244
FXUS62 KMHX 121148
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
748 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong coastal low will continue to impact the area into
early this week, producing multiple hazards, especially along
the coast. High pressure finally begins to move back in by mid-
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 745 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with multiple hazards
   through tonight

 - High Wind Warning now in effect for the OBX

Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, the coastal
low appears to be about 110 miles SW of Cape Lookout as of this
morning. The low is moving slowly north. In general, guidance
is in good agreement bringing the low north towards the NC
coastline during the day today. Based on this track, strong
northeasterly winds are expected to continue for much of the
day. Based on the latest guidance trends, it appears the risk of
strong winds will now last longer, and potentially over a
larger area. It appears there will be two areas of enhanced wind
potential. The first will be right along a warm front which
stretches SW to NE from the low to just off the OBX. This front
should help to focus the greatest thunderstorm potential, as
well as a locally higher pressure gradient, both of which should
act to support 50-60 mph wind gusts at times. This area looks
to be focused from Cape Lookout north, and a High Wind Warning
is now in effect from Downeast Carteret County through the NRN
OBX. A second area of enhanced winds could develop with daytime
heating today, where even shallow mixing could support some
40-50 mph wind gusts beneath the strong, 50kt northeasterly LLJ
over the area. Given the slower nature of the low, this jet
should have more residence time over the area, including during
peak heating.

To the east of an upper low over GA/SC, a mid-level dryslot has
overspread the eastern Carolinas, which has helped transition
the rainfall across the area from moderate stratiform rain to
more showery rain. I suspect the more showery nature of the rain
will continue for much of the day, and this will help to lower
rainfall rates for most. As the upper low begins to pivot
northeast over the area, an area of heavier deformation band
precip may move back into the area, with rates going back up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Guidance appears to be split between 2 camps regarding the
track of the coastal low tonight. The global guidance suggests
the low will stall near ENC, then shift back to the SW before
getting kicked east on Monday. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance
suggests the low will continue to move slowly north up the coast
from NC to VA. Scenario 1 would tend to favor decreasing winds
tonight, while scenario 2 would favor a continuation of stronger
winds through tonight, especially along the OBX. Hi-res
guidance appeared to handle the track of the last coastal low
fairly well, and we are leaning that direction with the forecast
for tonight. While winds are expected to remain gusty, it
appears that the risk of 45+ mph gusts will decrease, and for
the time being, wind headlines are not expected to continue into
tonight. Additionally, it appears the rain will remain more
showery in nature, which should tend to limit how much
additional rainfall falls. This should also help to lower the
flash flood risk with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

The start of the long term will be greatly impacted by the
track and strength of the weekend coastal low. Winds will grad
back to the NNW by Monday and remain so through the rest of the
period. PoPs will gradually decline through the start of the
week as high pressure builds across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday
will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to
last through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Monday/...
As of 730 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs, LLWS,
   and gusty winds through tonight

As of this morning, satellite imagery and marine observations
suggest the coastal low is about 110 miles SW of Cape Lookout,
and moving slowly NE. Because of the slow movement, it`s
expected that the gusty northeast winds will continue for much
of the day today, with peak gusts of 25-40kt common. Closer to
the coast, wind gusts of 40-50kt will be possible. The strongest
winds should peak today, then begin to decrease some by
tonight. However, the latest guidance has trended up with winds
tonight, and I`ve adjusted the TAFs to reflect a longer period
of gusty winds. Eventually the winds should become more
northerly, or even NNW, by tonight. A strong low-level jet
overhead should continue to support a risk of LLWS impacts
through the day, and potentially into this evening. Like with
the winds, I`ve extended the period of LLWS in the TAFs further
out in time.

Lastly, CIGs for the most part have been struggling to fall
below 1100-1300ft, and I`ve since trended the TAFs more
optimistic regarding IFR potential. Guidance continues to insist
on IFR/LIFR CIGs developing, but so far this hasn`t
materialized on a more widespread basis. It may not be until
later today or tonight that this potential is realized, if at
all.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...A coastal low forecast to impact the
area is expected to continue to support widespread IFR/LIFR
conditions into Sunday night across ENC. Gusty NE winds are
expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Storm Warning issued for all the coastal waters and Pamlico
   Sound through this afternoon due to a stronger coastal low
   off the NC coast

Winds remain very strong early this morning with a deepening
coastal low off the southern NC coast. Winds have gusted 50-60
kts at times early this morning with sustained winds 35-45 kts
out of the NNE/NE across most of the coastal waters and Pamlico
Sound. With the low being deeper, and a front to its east
lifting slower, it appears very strong NNE/NE flow will continue
through the morning hours before winds begin to weaken. As a
result, have upgraded much of the marine waters to Storm
Warnings, and have Gale Warnings ongoing elsewhere.

Exactly when and where winds will weaken remains a difficult
question to answer due to the poor forecast guidance, and lack
of observations over the open ocean. Best guess is that the
system will begin to weaken early this afternoon, however the
pressure gradient to the north should remain strong. This will
bring weakening winds to southern NC as the low lifts to the
northeast along or just off the OBX, and keep strong NE flow
over the NOBX through much of the afternoon. Storm/Gale warnings
currently end this afternoon, but may need to be extended based
on the track and intensity of the low today.

Tonight, winds may restrengthen on the backside of the coastal
low, likely to 25-35 kts out of the N/NW, but there is
potential for winds to be stronger due to the aforementioned
uncertainties with this system.

Seas will be extremely high the rest of the morning, in the
range of 10-20 ft, and then subside to 8-15 ft later today.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Coastal low and then a tight pressure gradient will keep
   hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least
   mid week

The coastal low will be weakening Monday but still producing
marginal Gale conditions for portions of the marine waters. How
long Gale conditions last Monday is unclear to the complicated
track and intensity forecast of the low. But, conditions should
be improving through the day as the low moves off to the east.
Behind it, a tight pressure gradient will persist for several
days due to strong high pressure building in from the west.
Winds will be at least 20-30 kts out of the NW through mid week,
and could strengthen to Gale strength at times. Seas will remain
elevated and around the range of 6-10 ft, highest north of
Hatteras Inlet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 745 AM Sunday...

Periods of moderate to heavy rain will remain a risk along the
OBX through the day today as a coastal low lifts slowly north
along the SC/NC coast, but it appears this will be more
scattered in nature. In light of this, the Flood Watch has been
allowed to expire.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 AM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain on
track this morning with a coastal low meandering off the
southern NC coast. Main forecast change this morning is an
increase in both wind speed and duration this morning into this
afternoon, and as a result, slightly higher water
levels/inundation is expected.

The highest concern will be along oceanside areas of OBX Dare
county north of Cape Hatteras where the combination of wind
surge, high astronomical tides, and wave run up will lead to the
potential for major coastal flooding (3-5 ft AGL) with this
afternoon`s (~12 pm) high tide. This includes already vulnerable
areas like Buxton, Rodanthe, and Pea Island, but significant
overwash impacts could be seen north of Oregon Inlet as well.

Moving over to the sounds and inland rivers, Coastal Flood
Warnings remain in effect for areas adjacent to the southern
Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, and Neuse and Bay Rivers. Here up to
2-4 ft AGL of inundation is possible, with several areas seeing
the higher end of that range due to persistent very strong winds
across the Pamlico Sound this morning. Along and adjacent to
Bogue Sound as well as around the Pamlico River, up to 1-2 ft
AGL of inundation is possible today.

Coastal flooding will continue tonight and into tomorrow to a
lesser extent as strong winds (with changing wind directions)
persist due to a strong pressure gradient.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ046-047.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080.
     Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ081-094-194-195.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194-196.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199-
     203>205.
     High Wind Warning until noon EDT today for NCZ196-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205.
     High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ203.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-137-230-231.
     Storm Warning until noon EDT today for AMZ135-154-156-158.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ136.
     Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-152.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...SGK
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX