Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 242344 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
744 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Forecast remains on track this evening with another round of
spring weather continuing through the evening and overnight hours.
A little more in the way of clouds for tomorrow, but again, should
be the last dry day before weather ramps back up. Adjusted thunder
grids for Friday to account for the Marginal Risk for severe
weather. Otherwise, no changes to the ongoing forecast.

The winds will be light easterly tonight over all of the taf
sites, before increasing to 10 to 15 knots on Thursday. The only
exception is at KAPF taf site where the winds will become westerly
in the afternoon hours. The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR
conditions along with dry weather at all of the taf sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

Another cliched South Florida day with plenty of sunshine to go
around. Temperatures today ranged about 1 to 4 degrees below
normal with near normal temperatures expected again for tomorrow.
Dry conditions are also expected for Thursday, though a little
more sprinkling of some stratocu`s will prevail as an increase in
moisture pools into the region.

Friday is where things get interesting. Not only will temperatures
rise 3 to 5 degrees above normal, rain/thunderstorm chances
return. Latest SPC guidance for Day 3 has a good chunk of Florida
in a "marginal" risk, including all of Palm Beach, Hendry, Glades,
and Collier counties along with most of Broward county and
portions of Mainland Monroe and Miami-Dade counties. A mid-level
shortwave pushing across the southern CONUS will initially be
positive-tilted before shifting to a neutral-tilt Thursday night
into Friday. Then Friday night, this shortwave will amplify and
become negatively-tilted. Simultaneously, a weak surface low
ahead of the aforementioned trough will extend its associated cold
front over the Gulf of Mexico and across the peninsula during
this time frame (Friday night into Saturday). As this front moves
closer, moistening air and a turn from E to SE to eventually SW
wind flow is forecast. This in conjunction with forced ascent from
the system, warm surface temps, and abnormally cool 500 mb
temperatures (forecast to be around -11 degrees C where average
for this time of year is about -9.5 degrees C), thunderstorms will
be possible, with perhaps a couple being on the stronger end. At
the present moment, the higher chances look to be over the Gulf
and Atlantic waters and across coastal cities where instability is
highest, but they can not be ruled out entirely over the rest of
South Florida.

Ultimately, at this point in time, the threat of any strong to
severe storms will depend on a few factors that should be
monitored over the coming days. One of those factors is just how
warm it gets along with cloud coverage. Another factor is the
frontal boundary itself. Really, the best advice is to monitor the
evolution of the forecast for Friday into the weekend.

Frontal boundary wise, both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF now carry the
front into South Florida early Saturday morning, though NW winds
will be short lived and temps look to stay in the mid 80s

By early next week, broad ridging aloft will build back across the
region while a surface ridge builds over the western Atlantic with
drier weather expected mid-week.

Generally light E flow will shift from the SE throughout Thursday
due to surface high pressure. A cold front moves through late in
the week into early portions of the weekend. Some increasing winds
could lead to cautionary conditions, especially for the Atlantic.
Otherwise, marine conditions should remain generally favorable
with the chances of showers and thunderstorms increasing Friday
through the weekend.

High pressure is forecast to maintain VFR conditions and quiet
weather through the TAF period. The Gulf breeze is forecast to
develop this afternoon, as well as tomorrow afternoon.

West Palm Beach  68  83  72  87 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  71  82  74  87 /  10  10  10  20
Miami            70  83  73  88 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           68  84  71  84 /   0   0  10  30



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