114
FXUS62 KMFL 230600
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION...


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Upper level ridge will continue to dominate the eastern US early
this week, while surface high pressure will remain over the western
Atlantic. The weak impulse that enhanced rainfall over the area
yesterday has moved off to the west and a return to a more typical
summertime pattern is in store for today and Tuesday. With a
moderate easterly flow in place, morning scattered showers and
storms along the coasts are expected this morning and then the focus
for convection will shift to inland and SW FL this afternoon into
early evening. High temps today will remain around seasonal norms
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Convection wanes tonight after sunset with just some isolated
coastal showers expected overnight into Tuesday morning. Low temps
will range from the lower 70s over inland SW FL to around 80 across
the east coast metro. Similar conditions will be in place during the
day Tuesday with afternoon and early evening convection favoring
inland and SW FL. High temps will again be in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Changes are finally starting to take shape for the end of the work
week and into next weekend as the upper level ridge flattens out and
a mid/upper level low impacts the region. This will result in rising
rainfall chances each day Thursday through the weekend. Forecast
soundings show much deeper moisture throughout the column and weak
steering flows. While the focus for much of the convection will
continue to favor inland and SW FL, if the east coast sea breeze
fails to make a significant push inland, portions of the western
metro may be susceptible to periods of heavy rain, which may result
in an increased urban and poor drainage flooding threat, but it`s
still early in the forecast period so this will have to be monitored
throughout the week.

As for temperatures, they will remain near climatological norms with
highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps ranging
from the lower 70s inland SW FL to around 80 across the east coast
metro.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Generally VFR through the mid morning hours, with moderate ESE
flow prevailing. Wind speeds become stronger and gusty after 17Z,
especially over the Atlantic terminals. Isolated coastal showers
will continue this morning across the East Coast. Thunderstorms
may affect most of the terminals after 17Z, then moving further inland
after 20Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Moderate easterly flow is expected through mid week. Seas of 1-3 ft
are expected in both the Gulf and the Atlantic waters. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible each day which may lead to locally
hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Strengthening easterly flow early this week will result in a high
risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through Tuesday. The
flow weakens a bit on Wednesday however the rip risk will likely
remain elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  89  79 /  40  20  50  20
West Kendall     90  76  90  75 /  30  20  60  20
Opa-Locka        90  79  91  79 /  40  20  50  20
Homestead        88  78  89  78 /  40  30  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  88  79  88  79 /  40  30  60  30
N Ft Lauderdale  88  79  89  79 /  40  20  50  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  93  81 /  40  20  50  20
West Palm Beach  89  78  89  79 /  40  20  50  20
Boca Raton       90  79  91  78 /  40  20  50  20
Naples           92  74  92  73 /  70  20  70  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday
     evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17