Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 232119 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
419 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

A stationary front off the coast is expected to lift back to
the north across the area as a warm front tonight resulting in
continued unsettled weather. A strong cold front will cross the
region Sunday. High pressure will build in from the northwest
early next week.


.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Saturday...The latest sfc analysis shows the
stationary front across our coastal waters this afternoon, while
high pressure continues to ridge in from the north. Most of the
light rain/drizzle has shifted north or is along the Outer Banks
near the stationary front. The frontal boundary will move in as a
warm front and lift across the area tonight. Areas of light rain/
drizzle will continue through the evening; mostly over the
northern portions and along the Outer Banks. Precip should taper
off as Eastern NC gets into the warm sector with developing
southerly winds resulting in temps rising throughout the night
along with fog developing overnight with possible patchy dense
fog. Low temps will occur in the evening.


As of 325 PM Saturday...Eastern NC will be in the warm sector
ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is expected
to push through late in the day, leading to a very warm day with
high temps in the mid/upper 70s inland with beaches mid 60s to
low 70s. Moisture looks to weaken as it approaches the area from
the west; therefore have the highest PoPs (50%) along the
coastal plains to 30% pops along the coastal counties and light
rainfall amounts. Given warm temps most models continue very
weak instab and added isold aftn tsra for mainly highway 17
corridor. It will become windy Sunday with SW winds of 15-25
mph, with some gusts up to 30-35 mph.


As of 330 PM Sat...

Sunday night through Tue...Dry high pres builds in thru Tue with
temps not far from normal with highs lower 50s NE to around 60/lower
60s SW Mon and Tue. WNW winds Monday will remain around 10-15
mph with a few higher gusts up to 20-25 mph; otherwise winds
throughout the period will be fairly light. Lows Sun night
relatively mild with continued mixed atms with readings
generally in the low 40s. Mon night will be colder with good
radiational cooling conditions expected with lows in the low
30s interior to mid/upr 30s beaches.

Wed through Thu...Models continue to differ this period as next
frontal system impacts the area. The GFS is the wetter
solution, generating multiple southern stream shortwave troughs
over the southern plains and dragging a couple systems over the
area during the second half of the week. The ECMWF and Canadian
are a bit drier, though do hint at in-situ type wedge situation
developing once again, with high pres ridging in from the
northeast while coastal troughiness takes shape and brings light
rain chances mainly to the coast. Will side with the
WPC/Euro/CMC solution and hedge on the cooler side, keeping
highs mainly in the 50s this period. GFS advertising highs in
the 60s however, and appears to be a warm outlier. Still plenty
of uncertainty this period regarding rain chances, though did
highlight low chc pops for coastal/srn zones, with just slgt chc
inland for wed/thu.

Friday through Saturday...Low pres may develop ahead of short
wave late in week into the weekend but again confidence quite
low in this fast moving zonal pattern so just low chc pops
Fri/Sat. Temps should be near climo with the zonal flow.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1 PM Saturday...High confidence in IFR conditions to
conditions through most of the TAF period, especially for the
next 6-18 hours. CAD surface pressure pattern allowing for
widespread low clouds (IFR conditions) and light rain/drizzle.
These conditions will continue through the evening hours with
possible patchy dense fog for late tonight, then a warm front
should lift north through the area resulting in a decrease in
precipitation tonight. Model guidance continues to hang on to
IFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibilities all night even in the
warm sector behind the warm front though some improvement in
conditions to MVFR would be possible after 12Z as gusty southerly
flow develops ahead of the cold front. Also, LLWS will develop for
all TAF sites starting around 8z tonight.

Long Term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Sat...High confidence in VFR finally returning Sun
night dominating through mid week as dry high pres builds in
from NW. Winds a bit gusty on Monday with WNW gusts to around 20
kt possible.


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Sat...The latest buoy obs are showing NE
10-15 knots and seas mostly 4-6 ft across the coastal waters.
Seas will gradually diminish below 6 ft tonight. Winds will
veer to E and SE in this early this evening north of Cape
Lookout, then continue to veer to the S and SW as a warm front
lifts north through the waters. Speeds will increase from 10-15
kt in the evening to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt toward
dawn. Seas will be 3-5 ft overnight.

Complicated and busy marine forecast on Sunday, as a warm front
lifts north tonight and then a strong cold front swings through
Sunday. Patchy to areas of dense marine fog possible starting
this evening as warm front lifts north and winds become south
bringing warm moist air over the colder waters. The dense fog
will be a threat through Sunday morning, when winds increase
enough to mix out the fog. The attention then turns to SCA and
gale conditions, with winds 20-30 kt expected for the marine
zones, though higher for the waters from Oregon Inlet to Surf
City, especially over the warm Gulf Stream waters, where winds
gust to 40 kt or higher.

Long Term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Sat...The winds turn west to wnw on Sunday
night and remain gusty with gradient remaining tight.

WNW winds gradually diminish to 10-20 kt late Monday. Seas will
grad subside below 6 ft by Monday afternoon. Very light winds
Tue with high over region and seas will drop to 1 to 3 ft. Will
lean closer to ECMWF long term with winds turning NE behind
backdoor cold front mid week though keep winds/seas below SCA
mainly 2 to 4 feet.


MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ136-
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
     Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ158.


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