Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 201119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
719 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

High pressure offshore will extend west into Eastern North Carolina
through mid week as a weak trough of low pressure lingers well inland.
A cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and into
next weekend.


As of 715 AM Tuesday...No changes needed to the forecast early
this morning as partly cloudy and quiet weather continues. A
plume of mid to high level moisture continues across the
Carolinas this morning. This will lead to a partly cloudy day
inland with a bit more sunshine toward the coast. A consensus of
the high-resolution models shows convection starting over the
Albemarle Sound region later in the day then advecting south
through the evening, with minimal activity through early to mid-
afternoon and will trend the forecast in this direction with
40% PoPs north and 20-30% south. Given precipitable water values
in the neighborhood of 2 inches, heavy downpours will again
will be possible in the stronger storms today. High temperatures
should range from the upper 80s coast to lower 90s inland,
perhaps 2 or 3 degrees cooler than yesterday due to a bit more
cloud cover.


As of 330 AM Tuesday...Any convection should end by late evening
with loss of heating. Debris cloudiness is likely to be leftover
for most of the night leading to a partly cloudy night. Lows
should mainly be in the low/mid 70s.


As of 240 AM Tues...High pressure will extend over the area
through Thursday with only scattered thunderstorms expected.
A cold front will approach the area Friday, and then slowly
cross through the forecast area over the weekend, leading to
another period of unsettled weather.

Wednesday and Thursday...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
expected Wednesday and Thursday with a weak lee trough forming
over central NC, and continued possible convective initiation
along the sea breeze each day. Also expecting some nocturnal
offshore convection to blossom and move over coastal areas in
the overnight hours both nights. High temps will be slightly
above average through this period, with readings in the low 90s
inland and the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Warm and humid
nights will continue.

Friday through Monday...Major model differences remain from
Friday through early next week as a cold front moves south into
the area. The latest GFS still shows a quick moving front
dropping into NC on Friday and then sinking south of the area
by Friday night...and into the Deep South by the end of the
weekend. In this solution Friday and the first half of Saturday
would be very wet, with drier and much cooler air moving into
the region. Meanwhile the latest ECMWF shows a slower moving
front still in southern VA Friday night, which finally crosses
into the area by Sunday...and then stalls just south of the
forecast area, which would lead to an extended period of
unsettled weather Saturday through at least Monday.

Will continue to hedge towards a middle solution, but with much
of the upper level trough remaining north of the area and with
the current time of year in mind, would tend to favor a solution
closer to the ECMWF with a slow moving front eventually stalling
around or just south of the area. So, will keep high chance PoPs
in the forecast from Friday into early next week. Temperatures
will likely be slightly below normal through this period with
highs mostly in the low to mid 80s, and low temps seasonably
cool in the 60s and low 70s.


Short Term /through 12Z Wednesday/...
As of 715 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites
this morning as fog failed to materialize despite calm to near
calm winds and high dewpoints. VFR conditions expected through
most of the TAF cycle with widespread mid and high level clouds
across the region. A few scattered showers or storms are
possible this afternoon and evening, but any reductions to
ceiling and vsbys are expected to be short-lived. With little in
the way of fog forecast by the latest round of numerical
guidance, will keep conditions VFR for tonight as well.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tues...Mostly VFR conditions expected through
Friday morning, with scattered convection expected during the
afternoons and evenings. Then Friday afternoon through much of
the weekend, low visibilities and ceilings are possible as a
cold front moves into the area and rain chances increase. Patchy
fog also possible in the early mornings with high dewpoints and
rather light winds.


Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...Forecast continues in good shape with no
changes needed for this update. With high pressure continuing
offshore and weak surface troughing inland, winds should remain
SW at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 today and tonight.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tues...Decent boating conditions expected
Wednesday, but then conditions deteriorate for much of the rest
of the week, with marginal Small Craft conditions possible.

Winds will be mostly SW 10-15 kts Wednesday, before increasing
to SW 15-20 kts Wednesday night through Friday morning, with
gusts up to around 25 kts along the coastal waters and Pamlico
Sound. Winds will weaken and turn to the west, and eventually
north, as a cold front crosses the region on Saturday.

Seas will be 2-4 ft through Wednesday night, and then increase
to 3-5 ft early Thursday morning through Friday afternoon, with
some 6 foot seas possible along the outer coastal waters. Seas
then continue to subside to 2-4 on Saturday.





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