Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 170527
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1227 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Northwest winds will continue through the overnight hours at 5 to
10 kts across the east coast terminals. These winds will shift to
the northeast at around 10 knots later on Saturday morning. At
KAPF, the wind shift to the northeast will occur early Saturday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 804 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018/

UPDATE...
Weather over South Florida will remain quiet for the rest of this
evening as a drier airmass continues to filter in behind the cold
front that is well south of the area. This drier air can be seen in
satellite derived PWATs. Winds will remain mostly out of the north.
Tight surface pressure gradients will allow winds to become breezy
at times. A small craft advisory over the Atlantic waters has
expired. Otherwise, no major changes are expected for the forecast
as everything else seems on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018/

AVIATION...
BKN/OVC ceilings around 5,000 ft will linger at FLL-MIA area sites
through 07z-09z, becoming FEW/SCT thereafter. Mostly clear skies
will prevail at KAPF and KPBI through the period. N-NW winds less
than 10 knots will become NE 10-12 knots after 16z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (Tonight-Sunday): Minimal shower activity is present on
radar over the Gulf and Atlantic waters. Currently, satellite
derived PWATS exhibit drier values ranging from 1.0-1.4" filtering
in across southern and eastern portions of South Florida while
values below 1.0" are present along the western counties. This
will keep shower activity low tonight and for the remainder of the
weekend as high pressure continues to build over the area keeping
a north-northeasterly wind flow. Low temperatures will range
tonight from the low to mid 60`s for the eastern metro areas and
upper 50s along the western region. While along the northwestern
interior, temperatures range from the upper 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM (Monday-Thursday): As we enter into the early portions
of next week, winds will become more easterly as the
aforementioned area of high pressure moves up the eastern
seaboard. The return of a more easterly wind flow will increase
low-level moisture and thus a chance of showers for South Florida.
As we approach the middle of the week into Thanksgiving, model
guidance from the GFS and ECWMF suggest a shortwave trough
entering into the Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday into early
Thursday. Currently, guidance exhibits enough upper level dynamics
to develop a closed surface low that tracks over Florida by next
weekend. This will have the potential to increase showers and
thunderstorms for our area. Certainly, the timing of this
cyclogenesis and approach to our area is within the extended
period. It will be something of interest to monitor next week.

MARINE...
Hazardous Marine conditions will persist across the
Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters Friday. A small craft advisory
remains in effect for the local waters through this evening.
Biscayne Bay and Lake Okeechobee will experience cautionary
conditions as well. Gusty northwest to north winds will remain in
place through Saturday. Marine conditions will slowly begin to
improve during the upcoming weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  80  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  80  71  82  73 /  10  10  10  10
Miami            81  69  83  70 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           80  62  83  65 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...55/CWC






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