Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241206
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
706 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the area
late tonight into early Saturday morning. High pressure then
builds in behind the front for the second half of the weekend.
Fast moving low pressure may bring rain for Monday before high
pressure builds back in through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 705 AM Friday...Patchy showers impacting mostly coastal
and far southern portions of the CWA at daybreak. Clouds
continue to increase across the region early this morning as
precipitable water surges to over an inch by later today. Will
continue with a small PoP during the early morning hours. PoPs
increase to chance this afternoon as precipitation moves into
the CWA from the west with cold front. Showers will be scattered
late in the day as the bulk of the precipitation arrives after
dark tonight. Strong WAA will lead to a very mild day with highs
in the mid 60s in most areas, except lower 60s on the Outer
Banks. Some lower clouds and patches of fog will be possible,
especially early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 355 AM Friday...Good agreement amongst the short-range and
high-resolution models showing line of showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Some moderate CAPE values are possible along the immediate coast
in the vicinity of the front toward morning. Any thunderstorms
that do form could be locally strong to severe, but the best
instability and support for storms will remain just offshore.
With deep moisture and precipitable water values around 1.25",
will forecast categorical PoPs toward morning, with one-third to
one-half inch of rain possible as the system passes. Gusty winds
ahead of the front will hold minimum temperatures up in the low
to mid 50s area-wide, with temperatures generally holding steady
after a low around midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...A strong cold front moves through the area
Saturday morning, bringing a return to seasonably cool weather
Sunday through the mid week period. Fast moving low pressure may
bring some rain to the area on Monday before dry high pres
builds through mid week.

Saturday...A cold front associated with stacked low pressure
lifting from the Ohio Valley towards the Northeastern states
will cross early Saturday morning. Strong prefrontal southerly
LLJ (40+ kts) and WAA as a wave of low pressure developing
within the front will lift across central NC toward the Mid-
Atlantic coast. This low will provide kinematics necessary for
some robust convection, if enough instability can be advected
off the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Sfc flow will be SSE, so best
chance of seeing a strong to marginally severe storm still
appears to be Downeast Carteret through the srn OBX zones.
Strong wind gusts are the main threats, though an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out given the slightly backed sfc flow
providing some enhanced helicity. Areas further north and west
should be stable enough to preclude thunderstorms, but some
heavier embedded showers could still produce gusty winds. Dry
and warm for Saturday following early morning showers with 60s
for high temps.

Sunday...Deep layer subsidence will keep a dry forecast in
place into mid week. High pressure building in from the
southwest will generally be mild with quasi-zonal flow in place,
and near normal temps expected with highs in the 50s, lows in
the 30s.

Monday...24/00Z global model suite now indicating a fast moving
low pressure area embedded in a progressive shortwave may bring
some -RA to the area, and have introduced rain chances for Mon.
QPF amts look to be light, generally around a tenth of an inch
or less. Because of the rain and clouds, knocked temps down a
couple of degrees, mainly in the low 50s.

Tuesday through Thursday...A tricky fcst this period as flow
will continue to be progressive with quasi zonal flow in place.
Models and their respective ensembles hint at energy moving
through the main flow which may spur cyclogenesis over the SE
CONUS, but detailing when/if this will happen is difficult in
this flow regime, and will only retain 20-30% pops this period.
Temps will continue near climo, with highs generally in the 50s
and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Saturday/...
As of 705 PM Friday...Mixed bag in aviation this morning with
LIFR inland at KPGV and KISO at daybreak. Any LIFR ceilings
should improve to VFR in the next couple of hours, before
returning to MVFR/IFR by evening and through the overnight hours
as precipitation moves in associated with cold front crossing
the area.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Return to VFR by 12-15Z Saturday behind the
cold front, with VFR likely lasting through mid week with high
pressure in control. There may be some sub VFR on Monday if
light rain and clouds move into the area, but then VFR returns
Monday night and through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 705 PM Friday...Winds continue NE/E at 10-15 knots at
daybreak with gusts to 19 knots at Diamond Buoy and 30 miles
southeast of New River Inlet. Seas are holding in the 5-7 foot
range. Winds will gradually veer to ESE/SE later today and
more S/SW tonight and increase to 15-25 knots, with some higher
gusts, particularly over the central waters. Seas will build to
as high as 9-10 feet over central and northern zones later
tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all coastal
waters with no major changes to the current marine forecast.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Srly winds 20-30 kt continue early Sat for the
ctrl/srn waters, then turn swrly and diminish during the day
5-15 kt with seas slowly subsiding, dropping below 6 ft by later
Sat night into Sun morning. Generally good boating conditions
return Sunday through mid week as 5-15 kt winds continue with
seas no higher than 3-5 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Fri...Low pressure moving from off the Southeast
coast toward the central Atlantic could result in elevated tide
levels on the ocean and near the inlets into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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