Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 172354
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
754 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.AVIATION...
Showers have generally ended for the evening although a few showers
may remain in vicinity of PBI through 11 PM or so.  VFR conditions
should dominate Wednesday, with even less coverage of convection
than today.  Although isolated thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon, will hold now with just VCSH due to uncertainty in
coverage and proximity to the coasts.  Calm wind tonight, generally
south 10 knots or so by late morning through evening Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Shower and thunderstorm activity for the evening is beginning to
diminish as we approach sunset. Any lingering activity should
clear out of northern portions of the area by 10 or 11PM. A
relatively dry night in store for much of the area as activity
will shift out over the waters. Minor changes to the current
forecast to account for lingering showers across the area.
Otherwise, no other changes as current forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: Diurnal heating with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s across South Florida has allowed scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening.
Storms will continue to develop along sea breeze and outflow
boundary interactions. Activity will begin to decrease after
sunset before shifting over the waters for the overnight and
early morning hours.

Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s across South
Florida with some coastal regions around 80 degrees tonight.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A trough associated with a cold front is
moving across the eastern CONUS and into northern Florida today
before stalling will north of the region with a fairly strong
gradient of precip chances and precipitable water level values
(PWATs) across the peninsula. The western Atlantic ridge will
begin to build toward the southern Florida peninsula with winds
veering southerly and southwesterly through week. A Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) can be seen on water vapor and visible satellite
imagery across much of the Caribbean and the Bahamas. This will
work its way into South Florida tomorrow and linger across the
area for the next few days to help lower rain chances. Model
soundings across South Florida show PWATs below average for this
time of year around 1.4-1.6 inches through Thursday, with fairly
dry mid-levels. However, under southwesterly flow any showers and
storms that do develop will concentrate across the northern and
northeastern portions of the area.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in
the mid 70s across the interior and gulf coast to the upper 70s to
around 80 along the east coast. Heat index values the next few days
will be 100-106 across much of the area.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: Friday into the weekend there is
uncertainty with a trough across the SE CONUS and northern Florida
and the ridge breaking down. For now the current forecast shows the
ridge breaking down with a return of wind flow to south
southeasterly with more moisture and increased POPS to around climo
for the weekend.

MARINE...
The western Atlantic ridge will build westward through the
week. Veering wind from southerly to southwesterly flow across the
South Florida waters. Showers and storms will be a concern for all
the waters through the period, though coverage will be less the next
few days. Locally higher winds and seas are possible near any
thunderstorms that do develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  93  78  92 /  30  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  79  93  78  92 /  20  30  20  20
Miami            79  92  79  92 /  20  30  10  10
Naples           78  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...33/Kelly
DISCUSSION...33/Kelly
MARINE...33/Kelly
AVIATION...23/SK






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