843
FXUS62 KMHX 031121
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
621 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area from the north through
Thursday before the pattern becomes unsettled again starting
Friday and lasting through the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages...

 - Clearing skies overnight with cold temperatures

A quiet night is in store after a busy weather day across ENC.
The low that dumped a couple of inches of rain to the area is
continuing to move northeast off of New England and high
pressure is building in. CAA will ramp up behind a passing
shortwave tonight, veering winds to NNE and clearing skies for
much of the CWA, save for the OBX. Temps will crater to the
upper 20s to low 30s across the coastal plain and mid 30s to low
40s along the coast. There won`t be much cloud cover to speak
of today outside of some CAA strato-cu along the OBX. It`ll be
pretty chilly with highs in the upper 40s north of Highway 264
and low 50s to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages..

 - Fog possible late tonight/early Thursday morning

With mostly clear skies and light winds, we`ll efficiently
radiate tonight. Temps will tank after sunset with lows ranging
from the upper 20s inland to upper 30s along the coast. There`s
potential for fog to develop across the coastal plain late
tonight/early Thursday, and given that temps will be below
freezing, this raises concerns for freezing fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
   temperatures Thursday

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   late in the week

High pressure will remain in control through the day Thursday,
allowing us to stay dry and for temps to rebound to the mid 50s. A
dry cold front will then pass Thursday night, sending lows into the
low to mid 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the coast.

The forecast becomes more unsettled starting Friday as a series of
lows will move along a stalled boundary offshore and several
shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in
the forecast through at least the weekend with highest chances being
from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Surface temps across
northwestern zones will be near freezing Friday morning, which will
open the door for a wintry mix. Elsewhere, temps will be warm enough
to keep the precip all liquid. A large temperature gradient will
exist on Friday with highs in the low 40s inland and mid to upper
50s at the coast. Highs won`t be much different along the coast on
Saturday but will warm to the upper 40s to low 50s inland. Slight
chance/low end chance PoPs will stick around on Sunday (highest
along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s.

The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern
half of the CWA with lingering slight chance/chance PoPs. Dry
conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds
back in. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Gradually improving conditions early this morning

Mixed bag of conditions early this morning, ranging from VFR to
MVFR. Low stratus will continue to sink southward and push
offshore in the next few hours, giving way to pred VFR
conditions. Mainly sunny skies expected today with the exception
of the OBX where STCU will skirt the coast. High pressure will
build in through the day with winds becoming light and variable.
Radiation fog, patchy dense, will be possible tonight into
early Thursday morning, with mostly clear skies and calm winds.

Outlook: The next system is expected to move through ENC Friday
and Saturday with another risk of widespread sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters (expiring this morning)

 - Conditions improving through the day

Latest obs show NNE winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt and 5-7
ft seas. Conditions will continue to improve over the next few hours
with ongoing SCAs across the coastal waters set to drop later this
morning, lasting the longest from Ocracoke Inlet north due to
lingering 6+ ft seas. NNE winds will decrease to 5-10 kt by this
evening with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. Tonight, winds will back to
the NE but remain around 5-10 kt.

Outlook: A dry cold front will pass Thursday night, which could
generate a few northerly 25 kt gusts. A series of coastal lows will
move through later this week and this weekend, bringing solid
chances for rain but a low threat of SCA winds and seas (as of right
now). Aside from the brief period of potential 25 kt gusts Thursday
night, the next best chance for SCA winds will be on Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...OJC