Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall tonight vicinity of the Crystal
Coast then drift slowly north Tuesday. This will bring an
increased risk of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. The
front will remain over the northern portion of the area through
mid week, then lift back north as a warm front Wednesday into
Thursday. Another cold front will impact the area Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 10 PM Mon...A diminishing trend in thunderstorms this
evening with loss of diurnal heating. Exception is the far
southern zones, including the Crystal Coast, where an isolated
thunderstorm remains. Think the trend of small thunder chances
for most of the FA will be the rule tonight, though better CAPE
pooling will continue for the srn zones, and have a mention of
higher thunder probs here through the rest of the night as
stalled frontal boundary begins to lift slowly north through
Onslow to Duplin county through the night and into the early
morning.

Prev disc... As of 710 PM Mon...Ongoing fcst in good shape.
Widespread shra with embedded thunder cont across interior
zones, with coastal locales remaining rain free. Have diminished
pops a bit quicker this evening, though kept in 30-50% far west
as convective line acrs SC moves ewrd towards the Coastal
Plain. Current thinking is that this line of storms will weaken
as it approaches ENC as it outruns its lift and dynamics with
sfc low still across the wrn Carolinas, but some activity may
squeak into western parts of the FA later this evening. Otw, mo
cloudy skies and very warm temps in the 60s for lows.

Prev disc... As of 330 PM Monday...Complex situation the next
36-48 hours with a stalled front across eastern NC and the
arrival of weak low pressure currently moving north through the
deep south. This low should move into central NC tonight into
tomorrow enhancing moisture advection and lift across the area.
The diffuse "cold" frontal boundary was currently located
roughly along Highway 70. This boundary is forecast to drift a
little further south today to be located vicinity of the Crystal
Coast by early this evening. Radar indicates scattered
thunderstorms developing in vicinity of the front over the
southern coastal plain. Further development is expected to the
east toward the coast in the next couple of hours. Diurnal
destabilization and convergence near the boundary will lead to
additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with
the greatest coverage along and west of the Highway 17 corridor.
HREF guidance was forecasting an enhancement in the low to mid
level wind fields this afternoon and evening and this shear
combined with ML CAPES around 2000 J/kg and PW values 1.75-2"
should be enough to support at least a low end severe wind/hail
threat, especially in areas along/west of Highway 17 and south
of Highway 70 where the SPC has forecast a "Marginal" severe
weather risk today. With the surface flow expected to be
easterly, there will also be the possibility for one or two
spin-ups and the SPC has a 2% tornado risk across the Marginal
outlook area.

The SFC low that moved ashore along the north-central Gulf
Coast late last night will continue to lift N/NE into the NC
Piedmont tonight. Along and east of this low, a plume of better
low-mid level moisture will get pulled north into a SFC
boundary that will be stalled west to east across North
Carolina. Additionally, a dampening mid level shortwave will
cross the area tonight which will provide enough lift to
sustain the convection after peak heating well into the evening
hours. Along with the severe risk, a relatively higher PWat
airmass for this time of year (1.75-2.00") will support
torrential downpours with heavy rainfall rates. ENC is still
running low for precip of late, which should help keep the scope
of the flooding threat lower. However, the heavier rainfall
rates and the potential for some training of storms for a time
may allow some ponding of water/minor flooding to occur,
especially in any urban areas. Where/if training occurs, HREF
max QPF fields suggest amounts of 2-4" are possible.

Temp-wise, lows will range from around 70 south to the mid 60s
north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Weak low pressure will move slowly E
along the stalled frontal boundary located across eastern NC
Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area, peaking in intensity and coverage
during the afternoon and evening hours. Similar to today, the
combination of shear, lift and instability will be enough to
support a low end damaging wind/isolated tornado threat across
eastern NC and the SPC has forecast a "Marginal" severe weather
risk for the area. Locally heavy rains with the potential for
flooding will also be a concern as the high PW airmass remains
in place. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s south to the
mid to upper 70s north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 5 AM Monday...Upper ridging remains off the Southeast
coast through mid week bringing moist SW flow across the
region. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain stalled
across ENC or just offshore through Wednesday night before
lifting back north as a warm front on Thursday. Meanwhile, a
remnant low will ride along the front and move into the area
Tuesday, then meander across region through Wednesday night.
Convergence along the boundary and shortwave energy lifting
through the ridge will bring periods of unsettled weather
through mid week. PW values around 1.75-2" will bring the
potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially into Tuesday
night when upper forcing and shear will be better. Coverage of
storms may be less on Wednesday depending of the position of the
front and sfc low, which some guidance suggest it could shift
offshore. Clouds and precip will keep temps near or slightly
below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

The boundary is progged to lift north on Thursday ahead of a
complex low pressure system lifting from the Central Plains
into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Low press will lift
across the Ohio River Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic
states Friday and Saturday with the attendant cold front progged
to push across the area Saturday. Good moisture feed out of the
Gulf of Mexico and jet dynamics will bring periods of showers
and thunderstorms across the region. Details and timing
difference continue among the models but appear to be a bit
faster with the heaviest precip moving offshore late Friday
night but lingering showers may continue into Saturday. Kept a
low PoP in the forecast on Sunday but models are trending drier
with high pressure building in from the west. Temps warm to
above normal on Thursday with increasing southerly flow ahead of
the front, then expected to be near normal Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 710 PM Monday...A weak frontal boundary will remain
draped across eastern NC through Tue. Weak low pressure will
move east along it on Tue. This will result in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoons
and evenings through Tue. Sub VFR conditions and gusty winds
will occur in thunderstorms. Independent of the shower and
thunderstorm activity, guidance is indicating that widespread
IFR ceilings will develop across the area after around 03Z
tonight and persist into late Tue morning. Fog could also occur
locally in sheltered locations that have received heavy rains
but overall low level mixing should be sufficient enough to
preclude widespread formation.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 530 AM Monday...Unsettled weather will continue through
much of the long term bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions
across rtes. A frontal boundary and low pressure area will be
stalled across the area Tuesday through Wednesday night. Tuesday
appears to be the best opportunity for prolonged sub-VFR with
some improvement possible Wednesday and more likely Thursday
with the boundary lifting north. A stronger cold front
approaches Friday with periods of showers and thunderstorms
increasing. With greater moisture across the area, late night
and early morning fog will also be possible most days.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 330 PM Monday...A weak cold front will stall across the
southern waters tonight then drift north into the central waters
Tue as weak low pressure begins to move east along it. Tonight
winds will become NE to E 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt all
waters. On Tue as the front drifts north, winds over the
southern waters will become SE to S 10-15 kt while over the
central and eastern waters winds will become E to SE 10-15 kt.
Current seas of 2-3 ft will build to 3-4 ft north of Ocracoke
Inlet tonight and Tue.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 6 AM Monday...A frontal boundary will be stalled near the
area Tuesday through Wednesday night bringing generally light
winds around 15 kt or less and seas around 2-4 ft, outside of
showers and thunderstorms. Wind direction a bit difficult to pin
down and will be determined by the location of the front. The
front will lift north of the area Thursday with SCA conditions
possibly late in the week as southerly winds increase to around
15-25 kt and seas build up to 3-5 ft and potentially up to 6 ft
across outer portions of the coastal waters late Thursday
through Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...JME/SK


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