seas, heavy
rain, and lightning.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  91  76  90  75 /  10  10  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  89  79 /  10  10  40  20
Miami            92  79  89  77 /  10  10  40  20
Naples           91  78  90  78 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for FLZ069.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...33/Kelly









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