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000
FXUS62 KMFL 221150
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
750 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.AVIATION...
A cold front is stalled just to the south of the area. it may
remain close enough to bring some passing showers to the region
through mainly the afternoon hours. Otherwise, no significant
weather is forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant updates other than too include newest Hi-resolution
models into the short term forecast. A cold front remains stalled
just to our south, and is close enough to keep a chance of
showers in the forecast, mainly for the southern half of the CWA
today. No other changes made to the forecast, other than minor
tweaks to account for current conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A weak cold front has moved through the region
with the latest TAFB surface analysis showing the front across the
southern tip of the peninsula. The front will slow and stall out
across the Florida Straits today. Widespread cloud cover
associated with the front will help to keep the temperatures at or
slightly below climo in the low to mid 80s for the east coast.
However, temps in the western interior and Gulf coast will warm
still slightly above average in the mid to upper 80s. While the
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for the east coast, the
most noticeable difference with this frontal passage will be the
dew point temps lowering today. The dewpoints will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s. This will lower relative humidities keeping
the heat indices/real-feel temps down. A breezy northeasterly
wind flow off the Atlantic today. Overall rain chances will be
fairly low with a few showers possible with some low-level
moisture moving in with the onshore flow off the Atlantic.

Overnight, a few showers possible over the local South Florida
waters. A few of these showers over the Atlantic waters may move
over the east coast metro tonight. Low temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 60s across the interior Lake Okeechobee region and
Gulf coast. For the east coast low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM (Tuesday- Thursday): Wind flow will be northeasterly to
easterly through mid-week. The remnant front will remain near or
drift just north of the area. A slight increase in the moisture will
bring a chance of showers and relatively cloudy skies each day.
The break in temperatures will be short lived as temps will warm
and dewpoints will also increase as we move through the week.

LONG TERM (Friday through the Weekend): As we move towards the end
of the week into the weekend models differ on timing and the
development of features that could impact our weather patten. As of
now, a trough will be moving through the central and eastern CONUS,
as a surface low will develop and deepen in the northern Gulf and
move up eastern seaboard. As the low amplifies, a cold front
draped to its south will works its was through the SE CONUS and
down the Florida peninsula. This will cause an increase in
moisture and an increase in shower and introduce a chance of
thunderstorms across the area beginning Friday continuing into
Saturday. The cold front would pass sometime Saturday. Behind the
frontal passage, breezy conditions and a taste of South Florida
fall-like weather with potential for much lower dewpoints.

MARINE...
Breezy northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gust up to 25 knots
will continue for the Atlantic waters today, behind the cold front
passage. Seas will continue to build to 5 to 8 feet, mainly in the
Gulf stream, and should remain elevated through this evening
evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 8PM EDT this
evening. Seas and marine conditions will gradually improve
Tuesday.

BEACH FORECAST...
Breezy northeasterly wind 15 to 20 mph will continue the next
couple of days. Therefore, there is a High Risk of Rip Currents
at all Atlantic coast beaches through Tuesday evening.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  83  73  85  73 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  82  76  85  76 /  30  20  30  20
Miami            83  74  86  73 /  40  30  40  20
Naples           86  70  87  71 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...33/Kelly
MARINE...33/Kelly
AVIATION...13
BEACH FORECAST...33/Kelly