Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 130027
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
727 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Temperatures are falling into the 60s this evening, with lessening
winds. No changes to this evenings forecast, as a few showers are
possible on east coast areas later tonight, otherwise quiet
conditions prevail.

&&


.AVIATION...Persistent stratocu deck streaming from ATLC across
region bringing FL050-060 cigs to all sites. Expect this to
generally persist through TAF cycle with increasing mid-high
clouds. Winds ENE 5-8kts overnight, though will have to watch
developing ATLC coastal trough as a few sites may back more NE,
especially KPBI. SE flow tomorrow, 8-10kt after 14Z, becoming
gusty 12-15kts with gusts 20-25kts possible after 18Z. Stratocu
may bring a few sprinkles, but no significant rainfall expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)
Wind has turned easterly today as high pressure moved into the
Atlantic. This has allowed for slightly warmer temperatures and
increased moisture. Maxima have still been about 5 degrees below
average for this time of year. Over the next 24 hours or so,
ridging will continue to push further east and Florida weather
will become increasingly impacted by developing lopres over Texas.
Flow will become southerly and strengthen as the work-week comes
to an end. A few showers can`t be ruled out especially northeast
Thursday and Thursday night, but most areas will remain dry, with
temperatures moderating to seasonable warmth.

Friday and Friday night, although now only 48-72 hours out, still
hold an unusual amount of uncertainty in regard to timing of a
cold front that is expected to eventually move through the region.
Although GFS suggest an earlier FROPA Friday night/early Saturday,
but ECMWF and NAM suggest delayed fropa into Saturday night. Have
trended slightly later in the forecast grids for FROPA time, now
toward Saturday morning, which represents a blend/consensus of the
guidance. Based on this forecast timing, the bulk of showers and
thunderstorms would hold off until Friday night, with only low
chances during the day Friday. Regarding risk of strong
convection, nearly unidirectional shear should be quite
significant, but instability will be waning Friday night and the
best dynamics/lift will be north of the region. Still, there
appears to at least some risk of some strong wind gusts in the
projected convective band Friday night, especially over northern
portions of South Florida. Needless to say, this risk and its
evolution based on refinements to FROPA timing, will be closely
monitored.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)

Aforementioned cold front will move through this weekend, bringing
an end to shower and thunderstorm chances as well as some
cooler/drier air. The timing differences have already been
mentioned, but by Sunday at the latest, the front should have
cleared the region.

Into early next week (after FROPA), high pressure returns and NW
will winds prevail, allowing for a dry and pleasant conditions,
along with cooler temps.

MARINE...Seas of up to 7 feet will continue into early evening on
Atlantic waters, where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
until 7 PM. Thereafter, seas and winds will likely remain at
cautionary levels tonight, before becoming more southeast at 10 to
15 KT Thursday. Ahead of a week-end storm system, south and
southeast wind will increase Thursday night into Friday, and this
may necessitate an additional Small Craft Advisory.

Although a low chance of showers will exist beforehand, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Friday into Friday night as a
cold front approaches.

BEACH FORECAST...High risk of rip currents due to NE swell
combined with E/SE wind of 15-20 mph is in effect for Atlantic
waters through Thursday evening. This risk may continue into
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  61  77  71  84 /  20  30  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  64  76  73  82 /  20  10  10  20
Miami            64  79  72  83 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           58  79  68  80 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...23/SBK
AVIATION...88/ALM







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