Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 291721
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
121 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

...New AVIATION...


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

South Florida will enjoy a generally quiet Memorial Day as light
northerly-northeasterly flow keeps conditions generally dry and
summery. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms could
develop along the sea breeze boundaries in the afternoon, but
with dry air in the mid-levels as suggested by the models and
below-average modeled PWATs in the 1.0-1.3”, expect sparse
convective coverage and meager rainfall accumulations.
Temperatures today will reach the lower 90s across much of
South Florida, with the heat indexes in the mid 90s possible.
Overnight temperatures will also remain warm, with lows in the
mid 70s throughout the region.

Moisture starts to filter back in over the area on Tuesday as
surface winds shift from the east-northeast, resulting in an
increase in chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
along the sea breeze boundaries in the afternoon, especially
over the East Coast metro and interior South Florida. With
easterly flow, temperatures will moderate a bit, with highs on
Tuesday in the upper 80s along the East Coast and lower 90s
over the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Unsettled weather returns towards the end of the week as moisture
continues to filter in with on-shore flow and an upper-level trough
develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Models show the trough approaching
the Florida peninsula between Thursday and Friday, dragging a surface
low and weak boundary towards South Florida. PWAT values will
increase to the 1.6-1.8 range on Wednesday, and could reach up
to 1.9-2.1 inches Thursday and Friday. This setup could result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing on Wednesday
afternoon, followed by more widespread convective activity on
Thursday and Friday. WPC QPF values between Tuesday-Saturday look
to be in the 3-5 inch range area-wide, which raises concerns for
potential localized flooding for the East Coast metro areas.
However, much uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and
location of any impacts, so this possible solution will be
monitored in the interim. Once we head into the weekend,
conditions could dry out as drier air filters in behind the
trough.

High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s through the
end of the week as increased cloud coverage and shower activity
limit daytime heating. The evenings will remain warm, with lows
dropping to the low 70s along the East Coast and mid 60s in the
interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

VFR conditions through the day with potential brief deterioration
to MVFR/IFR with any showers or thunderstorms this afternoon/early
evening. The sea breeze has kicked in at KPBI will continue down
the coast from 18-20Z. Dry conditions and breezy, W/NW winds at
KAPF. BKN/OVC low cloud deck for most of south Florida for the
remainder of the day. Tonight will be dry with light, variable
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Conditions across the Atlantic waters continue to improve today,
with seas along the Gulf Stream subsiding to 2-4 ft by the afternoon,
then dropping to the 1-3 ft range where they’ll stay through the end of
the work week. Light east-northeast flow will prevail. Throughout the
week, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be
possible across all Atlantic waters, resulting in locally rough seas
and gusty winds.

Over the Gulf waters, a light to moderate north to northwesterly
flow will remain in place with seas generally ranging between 1
and 3 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

The risk of rip currents remains high for Palm Beach County
beaches today. Through the middle of the week, the risk will
remain elevated across the East Coast beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  88  77  87 /  20  50  50  70
West Kendall     73  90  73  89 /  20  50  50  70
Opa-Locka        75  89  75  88 /  20  50  50  70
Homestead        74  88  73  87 /  20  50  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  77  86  76  86 /  20  50  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  77  87  76  87 /  20  50  50  70
Pembroke Pines   75  89  75  88 /  20  50  50  70
West Palm Beach  74  87  74  87 /  30  50  50  70
Boca Raton       76  88  75  88 /  30  50  50  70
Naples           74  91  74  90 /  10  50  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Simmons


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