Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 241447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1047 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

Few showers on Atlantic waters this morning, otherwise conditions
have been fairly dry. Airmass appears somewhat favorable for
Bahamas streamers and waterspouts today, so will be monitoring for
each. Otherwise, east coast should be fairly dry with activity
development over or just west of western suburbs along Atlantic
sea breeze. Showers and thunderstorms are likely later in the
afternoon across the western interior, similar to previous few
days, and 12z sounding shows some downburst potential. Some wind
estimates of 40 to 50 mph late afternoon yesterday in Naples, so
will be adding in potential for a few strong wind gusts into HWO.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 804 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018/

Few showers may impact east coast during the day, possibly
continuing overnight. For Naples, Gulf breeze will transition east
wind to SW early afternoon, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected in association with it into early evening.
VFR conditions will prevail with light/calm winds overnight and E
wind around 10 knots during the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018/

Latest WPC analysis shows a stationary front extending from the
Carolinas out towards the Atlantic, with weak high pressure
further south, across our region. Meanwhile, on this mornings
water vapor imagery loop, an inverted trough/developing low
pressure system could be noted about halfway between Florida and
Bermuda. Satellite derived PWAT clearly indicated an increase in
moisture associated with this feature, with values up to over 2"
surrounding it. Through this afternoon, models prog this low to
move west northwestward, with little influence on our CWA. With
the lack of any strong features approaching South Florida, expect
the weather to be status quo today with sea breeze driven
thunderstorms that will move westward this afternoon, mainly over
the interior and Gulf coast regions, though isolated activity
could develop elsewhere. 500 mb temps should range between
-6 to -7 C, typical for this time of year. Thus, expecting the
main threats with the storm activity to be brief torrential heavy
downpours, cloud to ground lightning, and winds to around 45 mph.
Maximum temperatures this afternoon are forecast near 90 degrees
along the coasts and low 90s inland, a degree or two warmer than
normal for this time of year.

A rather stagnant synoptic pattern is expected to ensue Tuesday
through late week, as high pressure near Bermuda begins to
elongate and expand towards the Carolinas. Clockwise motion around
the high should allow for persistent easterly flow across South
Florida. Typical of late summer and early autumn, rounds of
showers and the occasional thunderstorm will move over east coast
metro from the Atlantic during the nights and early mornings.
Convection will be mainly sea breeze driven, developing inland
from the east coast and drift westward during the late afternoons
and evenings. Through the extended, maximum temperatures are
forecast in the upper 80s along the coastal locations and lower
90s inland.

Weak to moderate easterly or southeast flow will
persist through early this week across the local waters, along
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Stagnant high
pressure across the mid-Atlantic should allow easterly or east
southeasterly flow to continue through the end of this week,
generally up to 10 KT.

A northeast swell will bring a moderate risk of rip currents to
the Atlantic beaches through the next several days. The highest
risk of rip currents will exist along the northern most beaches
of Palm Beach county.

West Palm Beach  90  77  90  78 /  20  30  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  89  80 /  30  30  30  20
Miami            91  77  90  79 /  30  20  20  20
Naples           90  75  90  76 /  50  30  30  20



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