205
FXUS62 KMFL 262307
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
707 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) lingers around the
Bahamas and Cuba this weekend while a ridge of Atlantic high
pressure sits over Central Florida. To the north, a frontal boundary
remains over the southeastern United States to close out the work
week. As we kick off the weekend, the front will come into phase
with a deep-layered trough over the northeastern United States which
could cause the front to advance south and east, pinching the ridge
back a bit into the Atlantic. Add in some Saharan dust and you have
a warm, unsettled pattern coming into view for the forecast to start
the weekend.

Morning Atlantic convection will transition to an inland convective
focus midday into the early afternoon with a Gulf coast focus late
afternoon into the evening. The potential for recovering tropical
moisture with the passing of the SAL and a slow storm motion could
lead to a localized risk of flooding from excessive rainfall.
Temperatures remain warm with maximums in the lower to mid 90s and
minimums ranging from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the
east coast urban heat island. Heat index values will reach the
triple digits and the few degrees warmer Saturday compared to today
could lead to a Heat Advisory becoming necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Medium-range model guidance continues to show good agreement,
indicating that the ridge will break down a little bit over the
Florida Peninsula as a robust frontal boundary approaches South
Florida from the north beginning on Sunday. The frontal boundary
will then wash out over Central Florida early next week. This
weather pattern will allow for more of southerly wind flow over
South Florida focusing the showers and thunderstorms more over the
eastern areas each day.

Precipitable water values (PWATs) are expected to increase to the
2.0-2.2 inch range Sunday and Monday leading to more widespread
convective activity. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed
much of South Florida under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
on both Sunday and Monday. Given the very light deep-layer flow and
abundant low- to mid-level moisture, isolated flooding from slow-
moving convection will be a daily concern, particularly in
vulnerable low-lying metro areas.

By middle of next week, the subtropical ridge will build over the
western Atlantic, reinforcing a more easterly flow regime over South
Florida. PWATs will remain elevated as any SAL plumes remain south
of the CWA, and daily storm chances will remain elevated.

Temperatures will remain near average for this time of year with
highs in the lower 90s to mid 90s. Lows will also be in the mid to
upper 70s except around 80 over the east coast metro areas. Heat
indices will remain above 100 degrees each day next week over
South Florida.

The National Hurricane Center highlighted an area of disturbed
weather in the Central Atlantic waters early this afternoon.
It is too early to determine any direct impacts to South Florida
late next week as model guidance shows considerable variability
in the potential of development of this disturbance. This is a
good reminder to go over your hurricane check list and supplies as
we are in tropical season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

SCT thunderstorms over the interior will gradually diminish over
the next several hours and then mostly VFR skies expected
overnight. Light SE winds overnight becoming 10-15 kts after 15Z
Saturday, with a Gulf breeze developing at APF after 18Z. SCT
thunderstorms possible again in the afternoon and early evening
Saturday which may result in brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the Atlantic waters
through the upcoming weekend, while winds over the Gulf waters will
likely shift to the SW during the afternoons in response to the Gulf
breeze circulation. Seas will generally decrease to 2 feet or less
through the weekend, outside of any thunderstorms which could
produce locally higher seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  93  80  94 /  20  40  10  50
West Kendall     76  93  78  94 /  20  50  10  50
Opa-Locka        79  93  79  94 /  20  40  10  50
Homestead        79  92  79  92 /  20  30  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  79  93 /  20  40  10  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  79  94 /  20  40  10  60
Pembroke Pines   78  95  79  94 /  20  40  10  50
West Palm Beach  78  93  78  94 /  10  40  10  60
Boca Raton       78  93  79  93 /  10  40  10  60
Naples           76  92  79  92 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....CMP
AVIATION...CMF