Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 220515 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
115 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

The winds will remain west northwest around 10 knots today at most
of the taf sites, except for KAPF taf site where the winds will be
light and variable through this morning before going northwest
around 10 knots this afternoon. The weather will remain dry along
with VFR conditions in ceiling and vis.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 850 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018/

No significant updates the evening to the forecast. The main
changes are to cancel the rip current statement for the Gulf coast
and the Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore Gulf waters as the
winds are now 15 to 20 kts in that area.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 828 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018/

VFR conditions behind a cold front, as high pressure build in for
the next several days.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018/

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Latest surface analysis shows primary
frontal boundary moving across the Florida straits at this time
with a secondary boundary lagging behind across South Florida
south of Lake Okeechobee region at this time. This secondary
front should be clearing the region by late afternoon. Breezy
northwesterly flow will usher in cool and dry air behind this
secondary front, though given the timing of the front the coldest
air won`t quite be in place today. That will most likely be
tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Chilly low temperatures  for tonight, dropping into the mid 40s over
the northwest interior, around 50 along the Gulf coast and low to
mid 50s for the east coast.

THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK: High pressure slides into the
eastern US behind the departing system for the end of the week into
the upcoming weekend. Dry conditions will prevail, with temperatures
remaining cool Thursday and Friday in the low to mid 70s. Thursday
night will likely be the coldest night with temperatures ranging
from the low 40s across Glades county to low to mid 50s across
coastal Broward and Miami-Dade.

Then starting Friday, Winds will veer more easterly as the surface
high moves into the Atlantic, which will moderate temperatures
across the region. Expect more seasonable highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s for the weekend, with lows climbing back into the 50s and
mid 60s.

Not much in the way of precipitation is anticipated at this time for
the upcoming week. May be a slight chance on easterly flow by
late this weekend into the early part of next week along eastern
sections of South Florida or the Atlantic waters.

Seas over the Atlantic waters will build tonight to 6 to 8 feet,
mainly in the Gulf Stream. Conditions are not forecast to improve
until late tomorrow so Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through tomorrow for the Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect for the Gulf waters through this evening as seas
gradually subside offshore overnight.

High pressure will move into the area for the weekend, veering winds
to the north-northeast on Friday and east-northeast Saturday, with
speeds decreasing to 10-15kts. Seas will also diminish, leading to
more favorable boating conditions.

The high risk of rip currents will continue along the Gulf
beaches into this evening decreasing to moderate tomorrow and
continuing to subside for the rest of the week as winds become
offshore and decrease. Along the east coast, increasing winds
becoming more onshore as the week progresses will result in rip
current risk increasing to at least moderate tomorrow and may be
high by the end of the week.

Main story for this afternoon will be critical fire conditions as
Min RH drops to around 35% or less which combined with 20 ft
winds of 15 mph and greater particularly in gusts and dry overall
conditions persisting should result in red flag warning conditions
if only for a couple of hours at most in the late afternoon for
most of the interior. Current warnings look good at this time.

Drier conditions are expected Thursday and Friday afternoons, in the
20-30 percent range over most of the region. However, lighter winds
will also preclude the need for any headlines for these days. Winds
becoming northeast and east this weekend should hold RH values above
35 percent, though a few locations across the western interior may
still briefly reach 30-35 percent.

West Palm Beach  50  76  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  51  76  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            52  77  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           48  75  56  80 /   0   0   0   0


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for


BEACH FORECAST...52/PS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.