929
FXUS62 KMFL 182101
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
401 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Weak mid level ridging will continue to get pushed into the western
Atlantic through the rest of today and into Sunday as a deepening
mid level longwave trough moves out of the Great Plains and heads
towards the Midwest as well as the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface,
the warm front that pushed through the region earlier this morning
will continue to rapidly pull away from South Florida as low
pressure off of the Southeast coast quickly moves northeast in the
Atlantic. This will allow for mainly dry conditions to continue
through the rest of the day along with warm temperatures as a breezy
southwesterly wind flow continues. These winds will gradually
diminsh as the evening progresses and with lower level moisture
advection continuing, this will create a set up for fog potential
later tonight into early Sunday morning. Some of this fog could
become locally dense especially across Southwest Florida as well as
over the Gulf of Mexico and along the extreme southern portion of
the Peninsula along the Florida Bay. In these locations, visibility
may drop to a quarter of a mile or less during the late night and
early morning hours. Low temperatures tonight will generally range
from the lower to mid 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region and
Southwest Florida to the upper 60s across the east coast metro
areas.

During the day on Sunday, a secondary surface area of low pressure
will develop off of the Carolina coastline and move northeastward in
the Atlantic waters as the day progresses. The cold front associated
with this system will gradually push southeastward through Northern
and Central Florida throughout the day. This front will be in a
weakening state as most of the mid to upper level support will be
located well off to the northeast. With plenty of lower level
moisture in place out ahead of the front, the chances of showers
will increase from northwest to southeast on Sunday afternoon. There
may be just enough lift and instability to support the development
of a thunderstorm or two near the Lake Okeechobee region as the
front will be closest to that area during peak diurnal heating. As
the broken line of showers pushes southeastward through the
afternoon, it will lose most of the lift and instability which will
eliminate the thunderstorm threat by the time it gets to the east
coast metro areas. With a dominate southwesterly wind flow still in
place across the region through a good portion of the day, high
temperatures will generally rise into the upper 70s along the west
coast to the lower to mid 80s across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

As far as the synoptic pattern is concerned, there`s not a lot of
spread between the global ensembles for Sunday night through
Monday. A weak shortwave will move from the lower Mississippi
Valley through the Tennessee Valley and finally off the Mid
Atlantic coast with a very brief period of zonal flow aloft in its
wake. While the surface front is expected to be to our South by
Monday, it looks like a southern stream shortwave could generate
lower tropospheric cyclonic response along the trailing 850mb
front and provide enough support to generate Ana-Frontal shower
activity. Highs look like they`ll range from the low 60s near the
Lake to the low 70s along the east coast.

Model spread begins to increase from Tuesday and beyond as it
relates to the development of the next CONUS frontal system. It`s
a complex system as it essentially involves the superpositioning
of a shortwave that originated from the Yukon (now over the Four
Corners region) and one over Manitoba which is forecast to dive
through the Upper Mid-West. Timing is the main source of spread in
the models through Wednesday with this system as the GEFS is
consistently more progressive than the EC ENS, though the EC ENS
does become a little more dispersed between the two solutions by
Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday the challenge becomes resolving the
strength (and to an extent the timing) of another series of
shortwaves emerging from the Northwest Territories and
superpositioning across the central CONUS by late week.

Tuesday, the local sensible weather will be driven primarily at
the low-levels as flow becomes easterly around surface high
pressure, an inverted trough will set up along the western
Atlantic coast in response to the warm Gulf Stream adjacent the
cooler land areas. This will result in a broad area of ascent
across the Peninsula with embedded thunderstorms also possible.
Wednesday becomes a bit more complicated as the aforementioned
northern stream trof moves east and amplifies the western Atlantic
trough, but also kicks it eastward, while at the same time the
trailing shortwave in the trough generated a Gulf low which will
approach from the west. The more progressive solution break off
the trailing energy and result in a more delayed and weaker Gulf
low while the slower solutions keep the system a little more
unified and bring a more energetic system through Florida, with
more rainfall as well. The bulk of the cross ensemble system
members favor the more progressive solution with a little less QPF
(though still rainy) and a less potent Gulf low.

While the intensity and position of another western Atlantic
surface trough depend a lot on the above, models do favor a
continuing wet pattern and a developing trough Thursday into
Friday as we await the next frontal system.

As far as impacts are concerned, it`s pretty much just going to be
cloudy, rainy, and cool. Afternoon highs will remain in the 60s
across the Lake region and low 70s along the east coast, with
overnight lows around 50 near the lake and in the low to mid 60s
along the east coast. Total QPF amounts through the period will
average anywhere from an inch to 3" depending on the evolutions
mentioned above. So, impactful rain amounts are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours.
Gusty SW winds across all terminals will gradually subside this
evening. Areas of low clouds and fog will develop late tonight
into early Sunday morning creating the potential for MVFR or IFR
ceilings especially at KTMB and KAPF. Some periods of MVFR could
also develop along the rest of the east coast terminals as the
low cloud deck tries to push eastward. VFR returns by the middle
of Sunday morning as winds increase out of the SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

A fresh to strong southwesterly breeze will lead to hazardous
marine conditions across the Atlantic waters this afternoon before
it slowly diminishes as the evening progresses. Over the Gulf
waters, a gentle to moderate southwesterly wind flow tonight will
increase out ahead of an approaching frontal boundary and become
moderate on Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters on Sunday
afternoon. Behind the front, winds will shift and become northerly
on Sunday night while increasing heading into the early portion of
the week. This could result in another period of hazardous marine
conditions during this time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
Coast beaches tonight. The risk may become elevated across the Gulf
coast beaches later on Sunday behind a cold front as winds become
north northwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            69  83  61  70 /   0  10  30  30
West Kendall     66  83  59  72 /   0   0  30  30
Opa-Locka        68  84  60  72 /   0  10  30  30
Homestead        68  83  61  72 /   0   0  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  68  82  60  69 /   0  10  30  30
N Ft Lauderdale  68  83  60  69 /   0  10  30  30
Pembroke Pines   69  83  61  72 /   0  10  30  30
West Palm Beach  67  83  58  68 /   0  20  20  30
Boca Raton       67  83  59  70 /   0  10  30  30
Naples           67  76  55  66 /   0  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...CWC