407
FXUS62 KMHX 140148
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
948 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Double barrel low setup off the East Coast will slowly
consolidate into a broader low and sink south through the
Atlantic waters off the NC coast tomorrow. High pressure builds
in mid week with dry and unseasonably cool weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Mon...No significant changes as low clouds are
beginning to stream in towards the NC/VA border this evening.
Expect this to continue over the net several hours with a slight
chance at a few showers along our northern zones around
daybreak.

Prev Disc...Mainly dry overnight, though widespread cloud cover
will persist. As upper low over the Great Lakes dives south
towards morning, some light rain may break out acrs the northern
tier and towards the OBX by around daybreak. Otherwise,
seasonable temps expected with lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 4 PM Mon...The two SFC lows off the East Coast begin to
consolidate with the DelMarVA low sinking SEward to merge with
the Sern low and move well off the NC coast. With upper low
diving through ENC, an inc in pops can be expected. Inc pops
quite a bit, with 40-60% coastal areas, highest OBX zones. HREF
guidance is even a bit higher, so there is some room to inc them
a bit more. Much lesser chances for rain further west towards
the Coastal Plain, where 20% or less is advertised. It will be
overcast again, even for areas that don`t see much rain, so have
dropped max T`s quite a bit, with highs expected only in the
mid 60s for most locales.

With the offshore low(s) moving southward off the NC coast, an
inc in the northerly gradient will bring gusty winds to the
coast, with speeds up to 40 mph or so expected by the afternoon
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- We turn breezy and cooler this week with lows bottoming out
  in the low 40s Friday and Saturday mornings

- Dry and breeze conditions through this weekend. Next chance of
  rain possible by early next week

Mostly cloudy and cool conditions persist Tuesday with moisture
from the coastal low and nearby upper trough still over ENC. A
few widely scattered and light showers will be possible along
the coast Tuesday as well. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, with a cooler
airmass moving in for Thursday and Friday (highs in the 60s)
thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re-centers
over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then moves offshore
Sunday which will signal a return to above normal conditions.
The next chance of rain may come late Sunday or Monday as a
quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across the
Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 730 PM Mon...Currently have a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings
with cloud decks ranging from 2.5-4.0 kft and light N`rly winds
across ENC this evening. With some drier air coming in out
ahead of a S`ward moving upper low we could see a brief period
of VFR conditions especially across inland TAF sites until
about 03-06Z with OBX and coastal sites likely seeing MVFR
ceilings at 2-3 KFT through the overnight hours.Conditions then
deteriorate later tonight as moisture begins to advect in from
the north as an upper level low moves into the Mid-Atlantic.
This will bring MVFR ceilings to all of ENC with the potential
for IFR ceilings along the OBX and PGV/EWN terminals after 06Z.
Expect conditions to not improve much through much of the day
on Tue with sub-VFR conditions forecast across all terminals
into Tue evening. Some light rain is possible at all TAF sites
tomorrow, but eastern terminals, and especially eastward from
there towards the coast and OBX, have the best chance of some
light rain. Given the uncertainty have elected to keep precip
out of the TAF forecast for now. Light winds through tonight
will pick up out of the north on Tue with gusts of up to 20 kt
through late morning and the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 0300 Monday...Two low pres systems off the East Coast will
consolidate into one while remaining offshore on Tue. Winds will
generally be in the 10-20 kt range tonight, with an inc in winds
on Tue as the low(s) move southward but well off the NC coast.
This will create a pinched gradient, with another chance of
gales back in the forecast after 18z, mainly for the coastal
waters north of Ocracoke Inlet, but also ern portions of Pamlico
Sound as well as the Croatan/Roanoke sounds. ECM probs for gale
gusts are 50-80% now for these zones, so have opted to issue a
gale watch starting at 18z and going through 06Z Wed.

Seas will continue in the 6-8 ft range through tonight, then an
uptick later Tue into Tue night 8-10 ft with the northerly
surge.


LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages

 - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine
   conditions in the forecast through at least mid week with
   marginal Gale conditions possible at times

As low pressure pulls away from the region Tuesday, strong high
pressure will build in from the NW, and will keep the pressure
gradient tight through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N at
20-30 kts, with gusts 30-35 kts, with a few lulls through
Friday. Seas will rebuild to 6-10 ft, but could be higher north
of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 740 PM Mon... Made some minor changes since the previous
update which includes issuing coastal flood warnings for
tomorrows high tide for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and a
Coastal FLood advisory for the Northern OBX. High surf advisory
was also issued for the OBX north of Cape Hatteras for tomorrow.

Though the coastal low has weakened, and will pull away from
the region Tue/Wed, minor to moderate coastal flooding will
continue due to persistent northerly winds.

Outer Banks: Coastal Flood Warning now persists through Wed
morning for Hatteras Island where significant impacts (2-4 ft
AGL) are again possible, mainly starting during tomorrow
afternoon`s high tide as a strong surge of N`rly winds has the
potential to produce similar impacts to previous days events.
Due to offshore winds and decreasing swell, the Coastal Flood
Warning for Ocracoke has been replaced with an Advisory for now,
and mostly minor oceanside impacts (1-2 ft AGL) are expected
with tonight`s high tide. However as the strong N`rly surge
impacts Ocracoke on Tue we will once again have the potential to
see minor to moderate coastal flooding impacts (2-3 ft AGL) and
as a result have a coastal flood warning now in place across
Ocracoke starting at 11AM Tue and persisting into Wed morning.
On the sound side, strong and steady northerly flow will lead to
minor flooding impacts beginning later today from around Avon
south to Ocracoke Village, and linger through at least
Wednesday.

Downeast Carteret, Craven, Pamlico: Coastal Flood Advisories
remain in place, and an extended period of minor flooding (1-2
ft AGL, locally up to 3 ft a times) is anticipated due to strong
northerly winds. Flooding may be worsened around high tide
early this week due to still higher than normal astronomical
tides, with minor flooding impacts lasting through at least
Wednesday.

Finally have also included a high surf advisory for the beaches
north of Cape Hatteras as seas should build close to 6-10ft in
the surf zone Tue afternoon as a potent surge of N`rly winds
works its way south. On top of the higher seas, wave periods
will be 10+ sec resulting in another round of powerful swell
impacting the area potentially enhancing impacts to already
weakened dune structures. The High surf advisory goes out until
Wed morning as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ094-194-
     196.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ204.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for NCZ204.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ131-230.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for AMZ135-150-152-154-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SGK/ZC
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...TL/SGK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX