117
FXUS62 KMHX 232050
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
350 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through this evening, followed by
high pressure returning through this weekend. By early next
week high pressure will remain entrenched over the Deep South,
and will eventually shift offshore later next week with mostly
dry conditions continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Renewed travel impacts this evening and tonight

 - Cold Weather Advisory issued for single digit wind chills
   tonight

A weak surface low will move northeast offshore of the Carolinas
through early this evening, and may glance the Outer Banks with
some very light precipitation. With temperatures near/below
freezing, it may be a mix of light flurries and/or very light
freezing rain. At this time, there isn`t expected to be
sufficient precipitation to cause any impacts, but we`ll keep an
eye on trends in case it starts looking more impactful.

Eventually, a weak surface front will cross ENC later this
evening, with drier air advecting in, ending any precip risk
along the OBX. Modest CAA behind the front will lead to falling
low-level thicknesses. Because of the front moving through,
though, the boundary layer is expected to be a bit more mixed.
Additionally, a plume of high cirrus is expected to continue to
be in place through tonight. While these are limiting factors
for how cold it could otherwise get with fresh snowpack, we
still expect very cold conditions, with another night of well
below normal temperatures. Even with a more mixed boundary
layer, the fresh snowpack should enhance how cold it gets
tonight, and I went below blended guidance. This, plus 5-10 mph
winds, should support an increased risk of wind chill ("feels
like") temperatures in the single digits and teens for most of
ENC. In light of this, we have issued another Cold Weather
Advisory for tonight. The one area left out of the Advisory is
the Outer Banks, where wind chill values are expected to not be
as cold as elsewhere.

Lastly, temperatures managed to rise just above freezing this
afternoon thanks to a break in the clouds (ie. extra sunshine)
and slightly warmer low-level thicknesses. This has quickened
the melting of snow and ice on some roads. However, any melted
ice/snow should quickly refreeze this evening as temperatures
fall back below/well below freezing. Because wintry
precipitation is not expected to be falling tonight, we have
transitioned the messaging of ice/snow on roads to a Special
Weather Statement(SPS). However, it should be noted that
tonight`s road conditions are expected to be very similar to
what we saw last night and this morning. We want everyone to
understand that the lack of a Winter Weather Advisory doesn`t
equate to less impactful conditions. It just means there won`t
be any falling precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Travel impacts continue

 - Very cold conditions Friday morning and again Friday night

Friday is expected to start out in the teens and 20s for air
temperatures, with wind chill ("feels like") temperatures in the
single digits and teens. A Cold Weather Advisory runs through
mid- morning to highlight the impact from the cold. Like today,
temperatures should be slow to rise, but should get a few
degrees above today`s highs. This should allow for continued
melting of ice/snow on roads, with gradual improvement expected.

The boundary layer looks to remain decently mixed again Friday
night. However, low-level thicknesses are forecast to be colder
compared to tonight, and there should continue to be some impact
due to lingering snowpack. This sets the stage for another
night of very cold conditions, and yet another Cold Weather
Advisory may eventually be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1540 Thursday...

KEY POINTS:

 - Snow melt Saturday will refreeze Saturday night, resulting in
   black ice concerns

 - Relatively warmer weekend in store after cold start Sat AM

 - Monday continues trending drier, rain chances now 20-30%

Saturday (1/25) - Sunday (1/26):

Saturday and Sunday SFC high pressure resides over SECONUS and
mostly zonal flow in place overhead in the wake of the upper low
departing to the NE. The weekend will be the warm up period after
this week`s snowfall event with the last of the remaining snow on
the ground finally melting away by late weekend. With that said,
Saturday morning will start off in the Ts with AppTs flirting with
Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but the Sun will warm things up
quickly through clear skies Saturday; MaxTs low-mid 40s. Saturday
night we get back to more of a WSWerly SFC flow regime which will
push the Arctic airmass offshore and away from the FA. Sunday warmer
yet despite the increased cloud coverage from weak shortwave
traveling about Great Lakes upper low.

Monday (1/27):

Monday a weak, E-W oriented front will sink S through the FA upping
cloud coverage and increasing precip chances. Locally we`ll remain
sandwiched between the upper trough over Eern CAN and the Sern
stream system crossing Nern Gulfcoast states. A spread in guidance
on precip chances remains, overall ensembles seem less bullish on
rainfall and GFS trending Sward. For this reason, have trended PoPs
down a tad with this update, similar to last night`s forecast trend.
If we do get precip, there is solid consensus on the highest chances
being S of hwy 264. Have removed mentionable PoPs first half of
day and replaced with patchy drizzle for now. Schc PoPs north
of 264, Chc PoPs south of 264 Monday afternoon. Ptypes are
expected to be only rain with this system, but the front end of
the precip event will have to be worth watching, especially
should precip start earlier in the day than currently forecast,
while temps are at their coldest.

Tuesday (1/28) - Thursday (1/29):

Confidence decreases behind the front through the work-week with
questions about where the front will end up, and how the boundary
will react/move in response to the development of weak cyclogenesis
along the boundary spurred by weak waves traveling through the upper
level low over Eern CAN. Warming trend ensues mid-week, with highs
climbing to the mid to upper 50s Thursday. Thursday brings precip
chances back up as the boundary meanders back Nward up the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 18z Friday/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

A weak surface cold front will move through eastern NC this
evening, and will be accompanied by a minor bump up in
northwesterly winds. A substantial wind shift/wind increase is
not expected, though. Thanks to limited moisture, little, if
any, low clouds are expected with that front. This supports a
high likelihood (>80% chance) of VFR conditions over the next 24
hours.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...VFR expected through the weekend.
Monday could bring sub-VFR CIGs along with chances of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday night/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

 - Elevated winds to continue through Friday night

A weak cold front is forecast to move through the ENC waters
this evening, leading to a bump up in northwesterly winds to
15-20kt. Occasional gusts to 25kt are possible for the outer
coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras that still have sea
surface temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Given the occasional
nature of the 25kt wind gusts, a Small Craft Advisory is not
anticipated during this time. Northwesterly winds will continue
into Friday night, and may be enhanced at times as the gradient
tightens between inland high pressure and coastal troughing well
offshore. Once again, occasional gusts to 25kt will be possible
for the warmer waters, but marine headlines are not expected.
Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through Friday night, with
occasional 6 ft seas for the outer central coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...Winds will be 5-15kt out of the NW
Saturday and W/SW Sunday as high pressure dominates. Monday
winds are 10-15kt out of the west, with chances of rain, highest
for Pamlico Sound south for inland waters, and Oregon Inlet
south for coastal waters. Waves gradually decrease through the
weekend, becoming 2-3 ft Sunday evening and 1-2 ft Monday
evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-
     199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ