Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 160812
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
412 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Weak shortwave passing overhead will bring
some cirrus coverage through the morning, with mainly clear
skies emerging by midday. High pressure dominates, with light
synoptic winds and highs in the mid 70s to near 80 for most of
the area prompting the development of a complex set to
sea/sound/river breezes this afternoon, with limited cu coverage
possible along and inland of sea breeze fronts. Lack of deep
moisture precludes any rain chances, though increasing mid level
moisture could bring increasing clouds mainly north of the Neuse
River by late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Surface high pressure ridging in from the
north keeps mainly light winds in place tonight. A band of Gulf
of Mexico-sourced mid level moisture riding around the northern
edge of mid level ridging over the Southeast will move over the
area late. While dry low level air and subsidence aloft will
suppress significant rain chances, hi-res guidance indicates
that there could be enough moisture advection and weak
conditions instability in the mid levels to generate some virga
with sprinkles occasionally reaching the ground mainly north of
a line from Kinston to New Bern to Cape Hatteras. Lows in the
lower to mid 50s for most, with realized lows dependent on cloud
coverage through the early morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Generally dry conditions will dominate
through the long term with temps near climo through mid week
warming to above normal late in the week.

Monday and Tuesday...A northern stream shortwave pushes across
the Midwest and mid-Atlantic states Monday into Tuesday. The
best dynamics remains north of the area but sufficient moisture
will be present with PW values around 1.25" to bring widely
scattered showers across the region. Instability looks limited
but cannot rule out an isolated tstm through peak heating. Temps
continue near normal with highs near 80 inland and low to mid
70s coast.

Wednesday and Saturday...Upper ridging builds aloft Wednesday
through the end of the week with sfc high pressure centered
across the area bringing dry conditions and a warming trend.
High temps inland will be in the mid 80s mid week with upper
80s by Friday and lower 90s next weekend. Coastal sections will
be a bit cooler with highs in the mid to upper 70s with lower
80s possible next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Sun...Very efficient radiational cooling occuring
very early this morning, with some shallow fog possible near
rivers, which is most likely to be observed at EWN and PGV, with
TEMPO groups maintained in the TAF accordingly. Otherwise, only
light winds and high clouds through the TAF period. Radiation
fog is looking a bit more prevalent early Monday morning, with
no restrictions have been added to the TAFs yet.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
long term. Could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR
conditions late Monday into Tuesday. Also, cannot rule out
patchy light fog during the late night/early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Mainly light to moderate N to NE winds
prevail today and tonight as high pressure ridges in from the
north. Sea/Sound/River breezes will develop this afternoon with
briefly more gusty winds possible near shore mid to late
afternoon. Seas remain mainly 2 to 4 ft in weak northeast
windswell, with some medium period swell mixed in from an area
of easterly gales over the Sargasso Sea.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Benign marine conditions are expected
through the extended period with high pressure dominating
through the period. E to NE winds around 5-15 kt continues
Monday and Tuesday, then become variable around 10 kt or less
Wednesday and Thursday. Seas will mainly be 2-4 ft through the
long term with up to 5 ft across the outer portions of the
central waters Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/CB
MARINE...SK/CB


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