Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 180807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
407 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

TODAY AND TONIGHT: high pressure continues to dominate the
overall pattern across Florida and the southeastern U.S.,
especially in the mid to upper levels, with a low level trough
approaching the area from the NE already beginning to produce a
few showers over the Atlantic and along the Palm Beach County
coast early this morning. As the morning progresses, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually become more
common over the east coast metro areas, especially closer to
midday. The influence of the low level trough will be most felt
over the interior and Gulf coast this afternoon, as daytime
heating and the Gulf seabreeze pushing inland early this afternoon
should set the stage for numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms moving SW. A few of these storms could be strong
with wind gusts of 40-50 mph as there should be enough instability
for stronger cells. East coast areas should see some improvement
as the afternoon progresses as the drier air with the trough moves
in and the convection generally shifts away from the area. Some
of the showers and storms could linger over western areas and the
Gulf of Mexico waters into the early evening, shortly after
sunset, before dissipating. It should be another hot day over the
interior and Gulf coast areas before the showers and storms move
in, with highs in the lower to the mid 90s and heat index values
100-105F. East coast metro areas will have highs generally around
90 with heat index close to 100.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: models continue to be consistent with the
overall pattern of drier air moving into the region from the
Atlantic. The drier air will be most noticeable from Palm Beach
County across to Lake Okeechobee, Glades and Hendry counties, and
less so for areas to the south. Therefore, PoPs will have quite a
large range on Tuesday, ranging from less than 20% from West Palm
Beach to Lake Okeechobee and Glades County to 60-70% percent over
the southern Everglades, with the Naples area as well as metro
Miami/Fort Lauderdale in the 30-40% range. Timing of precipitation
on Tuesday should follow a typical east flow diurnal pattern of
morning/midday east coast and afternoon/evening interior and Gulf
coast. Warmer and drier air aloft should cut down on the potential
for strong storms, although one or two are not out of the question
over southern areas. Wednesday appears to be the driest day of
the week with the dry air more entrenched area- wide. Still, being
June it`s hard to have a totally dry day and scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms should still develop mainly during
the afternoon hours as the overall wind flow weakens and both the
Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes should push well inland. Wednesday
will also be the hottest of the two days with lower to mid 90s
common away from the coasts and heat index values slightly over
100 degrees.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND: models show the high pressure area
over the Southeast U.S. weakening and shifting south to over
Florida and the western Atlantic. This will help to shift the
surface and low level ridge south of the area, leading to a more
westerly low level wind pattern and favoring most of the
convection over the interior and east coast beginning Thursday and
lasting into the first part of the weekend. Moisture levels will
be near normal for this time of year, which translates to mainly
daytime/afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms away from
the Gulf coast, and less coverage near the Gulf coast. Models hint
at an Atlantic ridge building back over Florida late next weekend,
which could bring a surge of higher moisture from the southeast,
but still plenty of time to look at trends as the new week
progresses. With the west wind pattern, the hottest temperatures
could shift to the eastern areas with lower 90s possible along
with heat index values over 100F.


East wind 10-12 knots today and Tuesday, decreasing on Wednesday
and shifting to SW/W Thursday and Friday at 10 knots or less.
Therefore, outside of showers and thunderstorms which will be most
numerous today and Tuesday, generally good boating conditions
expected as seas should be generally 2 feet or less.


The rip current risk should stay at low levels through the week,
maybe approaching moderate Tuesday at the Atlantic beaches.


West Palm Beach  88  76  88  77 /  30  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  78  87  79 /  50  20  30  10
Miami            90  78  88  79 /  50  20  30  20
Naples           92  78  92  77 /  60  30  30  20



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