033
FXUS62 KMHX 071821
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
121 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control today as a front remains
stalled offshore. A cold front will move through late tonight
and early Monday with low pressure developing along it. High
pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low and
cold front move in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Sun...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered
over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, cold front extending
through the NE US and back through the Mid-West, with another
front stalled offshore the SE coast. While there is still
potential for patchy freezing fog for inland areas early this
morning, low stratus is keeping temps in the upper 30s to low
40s...so not sure it will make it down to freezing. However,
patchy dense fog to the west may continue to advect into the
coastal plain in the next few hours, so will continue to monitor
trends with the potential need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

High pressure remains in control today, keeping the area mostly
dry. Skies likely to remain party to mostly cloudy today as mid
and high clouds continue to stream in. Low lvl thickness values
and clouds support highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 2 AM Sun...Approaching cold front will move through the
area late tonight and early Monday, while strong shortwave
approaches the Carolinas. Cloud cover will likely keep temps for
most areas above freezing overnight, but could see patchy
inland fog develop again before northerly winds increase towards
sunrise. Expect most of the night to remain dry with low end
precip chances increasing towards sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 AM Sun...Light snow possible across inland areas Monday
afternoon and evening. Then dry and seasonably cold mid week.
Another weather maker possible by week`s end, turning much
colder next weekend.

Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip
with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing
through, inducing offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and
evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps
tumble through late afternoon, while moisture is coming to an
end. However, most 00z guidance is trending towards a wetter
and colder scenario. There will likely be some overlap where
rain mixes with and changes over to some snow, especially across
the NW portions of the area. Very light snow accumulations will
be possible, likely less than 1"...and more than likely limited
to grassy and elevated surfaces given the warm ground. Probabilities
for light accums continue to tick upwards...will continue to
monitor trends in high res guidance. Mon night lows will fall
into the 20s inland and 30s along the beaches and immediate
coast.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds back in at the surface behind Monday`s front and
trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the coast. Highs in the
40s Tue warming back into the 50s Wed and Thu as winds become
Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for
most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue
night/Wed morning.

Friday through Saturday...Next chc for appreciable precip
arrives by week`s end, as next shortwave trough swings through
the Ern CONUS in a cont active synoptic pattern. Due to
uncertainty this far out in details and timing, pops kept at low
chc (30%) or lower for now. At this time, ptype looks to remain
all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the front for next
weekend with highs back into the 30s and 40s and lows well below
freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 PM Sun...

Key Messages...

- Improving conditions this afternoon, but some areas of IFR
  ceilings will remain across the northern coastal plain

- Brief improvement to VFR conditions likely this evening

- IFR/LIFR ceilings and/or visibilities return tonight through
  tomorrow morning

- IFR conditions will likely persist through most of tomorrow as
  rain/snow moves into the area

Flying conditions have improved to MVFR/VFR in many locations
across ENC, but there remains some pockets of IFR ceilings
across the northern coastal plain. These areas may persist
through this evening while the rest of the forecast area likely
remains VFR.

Tonight, skies will briefly clear or partially clear for most of
the area, and the combination of slight radiational cooling and
a very saturated surface layer will result in the reformation of
fog, and also low stratus. Fog is likely to become very dense
again across the coastal plain, and even as far east as US 17.
Similar to last night, areas of very low stratus will also
form, but its unclear what the predominate impact to flying
conditions will be overnight and into tomorrow morning. Rain and
potentially snow will be moving into ENC after sunrise tomorrow
morning, and IFR conditions are likely to continue at least
into the afternoon if not all day.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions may persist Monday night before VFR
conditions return through at least midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 AM Sun...

Key Messages

- Strong winds and dangerous seas expected Monday and Monday
  night.

Latest obs show N-NW winds 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt across the
warmer waters near the Gulf Stream, with seas 3-5 ft. High
pressure remains in control today with front stalled well
offshore. Winds become N-NE 5-10 kt today with seas 2-4 ft.
Light winds this evening grad increasing to 15-20 kt by early
Mon morning.

Mon...Backdoor front passes through and strong northerly winds
develop 15-25 kt for the rivers, sounds and nearshore waters,
and 20-30 kt gusting 30-40 kt for the water outer waters.
Upgraded to Gale warnings for the southern and central waters,
Gale watch for the northern waters and SCAs for the rivers and
sounds. Seas will quickly increase to 6-10 ft Monday and
continue into early Tue.

Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late
Wed winds turn swrly and inc to 15-25 kt for the sounds and
nearshore waters, and 20-30 kt with potential gale gusts for
the warmer outer waters south of Hatteras. Gusty WNW early Thu
grad easing through the day. Seas peak will at 4-8 ft late Wed,
then subsiding to 2-4 ft by late Thu.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-135-150-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday
     night for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...TL