337
FXUS62 KMHX 151104
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
704 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry backdoor cold front sinks through area tonight allowing
high pressure to build in its wake. This high will anchor over
the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Another cold front will
move through the area Monday bringing our next chance for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 0230 Wednesday...Central CONUS ridging aloft begins to
erode today while slowly drifting Eward from E Texas toward ARK
while trough continues to depart Eward out to sea and new upper
low begins to dig Sward from CAN. Clouds continue but clear from
W E through the day as low/troughing kicks out, becoming
confined to the immediate coast this afternoon, and completely
offshore around sunset. Warmer today with the clearer skies but
the Tds in the mid 50s keep it comfortable, MaxTs in low to mid
70s most, upper 60s NOBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0650 Wednesday...Clear skies and light CAA out of the N
behind a dry backdoor cold front that will sink Sward through
the FA overnight. Coolest night so far this week as SFC high
begins to nose into the FA behind the front. MinTs in the upper
40s in far NWern zones, low to mid 50s Crystal Coast, around 60
OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...

Key Messages...

- We turn breezy and cooler Thursday and Friday with highs below
  normal and lows bottoming out in the upper 30s/low 40s

- Dry and breezy conditions continue through this weekend with
  above normal temps returning.

- Next chance of rain expected late Sunday night through Monday
  a cold front moves through

A cooler airmass builds in Thursday and Friday (highs in the
60s) thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re-
centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then
offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions.
The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early
Monday as a quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across
the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wed Night/...
As of 0700 Wednesday...Sharp cutoff of stratocu rotating about
low pressure offshore slowly departing to the E. ISO still has a
chance of remaining completely VFR, but wobbles/notches in the
cloud cutoff may lead to brief MVFR CIGs at times here.
Otherwise, Nerly winds with some gusts on the order of 12-16kt
with clouds clearing from W to E through the day. SKC and
easing winds overnight behind a dry backdoor cold front that
will cross rtes after midnight local.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wed Night/...
As of 0330 Wednesday...Steady Nerly breezes persist. SCAs in
place for all coastal waters and PamSound. Winds pick back up
with another secondary Nerly surge of winds behind a dry
backdoor cold front that will sink through waters from N to S
after midnight tonight leading to another SCA for CroaNoke and
Albemarle Sounds.

Seas 8-10ft Diamond Shoals N, 5-7ft Cape to Cape, 2-4ft
nearshore waters S of Lookout. Seas generally subside through
the day while winds ease some, by sunset becoming 6-8ft, 4-6ft,
1-3ft for the same areas. Seas build yet again with the uptick
in Nerly winds overnight.


LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...

Key Messages

 - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine
   conditions in the forecast through Friday with strong Small
   Craft conditions expected

As low pressure pulls away from the region, strong high
pressure will build in from the NW, with a tight pressure
gradient expected through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N
at 15-25 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds will subside quickly
late Friday to 5-15 kts, and will become SW on Saturday. Winds
then increase ahead of a cold front Sunday to 15-25 kts. Seas
will be 6-10 ft through Friday morning, and then subside to 5-7
ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Wed...Persistent strong northerly winds will continue
this week keeping the potential for minor coastal flooding in
the forecast through at least Thursday.

Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible
adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon
south to Core Sound due to the strong winds. Oceanside concerns
will continue across portions of the Outer Banks, especially
Hatteras Island, around high tide due to the combination of high
water levels, wave run up, and vulnerable dune structures, with
up to 1 to 2 ft AGL of inundation possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-
     205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to noon EDT Friday for
     AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX