Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 181037
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
537 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through mid week.
Another wet storm system is forecast to impact the area
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build over the area
over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 535 AM Tuesday...No changes to previous thinking High
pressure will build over the area from the NW today. Cold
advection and associated northerly flow will result in cooler
temperatures today despite sunny skies. A thin veil of Cirrus
clouds will move into the area this afternoon into early
evening. Highs will range from the lower 50s inland to the mid
to upper 40s coast. Brisk winds this morning will diminish this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Tuesday...High pressure is forecast to crest over
the area tonight producing continued clear skies and light
winds. Resulting strong radiational cooling will produce cold
low temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and lower to
middle 30s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM Tuesday...High pressure will move offshore
Wednesday as another storm system lifts west and north of the
area Thursday into Friday. High pressure builds in again from
the west for the upcoming weekend.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...High pressure will begin to
slide offshore Wednesday as low-level SE/S flow increases
Wednesday night. Precipitable water values will surge to almost
1.5 inches by late Wednesday night and will raise PoPs slightly
near the coast after 06Z Thursday as a few warm advection
showers will develop. Highs temperatures on Wednesday will be in
the low/mid 50s, but will only drop to the mid 40s to lower 50s
as strong warm-air advection kicks in Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday...Longer range models continue to be in
good agreement showing cut off upper level low tracking across
the Deep South then turning up the mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday
as strengthening surface low moves west across the mountains and
to our north. Deep moisture will arrive by later on Thursday as
precipitable water values surge to nearly 2 inches, well above
the normal for this time of year. Model QPF continues to
consistently show 2-3 inches across our CWA, with localized
higher amounts, especially along the central Outer Banks, where
the GFS shows up to 5 inches of rainfall. Flood potential will
need to be monitored given the extraordinary excess of rainfall
that has occurred in the region over the past 4 months. Gusty
winds will also accompany this storm system. Will also continue
to mention a chance of a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night as surface-based CAPE values of 500-750 J/kg
are seen in some of the guidance. With the gusty S/SE winds,
temperatures will be much milder, reaching the mid/upper 60s for
Thursday and low/mid 60s Friday with lows remaining in the 50s.

Friday Night through Monday...Precipitation should move offshore
Friday evening as high pressure builds in from the west for the
weekend. With no real Arctic air anticipated, temperatures
should be normal for the weekend with highs generally in the 50s
and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 535 AM Monday...VFR conditions expected across the area
through tonight as dry high pressure builds over the area. Could
see N winds gust into the mid teens this morning with winds
becoming calm overnight.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions should prevail on Wednesday
as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Widespread areas of
sub-VFR ceilings and vsbys are likely starting Thursday
afternoon into Friday as a strong storm system brings showers, a
few thunderstorms and gusty winds to the TAF sites. Conditions
should improve to VFR as the storm exits late Friday night and
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short term /through Tonight/...
As of 535 AM Tuesday...No changes to previous thinking.
Continue the SCA`s for the Sounds and near shore waters today.
Ongoing northerly surge 15-25 kt this morning is forecast to
diminish this afternoon to 10 to 20 kt, then as high pressure
crests over the waters tonight winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kt
after midnight. Seas will build to 4-7 ft today (highest over
the northern and central waters), then subside to 2-4 ft late
tonight as winds become light.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...As high pressure shifts offshore on
Wednesday, winds should veer from NE to more E/SE, but will
remain light at 10 knots or less. With an approaching storm
system, winds and seas ramp up Thursday into Friday with Gale
Force winds possible Thursday night as SE/S winds of 25-35
knots are expected with gusts to near 40 knots possible. Seas
build to as high as 10-15 feet by Thursday night. These rough
conditions will persist into the weekend as strong low pressure
passes to the west and north of our area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ130-
     131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JME/CTC
MARINE...JME/CTC


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