871
FXUS62 KMHX 080942
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
542 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Ended remaining Small Craft Advisories.

Decreased low temperatures for this morning and Wednesday
morning. Added PoPs for sea/sound/river breeze convergence
zones Thursday and Friday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) More seasonable September temps for the beginning of the
week with a warming trend developing late week.

2) More unsettled pattern expected Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to build across the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today with a cooler/drier NE-E flow
over the area bringing seasonable and comfortable temps for
early September, with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints
generally in the 60s. Temps will begin to warm mid to late week
as the high shifts offshore allowing southerly flow to re-
develop Wednesday onwards. High temps climb back into the upper
80s to lower 90s and dewpoint temps into the low to mid 70s
late in the week. Mostly dry weather will prevail through mid
week as upper ridging build in from the west and a drier airmass
in place, although as dewpoints and PWATs creep up late week,
slight chance of showers have been introduced for the
sea/sound/river breeze convergence zones (in the vicinity of
Mainland Dare/Hyde and East Carteret counties).


KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday the high continues to shift offshore and
a front sweeps south through the Mid-Atlantic region. Ahead of
this front, continuous warm, moist advection in southerly flow
will help build PWATs to near 2" by Friday. This will bring
scattered to numerous sea breeze showers/tstorms back in the
forecast for Friday. Meanwhile, despite the high shifting
offshore, some residual ridging should slow down the progression
of the front as it moves south Friday. Long range models are in
good agreement on this front stalling just to our north in VA,
but model trends will need to be analyzed in the coming days in
case the front shifts further south than what the 00Z guidance
shows this morning. Along the front training
showers/thunderstorms are possible, and a narrow swath of deep
layer shear right along the front would bring both a low end
hydro and severe threat. However, given the front is currently
forecast to stall to our north, at this point both hydro and
severe potential is limited Friday. IF the front shifts further
south into eastern NC, collisions with the afternoon sea breeze
could result in a more messy situation, but this is a worst case
scenario that is not backed by most models at this time.

The front lifts back north Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave
moves through the region. This shortwave will bring slightly
better chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
Shear doesn`t look to be impressive, but ample moisture will
promote a marginal hydro threat. There is some uncertainty with
how much instability is in play Saturday, as it is dependent on
cloud cover and associated surface heating. In a low-end CAPE
outcome, (500-1000J/kg) we would have long skinny CAPEs that
suggest just a hydro threat and less frequent lightning.
Meanwhile a high- end CAPE outcome (2000-4000 J/kg) would bring
more pulse- like thunderstorms capable of producing some gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall rates. Regardless
of how Saturday plays out, there is higher confidence on a low-
CAPE outcome Sunday. While heavy showers and some thunderstorms
are possible Sunday with the shortwave, Severe threat appears to
be more muted.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are currently noted across all of ENC early this
morning. Expect light winds, some high clouds, and dry
conditions across all flight routes as high pressure ridge
centered to the north extends across the Carolinas. This is
forecast to lead to primarily VFR conditions through all day
Tue. Inland areas are expected to decouple bringing good
radiational cooling conditions this morning, but with a dry
airmass in place, fog development is unlikely but still cannot
completely rule out patchy shallow ground fog at some inland
terminals. Have added a 5SM MIFG tempo group for OAJ with this
TAF issuance. Otherwise could see some sct diurnal Cu Tue
afternoon before it dissipates Tue night. Tuesday night winds go
calm, and with skies expected to be generally clear there is a
slightly better BR/FG signal. However, with the drier airmass
still in place Tuesday, it will likely be shallow in nature.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Tue night through Sat): High pressure will build in
from the north through mid week, with pred VFR conditions
expected. A front is expected to approach the region Friday and
Saturday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms with
periods of sub-VFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory has dropped for coastal waters from Cape
Hatteras to Surf City, as winds and seas have dropped below 25
kt/6 ft. Winds gradually diminish through the day today. This
afternoon winds will be NE 5-10 kt gusting to 10-15 kt. The high
pressure system leads to much more pleasant boating conditions
through mid- week.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Winds and seas will continue to ease Wed
as high pressure builds in. SW winds 5-15 kt return Wed night
and 10-20 kt Thu with seas building 2-4 ft as a front approaches
the area. A coastal trough may also set up Thursday night into
Friday, bringing increased tstorm chances along the Gulf Stream. The
front is forecast to stall to our north, but with the proximity
of the front and additional shortwaves moving through this
weekend, we are expecting a more unsettled pattern Friday-
Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ