Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 200645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
245 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

A warm front will lift north across the area tonight with low
pressure developing along it. The initial low will move
northeast Tuesday but another low will move across the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will then build in
from the northwest through the end of the week.


As of 925 PM Monday...No changes planned to fcst. Best cvrg of
shra next few hrs will be near cst with more sct activity
further W. Later tonight area of shra and a few tsra expected
to spread in from the W. Svr threat looks very slim thru
daybreak with models keeping bulk of instab off the
coast...HRRR also show organized line of storms passing well to
the S late.

Prev disc...Very complicated forecast the next 48 hours.
Tonight a warm front will lift slowly north across Eastern NC.
Initially think precipitation will be scattered through the
evening with better forcing accompanying the warm front as it
accelerates northward after midnight. the models continue to
indicate a triple point low forming along the front over the NC
Piedmont. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage and
intensity, especially across the northern half of the area at
this time with some thunder possible. Some of the higher
resolution models indicate that the convection could become
organized with a low end severe threat 8-14Z especially across
the north but we are not outlooked by the SPC at this time and
will continue to monitor. Lows temps will occur this evening but
then readings should begin slowly rise late most locations as
southerly flow develops in the warm sector.


As of 415 PM Monday...There could be a low end severe threat
early in the morning with the bulk of the precipitation moving
offshore around 14Z. Then there should be a couple of hour lull
from late morning through early afternoon. The models bring a
cold front into coastal plain and north coast by mid morning as
the initial low moves off the VA Capes. There is strong
agreement in the guidance that convection will rapidly develop
across especially eastern portions of the area after 18Z. This
will be occurring as a shortwave trough approaches the area and
bulk shear is supportive of sustained updrafts with enough CAPE
to support organized convection. Think the main threats will be
large hail and damaging wind gusts although an isolated tornado
can`t be ruled out. The SPC has the "Enhanced" outlook just to
our south with a "Slight" outlook across the southern half of
the area and a "Marginal" outlook across the north. Areas to
east of the cold front should warm into the low 70s before the
storms begin.


As of 415 PM Monday...Tuesday night through Wednesday
night...The upper trough strengthens during this period into a
closed mid level low center which is progged to move across the
mid Atlantic Wed and then off of the coast Wed evening. Tue
evening mid level drying should cause a temporary end to the
precipitation with rain redeveloping late at night and Wed as
the base of the upper trough rotates overhead. Secondary surface
low pressure development is expected off the NC coast Tue
evening with the low moving slowly NE just off off the east
coast through Wed evening. As the secondary low strengthens off
the east coast; deep wrap around moisture will coincide with
CAA...leading to a transition of rain to a rain/snow mix,
especially for the coastal plains late Wed. Best chances to see
wintry mix Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At this time
not forecasting snow accumulations, but will continue to

Expect highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Tuesday. Temperature will
drop into the 40s Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop each night
with lows in the upper 30s/around 40 inland and low 40s along the
OBX Tuesday night. Wednesday night expect lows in the low to mid 30s
inland and mid 30s along the OBX.

Thursday through Sunday ...Conditions will improve Thursday as drier
airmass filters in as high pressure builds in from the NW and
lasting through Friday. Models are showing another low pressure
system developing over the central plains, and progged to move west
and north of the area. This system will bring an increase showers
across the region this weekend with high pressure build behind the
departing low.

Expect highs in the in the low 50s inland and mid/upper 40s OBX
Thursday. Temperatures will increase each day; ranging in the 50s
across the area, except OBX where temperatures will range in the
upper 40s/low 50s. The coldest night this week will be Thursday
night with lows in the low/mid 30s inland and upper 30s along the
OBX. Then overnight temperatures will increase each night, except
Sunday with temps ranging mid 30s to low 40s Friday and Sunday night
and mid/upper 40s Sat night.


Short Term /through 06Z Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...Complex surface and upper level pattern
will lead to somewhat complicated forecast during TAF period. SE
winds ahead of warm front lifting up from south has lead to IFR
stratus developing at all but KOAJ past few hours and lower CIGs
expected to persist overnight. Widespread rain shield with a few
embedded tstms will move over area from west to east mainly
08Z-14Z with IFR CIGs and MVFR to occasional IFR VSBYs. Lull in
activity between shortwaves will allow conditions to improve to
VFR or high end MVFR during the day, then another period of
showers and scattered tstms expected late afternoon into early
evening with mainly MVFR conditions. A few storms could be
strong to severe near KEWN and KOAJ. Developing post-frontal
rain will lead to IFR CIGs 03Z-06Z.

Long Term /Wednesday through Friday/...
As of 415 PM Mon...Expect widespread showers and sub VFR
conditions as a low pressure system produce widespread
precipitation across the area late Tue night into Wed. Wednesday
night as the low lifts NE, there is a chance for a mix of
rain/snow to effect PGV and ISO. VFR conditions will return
Thursday and Fri as high pressure begins to build into the area.


Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 925 PM Monday...No changes with increasing SE winds that
will become more S late as warm front lifts N. The increasing
winds will lead to seas building to 6 ft late tonight or early
Tue central and srn wtrs.

Prev disc...SE winds are mainly 15 kt or less late today but
will become S and increase to 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts
tonight as a warm front moves north of the waters late. Low
pressure is forecast to develop along front near Albemarle Sound
late tonight. Resulting increase in winds will cause seas over
the southern and central waters to build to 4 to 7 ft late
tonight into Tue. Winds Tue are expected to become SW 10 to 20
kt with gusts to 25 kt keeping seas elevated over the southern
and central waters throughout the day.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 415 PM Mon... Small Craft conditions will last through
most of the week as secondary and major low pressure system
moves through the coastal waters Tue evening then slowly up the
east coast Wed/Wed night. Winds will veer to SW then NW 15 to 25
kt late Tuesday and NW-N Tue night and Wed. Seas will build 4-6
ft Tuesday and reach as high as 9-10 feet over the central and
northern waters Wednesday night. Seas will start to gradually
subside Thursday, but remain above 6 ft into Fri over the
central and northern waters.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ156-158.


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