502
FXUS62 KMHX 150104
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
904 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue into early next week
thanks to an unstable and very moist airmass in place across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 830 PM Saturday...
Key Messages

 - 20-30% Chance of showers and tstorms north of hwy 264 early
   tonight

 - Dry for most the second half of the night

Rain chances remain low for much of the region through tonight.
Front will slowly sink southward overnight across the Albemarle
Sound region, with 20-30% chance of tstorms north of hwy 264
until 1am. After that, lack of diurnal heating and upper level
support will result in showers/tstorms tapering off as we
progress through the night. Low stratus will develop through
ENC with ample low level moisture, with highest chances along
and south of hwy 70 where we saw recent rainfall. A second surge
of low stratus pushing in from the north may approach the
Albemarle Sound region early morning, but unsure how far south
it will extend at this point in time. It will be another warm
night, with lows in the 70s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again
  Sunday, with potential for localized flooding and gusty winds.

High pressure will remain anchored offshore as weak backdoor
front begins to sink southward into the northern portions
of the forecast area. MLCAPES will reach 15-2500 J/kg, with 0-6
km deep layer shear around 20-30 kt, while the front/seabreeze
should provide ample forcing. There will be a threat for some of
this activity to become severe in nature with damaging winds
being the primary hazard, though a few isolated instances of
hail and an isolated tornado can`t be completely ruled out. The
one limiting factor will be the weak mid-level lapse rates which
may preclude a widespread severe threat. Either way SPC
currently has the area under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe thunderstorms Sun afternoon and eve. Other concern will
again be the potential for locally heavy rain with PWATs around
2 inches, which could lead to localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather pattern into Tuesday with multiple chances for
severe weather and heavy rain

- Potential for dangerous heat indices midweek into the end of next
week.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Unsettled weather will continue
into Mon/Tue as upper ridging remains anchored to the south and
east. At the same time, a slow moving upper trough gradually
pushes E`wards across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic next week
with multiple weak shortwaves tracking along the periphery of
this upper trough. At the surface, cold front to the north at
the start of the period will dive SE`wards, eventually stalling
over the area Sun night, before lifting N on Mon and remaining
just north of the area on Tue. As this occurs, the frontal
boundary and Seabreeze will become the focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity each day. The general trend for each day
will be for ongoing showers and thunderstorms offshore to
gradually push onshore with the seabreeze each morning. Then by
the afternoon as the front nears the area, additional shower and
thunderstorm activity develops before chances lower and precip
pushes offshore each night. With warm and muggy conditions
expected, MLCAPES will reach 1500-2500 J/kg on Mon/Tue. With
0-6 km deep layer shear maxing out around 25-40 kts each day and
the front/Seabreeze providing ample forcing, there will be a
threat for some of this activity to become severe in nature with
damaging winds being the primary hazard, though a few isolated
instances of hail and an isolated tornado can`t be completely
ruled out. The one limiting factor each day will be the weak
mid-level lapse rates which may preclude a broader severe
threat. Will have to monitor trends but if convective coverage
is anticipated to be larger than currently expected upgrades to
the current threat may become necessary.

Otherwise, with SW`rly surface flow continuing to pump ample
moisture N`wards from the Gulf, expect PWATs to change little,
remaining around 2 inches into Tue night while remaining muggy.
Combined with slow storm motions, potentially training storms,
and plenty of moisture, any storm that does develop will be a
very efficient rain maker and localized flooding threat is on
the table through early in the week (See HYDRO Section for more
details). As a result portions, if not all of the FA is under a
marginal/slight risk for excessive rainfall into Tue. Temps
each day get into the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the 70s
each night.

Wednesday into next weekend... Upper pattern eventually becomes more
zonal by midweek with a return to a more summer like pattern with
thunderstorms developing off the daily seabreeze and gradually
pushing inland each day bringing. Will note, an upper level
trough will be digging into the Mid-Atlantic from the west late
next week, but should stay north of ENC given the latest
guidance. As a result, a weak surface cold front may track
across the region late next week, but impacts from this front
remain uncertain. Of bigger note will be the hot and muggy
conditions as a combination of temps in the 90s Wed/Thurs and
dewpoints in the 70s will result in hazardous heat indices with
"feels like" temps closer to the triple digits each day. Will
have to monitor trends, but the years first heat advisories may
be needed next week if the current forecast holds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 845 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Low stratus threat tonight
 - Increased TSRA risk Sunday

Ample low level moisture and light (but not calm) winds tonight
will result in a low stratus threat. Already, areas near the
Crystal Coast have been flirting with IFR conditions, and the
expectation is through the night, this stratus will lower, and
become more expansive. There is uncertainty on how far inland
the stratus goes, Meanwhile, a second surge of low stratus is
expected to push in from the north early morning tomorrow. Model
guidance suggests the stratus will remain north of the Albemarle
Sound, but trends will need to be monitored in case MVFR/IFR
stratus approaches northern terminals like PGV. Low stratus
lifts Sunday morning, with scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected again Sunday afternoon into the evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Unsettled weather will continue to
persist across the area into midweek next week as multiple
fronts bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to
Eastern North Carolina. Greatest threat to see storms will be
each afternoon and evening across the FA. This will bring a
daily threat for sub-VFR conditions each day. In addition to
this, early morning fog development will remain possible for
areas that see rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 855 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Increased thunderstorm risk for areas waters through Sunday

The thunderstorm risk may extend through tonight for the
central and southern coastal waters, increasing after 1am. For
all waters, the strongest thunderstorms will be capable of
30-40kt+ winds and waterspouts. Sunday, winds continue to be
10-20 kts out of the southwest, occasionally gusting to 25 kts
in the Pamlico Sound and nearshore waters off of Hatteras
Island. Of greater concern Sunday PM is the thunderstorm
potential, capable of wind gusts over 40 kts and waterspouts.

LONG TERM /Sunday night though Thursday/...
As of 330AM Saturday... No significant changes to the forecast
on this update as high pressure centered offshore in the
Atlantic will continue to interact with frontal boundaries
tracking across the region into next week. This will bring daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms with offshore showers in
the morning clearing by the afternoon and then additional shower
and thunderstorm activity expected in the evening. This will
bring a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas within any
thunderstorm that moves out over the waters. Otherwise 5-15 kt
SW`rly winds with gusts near 20-25 kts are forecast for Sun
night with slightly stronger winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25
kt will be possible on Monday with the approach of a frontal
boundary. Winds ease slightly back down to 5-15 kt out of the SW
on Tue as high pressure tries to reestablish itself offshore.
Seas remain around 2-4 ft through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3 PM Sat...A lingering frontal boundary draped over the
mid-atlantic, paired with a moderately unstable and anomalously
moist airmass supports areas of intense rainfall rates Sunday
and Monday. While the most intense rainfall rates will tend to
be of relatively shorter duration at any one location, the rates
may support a few instances of flash flooding. A Flood Watch
was contemplated, and will be re- evaluated tonight, with the
heavy rain threat returning Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RJ
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RCF/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX