Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 222346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
746 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites
through the forecast period. Isolated showers may develop along
southeastern portions of South FL through the evening. Locally
higher wind gusts and VIS reductions may accompany any shower that
does develop. Winds generally NE becoming ENE by tomorrow. A Gulf
sea-breeze may develop near APF and cause a SW wind shift tomorrow


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021)

SHORT TERM (Through Friday)...

Latest surface analysis has South Florida wedged between two frontal
boundaries; one that resides over the Florida Straits and another
that is currently draped across the Lake Okeechobee region. Given
there still remains ample moisture across the area, sufficient
daytime heating could work together with the incoming frontal
boundary to result in isolated convection this afternoon and
evening, especially for the southern inland and metro areas. While
updraft strength should be limited with other factors for severe
convection being less favorable, can`t rule out locally gusty winds
with any stronger storms that develop.

High pressure then builds into region on Friday, resulting in
breezier conditions across South Florida as the pressure gradient
tightens. Additionally, surface winds will continue veering out of
the east, maintaining rich boundary-layer moisture across the area.
This enhanced low-level moisture, combined with daytime heating and
weak lift generated by the frontal boundary in the vicinity could
provide the necessary ingredients for another day of isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Albeit, modest forcing for ascent should
once again act to limit intensity of any storms that develop.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Thursday)...

A shortwave is forecast to move from the Southern Plains through
the Deep South, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast over the course of
the weekend. At the surface, the associated frontal boundary will
reach central Florida by the end of the weekend and become more
diffuse and eventually wash-out over south Florida. A high
amplitude ridge will build in behind the shortwave early next
week, followed by a high amplitude trough to end the period.
There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the depth and
timing of the mid-to late week (next week) trough, but worth
watching late next week as it could result in a rather dynamic
system moving through the Deep South.

As far as the local sensible weather is concerned, veering flow
around the sub-tropical ridge will result in a more moist and
unstable airmass advecting northward. This will result in nightly
Gulf Stream convection that may advect inland along the southeast
Florida coast both Saturday and Sunday morning. Scattered showers
and possibly a storm or two will be possible along the
aforementioned, weakening frontal boundary Sunday into Monday, but
most of the forcing associated with that front will be far removed
from South Florida. The remainder of the period will remain mostly
dry with mainly just scattered convection along the Gulf Stream
and adjacent coastal areas.


Predominately VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites
through the forecast period. Isolated SHRA/TSRA may develop later
this afternoon/evening, particularly over SE portions of South
Florida. Locally higher wind gusts, VIS reductions, and lightning
may accompany any developing storm. Winds generally NE becoming
ENE as time progresses, aside from the Gulf coast where a
developing sea-breeze may cause a westerly wind shift near APF.


Generally benign marine conditions prevail today outside of isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the Atlantic waters, where locally
gusty winds will be possible. As a weak frontal boundary quickly
pushes through the area, strengthening easterly winds will result in
cautionary conditions across the local waters from Friday morning
through the upcoming weekend.


The risk of rip currents will increase across the Atlantic
beaches late this week and remain elevated through the upcoming
weekend as onshore winds strengthen.


Miami            72  84  74  87 /  20  30  20  20
West Kendall     70  85  73  88 /  40  30  20  10
Opa-Locka        70  83  72  87 /  20  30  20  20
Homestead        72  83  73  86 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  82  75  86 /  10  30  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  72  81  74  85 /  10  30  20  20
Pembroke Pines   70  83  73  87 /  20  30  20  20
West Palm Beach  68  81  72  85 /  10  20  20  30
Boca Raton       70  82  73  86 /  10  20  20  20
Naples           67  87  70  87 /   0  20   0  10




Tonight/Friday and Marine...HVN
Friday Night through Thursday...Harrigan

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