981
FXUS66 KMFR 061703
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
903 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025

.UPDATE...Sent a dense fog advisory for portions of the Rogue
Valley until noon today. Fog has become locally dense this
morning with visibility lowering to 1/4 of a mile or less. KMFR
airport RVR (runway visual range) indicating as low as 1600 feet
and traffic cameras indicating reduced visibility along I-5 from
Gold Hill south to around Ashland. Local surrounding cities
(Central Point, White City, Phoenix, Talent) are also affected.
Some areas north of Grants Pass will also have fog this morning,
but visibilities over there are generally a bit higher than here
locally and impacts are not as widespread. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025/

DISCUSSION...A dirty ridge over the area has allowed the storm
track to be just far enough south for intermittent light rain over
Douglas and northern Coos County. Radar image is showing very light
returns in these areas. The frontal boundary will remain nearly
stationary through this evening with the core of the heavier
precipitation remaining north of the forecast area.

Meanwhile, stable conditions farther south have resulted in fog and
low clouds in the Illinois, and Rogue Valleys. Meanwhile, satellite
image shows signs of stronger winds aloft along and east of the
Cascades.

Little if any precipitation is expected today through tonight, then
a warm front will move into the area bringing light to moderate
rain, especially along the north coast, coastal mountains and
Cascades late tonight into Sunday. With a strong westerly flow
aloft, rainfall is expected to be mainly along and west ofthe
Cascades with dry weather likely mostly hours and locations east of
the Cascades tonight through Sunday.

There`s good agreement the front will weaken as it remains nearly
stationary late this evening through Saturday. The net result will
be decreasing precipitation late this evening with most hours and
locations dry late tonight through Saturday.

The general consensus for most of next week keeps the bulk of the
rainfall north of the forecast area. However intermittent light is
expected in northern Douglas and Coos County on the southern
fringes of the heavier core of rainfall which is likely to be
mainly from about Eugene up to western Washington next Monday
through Wednesday.

The one grey area could be Tuesday with some of the operational
models and individual ensemble members suggesting the frontal
boundary could slip far enough south to bring moderate to
occasionally heavy precipitation for a brief period of time to the
area Tuesday before the core of heavier precipitation lifts back
north as an upper ridge builds over the area. It`s possible it
could end up dry the latter part of next week if this pans out.

It should be noted that during this time, snow levels will be above
all the passes, therefore the concern for snow is next to zero.
-Petrucelli

AVIATION...06/12z TAFs...Stable conditions along with ample low
level moisture has resulted in low ceilings and reduced visibilities
for most areas west of the Cascades, including areas of fog and low
clouds at the Medford terminal and Merlin airport. Guidance shows
low clouds and fog possibly persisting through 19z, before ceilings
and visibility improve in the afternoon.

Moderate to strong winds aloft will result in turbulence along and
east of the Cascades with stronger winds near and at the ridges. Low
level wind shear remains a concern at Klamath Falls this morning due
to an inversion preventing the stringer winds from mixing near and
at the surface. Most locations east of the Cascades should remain
VFR through the TAF period. -Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Saturday, December 6, 2025...South
winds are expected today as the next system approaches the area.
Steep seas will build further due to increasing northwest swell.
After a brief period of improved conditions tonight, gusty south
winds and steep seas return Sunday, especially north of Cape Blanco.
Conditions remain unsettled through the first part of next week,
with several fronts bringing periods of gusty south winds and a
likelihood of high and steep seas. -BPN/Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ026.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for
     PZZ350-370.

&&

$$

MAS/MAS/MAS