475
FXUS62 KMHX 010548
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1248 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push across the region tonight with high
pressure briefly building in from the north Monday. A strong low
pressure system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday.
High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through
midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 7 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

 - Scattered showers associated with a cold front will move
   through overnight bringing light rainfall amounts

Skies will continue to increase this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front, currently moving through central NC.
Regional radar showing patchy light rain beginning to blossom
over the area. Rain chances will continue to increase overnight
as the mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front pushes
across the region. Moisture and dynamics remain rather meager
and not expecting much precip, mainly less than a couple tenths
of an inch. The front is progged to push across ENC mid to late
evening with CAA ramping up after midnight with temps bottoming
out in the upper 30s/lower 40s inland and mid to upper 40s along
the coast around daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

 - Cool weather returns Monday with highs around 10 degrees
   below normal

High pressure briefly builds in from the north bringing dry and
cooler conditions Monday with breezy north winds. Skies will be
variably cloudy with clearing skies through the morning but
will see increasing clouds through the afternoon as the next
storm system strengthens across the deep South. Temps will be
around 10 degrees below normal with highs around 50 inland to
mid 50s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing
   the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal
   flooding

 - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
   temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   late in the week.

Broad upper troughing across the CONUS with a series of
embedded shortwaves will push across the region through the long
term. A rather robust trough pushes into the Mississippi River
Valley Monday night then quickly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday. Low pressure will rapidly deepen off the Southeast
coast late Monday night and lift along the Carolina coast
Tuesday morning, then quickly depart the area Tuesday afternoon.
Guidance is a bit faster with the system but there continues to
be some difference with the low track with most North American
models continuing to track the low inland across the coastal
plain while most European models show the low tracking right
along to just off the coast. A more inland track will bring
parts of ENC on the "warm" side of the low bringing the
potential for some convective elements and thunder, but this
should be mostly confined to the coast east of US 17, and over
the marine waters. Meanwhile, a coastal track will generally
keep convection off to just along the coast. A plume of
anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of a
period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low.
Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue to show a
notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is much needed
as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. Given
the antecedent dry conditions, the flooding threat will be
nominal but cannot rule out minor nuisance flooding in areas
that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rain rates.

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to
closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside
flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large
waves, and a higher tide cycle. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
section for more information.

Could see a few showers linger into Tuesday evening but
conditions quickly improve overnight as high pressure builds
into the area and strong CAA develops. Temps will plummet to the
upper 20s to lower 30s inland to low 40s coast. High pressure
will bring below normal temps Wednesday and Thursday with temps
around 5-10 degree below normal.

Precip chances increase again late in the week as the next
northern stream shortwave digs into the central CONUS and a low
pressure system lifts along the Southeast coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM...Light rain ongoing ahead of a cold front
currently located across the coastal plain. This cold front will
push offshore by 10Z, with drier northerly winds ushering in
behind it. Currently, ahead and along the front we have
generally MVFR ceilings with pockets of VFR and IFR sprinkled
in. Expecting MVFR conditions to continue along and ahead of the
front over the next couple hours, with drops to IFR possible
east of hwy 17 where there is better lower level moisture to
bring ceilings lower. Ahead of the front, we are also seeing fog
quickly develop as a brief period of calm winds ahead of the
front help reduce visibilities in Carteret, Craven, Jones, and
Onslow counties. While unlikely, as the front moves through
there could be a 1-2 hour period of light to calm winds before
the cold air advection moves in, allowing for a brief period of
fog to form once the rain ends. Low confidence has prevented me
from going lower than 6SM BR in the TAFs, but this will be
worth monitoring. Ceilings and visibilities rapidly raise as dry
air filters into ENC before sunrise with ENC forecast to be
back to VFR conditions between 8-12z.

This afternoon, skies remain VFR with gusty northerly winds near
20 knots as high pressure builds in. We then pivot to
deteriorating conditions Tuesday morning as a low pressure
system approaches the region, dropping ceilings to MVFR/IFR
from south to north.

Outlook: Widespread sub- VFR likely Tuesday as a low pressure
system is forecast to lift along the coast. High pressure builds
back into the area Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR
conditions expected. Another system Friday can bring drops to
sub-VFR again.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

 - Small Craft conditions expected tonight through Monday
   afternoon behind a cold front

 - Gale Watch issued for portions of the coastal waters for
   Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system which will track
   over the Carolinas

 - Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into
   Wednesday

Currently seeing southerly winds around 10-20 kt with seas
around 2-3 ft across the coastal waters this afternoon. A cold
front will cross the waters this evening causing winds to switch
to the NW and increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts.
Strong northerly winds continue Monday morning, with conditions
slowly improving through the day. Seas will build to 4-6 ft in
response to stronger winds, then subside below 6 ft Monday
afternoon.

Outlook: Fair boating conditions will briefly continue Monday
night, but this will be short lived as a strong low pressure
system moves into the coastal waters Tuesday morning. Gale
conditions are expected across the coastal waters south of
Oregon Inlet with winds S 20-30 kts with gusts to 40 kts with
seas building to 7-13 ft. There remains potential for Gale
conditions to develop in other marine zones, but this will
depend on the exact track and strength of this system as is
passes by ENC.

Conditions improve through the day Wednesday as high pressure
builds into the area bringing light winds and seas. A backdoor
front is progged to push south across the waters Thursday night
and could see minor SCA conditions for a brief period late
Thursday night, mainly in gusts. Reinforcing high pressure
briefly builds into the area Thursday but another potential low
pressure system may impact the waters late Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 7 PM Sun...A strong low pressure system moving through
North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This
comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through
Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor
coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early
Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and
direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the
eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a
result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity
are still unclear at this time. Though there is potential for
localized ocean overwash on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, esp
around high tide, which could impact portions of NC-12 Tue.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD/SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX