725
FXUS62 KMHX 160736 CCA
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
236 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front moves through ENC today, bringing
elevated fire weather conditions to much of the area this afternoon.
Cooler high pressure then builds back in from the northwest early
this week, with another quick moving front pushing through the area
by mid-week. Behind this system, a warming trend will bring
increasing temperatures through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

 - Dry cold front passes through today

 - Red Flag Warning is in effect for Martin, Pitt, and Greene counties
   Sunday afternoon, with an Increased Fire Danger Statement in
   effect for much of the rest of ENC this afternoon (see Fire
   Weather section for more details)

Winds have increased across the area through early Sunday morning as
the pressure gradient has tightened across the region as a low
pressure system works its way across southern Canada. This system`s
attendant dry cold front will push through ENC this afternoon,
bringing a switch in wind direction to northwesterly. Winds are
expected to be 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph across ENC this
afternoon (gusts of 30-35 mph OBX). Temps will rise into the mid-70s
across the area under mostly sunny skies. The combination of falling
dewpoints behind the front leading to low RH values of 25-35%, wind
gusts up to 30 mph, and warm conditions will yield elevated fire
weather concerns across ENC this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...Cold air advection behind today`s
frontal passage will lead to falling temperatures Sunday night,
with lows dropping to near 40 (near 50 OBX). Thus, overnight
lows Sunday night are expected to be at least 15-20 F cooler
than tonight. Pressure gradient will remain pinched as high
pressure begins to build in from the west, with some gusts of
30-35 mph remaining possible along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

 - Elevated fire weather concerns expected again Monday afternoon

 - Moisture starved cold front Tuesday night

 - Stronger frontal system possible late week/early next weekend

High pressure will build in behind Sunday`s cold frontal passage,
keeping the weather dry through the start of the week with highs
rebounding to the upper 50s/lower 60s on Monday and low to mid 60s
on Tuesday. Continued dry, downslope flow will result in another
round of elevated fire weather concerns on Monday, with RH`s
dropping to 20-30% and northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20
mph across much of ENC. Similar dry RH`s are expected Tuesday
afternoon, but wind will be much lighter as high pressure becomes
centered over the mid-Atlantic coastline.

Another cold front will cross ENC Tuesday night, but
this one also looks fairly moisture starved with only slight chance
PoPs in the forecast for northern zones. Guidance has trended
towards stalling this boundary across the region through the later
half of the week, but this is only expected to bring increased cloud
cover with no rain chances expected. Temperatures will reach the low
to mid 70s Wednesday through Saturday.

Next weekend looks to bring a stronger frontal system that will
bring a better chance of rain to the area (20-30%).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - LLWS concerns across rtes through 13z

 - Gusty WSW winds around 25-30 kt this morning become NW
   behind a dry cold front this afternoon

 - Crosswind impacts expected at KEWN and KISO behind the front
   this afternoon

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, however
will see increasing WSW flow through this morning ahead of a
dry cold front. A strong low-level jet has developed across rtes
early this morning with KMHX VWP showing 50 kt at 2k ft, which
is producing LLWS concerns at the terminals. LLWS will ease
around 13z as deeper mixing develops but that will bring gusty
WSW winds to the sfc with gusts around 25-30 kt through this
morning. The front is progged to push across rtes early to mid
afternoon with winds becoming NW while continuing to gust around
25-30 kt and could see occasional gusts to 35 kt for a couple
of hours behind the front. Post frontal wind direction will
bring crosswind concerns at EWN runway 4R/22L and the ISO
runway. Moisture is limited with the front and don`t expect any
precip and only few-sct clouds around 5k ft. Winds diminish
to less than 10 kt fairly quickly this evening across inland
rtes but will remain elevated along the coast.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Sunday night through Tuesday
with high pressure building across the region. A couple of weak
systems transit the area Tuesday night through Thursday that
could bring isolated showers across rtes with lower cigs,
however guidance keeps VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 AM Sunday..

Key Messages:

 - Gale Warnings in effect for the coastal waters south of Oregon
   Inlet

 - Small Craft Advisories in effect for all other waters

 - SCA conditions linger into Monday

Winds have increased through early Sunday morning in response
to the tightening pressure gradient across the region. Current
obs show winds 25-30 kts with gusts to around 40 kts across the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and winds 15-20 kts with
gusts 20-25 kts across the northern coastal waters and
sounds/rivers. Winds will peak over the next several hours
before beginning to decrease late this morning. A dry cold front
pushing through the region will bring another surge and a wind
shift to northwesterly this afternoon, with elevated winds
lingering into Monday. Conditions will then begin to improve on
Monday, with winds decreasing to 10-15 kts (gusts to 20 kts) by
Monday afternoon.

Seas have responded to the increasing winds, building to 5-8 ft
south (3-5 ft north) of Oregon Inlet. Seas will peak this
morning ahead of the cold frontal passage at 6-10 ft south of
Cape Hatteras, 5-9 ft north of Cape Hatteras, and 4-7 ft across
the northern waters. Waves will begin to subside as winds shift
to northwesterly behind the cold front, falling to 3-7 ft Sunday
evening and subsiding further to 2-5 ft by Monday afternoon.

Outlook: Winds will be back to the SW late Tuesday and largely
remain west/southwesterly through the end of the week. A
stronger frontal system is then expected late weekend/early
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 2 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

 - Red Flag Warning in effect for Martin, Pitt and Greene
   Counties this afternoon

 - An Increased Fire Danger Statement for much of the remainder
   of eastern North Carolina this afternoon

A cold front is approaching eastern North Carolina this morning
and will push across the area early to mid afternoon. Ahead of
the front expect west-southwest winds around 10-20 mph with gust
25-30 mph and relative humidity above 50 percent. However,
behind the front, winds will shift to northwest with the
potential for gusts up to 35 mph while relative humidity values
drop to around 25-35 percent for areas away from the immediate
coast. Given the ongoing dry/drought conditions, the gusty winds,
low relative humidity and shifting winds will lead to critical
fire weather conditions across much of ENC this afternoon.

Relative humidity will be lowest across far northwest sections
of the FA have have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red
Flag Warning for Martin, Pitt and Greene Counties. An Increased
Fire Danger Statement has been issued for much of the rest of
ENC, with the exception of OBX and Downeast Carteret County
where relative humidity is expected to remain above 40 percent.

High pressure builds into the area Monday and Tuesday with a dry
airmass remaining across the region and expect minimum relative
humidity to drop to around 25-35 percent during the afternoon,
however, winds will be lighter leading to less critical fire
weather conditions.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     NCZ029-044-079.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...ZC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX