573
FXUS62 KMHX 081145
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
645 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move off the coast early today with low
pressure developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions
of the area. High pressure will build back over the area mid
week. Another low and cold front move in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Key messages...

 - Wintry mix develops this afternoon across northwest
   counties.

Light mixing has allowed visibilities to improve early this
morning and have cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory.

A challenging forecast continues through the short term as a
shortwave trough swings through the Southeast states and
cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast. A combination of
lowering thicknesses through the day, along with column cooling
through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead to rain
changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our nwrn
counties. Model differences persist with similar biases as
previously discussed, (NAM/FV3/GFS) indicating a colder column
and more rapid changeover to snow, while the Euro, AIFS, CMC,
HRRR are warmer aloft and retain snow the far northwest.

Latest guidance has trended downward slightly with snowfall
amounts, although probabilities for 1" of snow continue around
~40-60% along the Hwy 64 corridor from western Washington Co to
northern Pitt Co, including nearly all of Martin Co, and will
keep the Winter Wx Advisory for these counties. Probabilities
drop to less than 30% south of the Hwy 264 corridor, which makes
the most sense, as temps will be well above freezing through
the day, making it difficult for snow to accumulate. The NAM/GFS
remain much too bullish on snow amounts given the warmer
initial conditions. By the time temps fall to freezing and below
Mon evening, snow should be tapering off quickly from w to e.
For the eastern and southern counties, predominantly rain is
fcst.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Key messages...

 - Wintry mix tapers off through the evening. Snowfall totals up
   to 1" northwest counties with little to no accumulations
   expected elsewhere.

 - Black ice formation tonight to Tue AM as temperatures fall
   into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy
   later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

Precipitation will taper off from W to E throughout the evening
with CAA continuing to bring falling temps overnight. Could see
some light snow farther east as the precip is ending but not
expecting much if any accumulation. Biggest impacts from the
snow and precipitation will be the development of black ice, as
temperatures fall through the 20s during the overnight period.
Any rain or snow that falls during the day will freeze up
overnight, esp on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses,
leading to hazardous conditions for the Tue morning commute.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Key messages...

 - Dry and seasonably cold mid week.

 - Another system with limited moisture will push through late
   week with much much colder temps next weekend.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs in the 40s Tue
warming back into the 50s to near 60 Wed as winds become SW.
Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most
of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed
morning.

Thursday through Saturday...A couple of northern stream
shortwaves push across the area during the latter half of the
week but moisture remains quite limited and guidance continues
to trend downward with PoPs. At this time, ptype looks to
remain all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the front for
next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows in the 20s,
and possibly teens inland on Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 7 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- Brief period of MVFR/VFR conditions expected this morning

- IFR conditions will return late this morning/early this
  afternoon as rain/snow moves into the area

Conditions have begun to improve across ENC early Monday morning
as winds increase ahead of an approaching frontal
system/developing low pressure system. With increasing winds,
fog/low stratus have mixed out along the southern coast, with
improvement to VFR conditions noted at EWN/OAJ. Meanwhile, the
coastal plain (including PGV/ISO) is hanging onto lingering LIFR
conditions with fog and low stratus noted. Expectation is for
conditions to improve across the coastal plain over the next
hour or so to MVFR/VFR.

Rain is then forecast to track into the area starting late
morning into the early afternoon from west to east, bringing
worsening conditions to TAF sites once more. A changeover to a
mix of rain and snow and then all snow is forecast late
afternoon/early evening with the greatest risk for this to occur
being across PGV/ISO and the northwestern portions of the
forecast area. There remains potential for a more widespread
changeover to snow (or rain/snow mix) across additional
terminals as far south as OAJ/EWN but have opted to keep
mention of -SNRA within a PROB30 group for these terminals.
Northerly winds increase today, peaking in the afternoon hours
with gusts to around 20 kts expected, before decreasing
overnight. IFR conditions are likely to continue at least into
the evening hours.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions may persist into Tuesday morning
before VFR conditions return through at least midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Strong winds and dangerous seas expected through tonight.

 - Small Craft Advisory to low end Gales possible Wednesday and
   Wednesday night.

Through Tue...A cold front passes through early today with an
area of low pressure developing along it across the offshore
waters bringing strong north to northeast winds through tonight.
Continue the Gale warning for all waters except the inland
rivers with strong SCA conditions are expected. Seas build up to
7-11 ft across the northern and central waters and 5-9 ft
south. Wind diminish fairly quickly Tuesday with seas slowly
subsiding through Tuesday night.

Wed...The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived,
as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds
of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters
south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of
Oregon Inlet.

Thu through Fri...Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back
into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight
     EST tonight for NCZ029-044-045.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight
     for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK/TL
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...SK/TL