Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 282351
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
651 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area tomorrow. High pressure
will build into the region from the north Tuesday followed by
low pressure moving through the middle of next week. High
pressure builds back in to round out the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 640 PM Sunday...Latest obs show some development of patchy
marine fog along coastal locations. Expecting more dense marine
fog to move ashore tonight. Otherwise, no changes to the prev
disc.

Prev disc...The tricky part of the forecast will be the
development of sea fog invading across the coastal areas such as
the Crystal Coast through the northern OBX as moist southwest
flow moves over the cooler waters. Continued the mentioned of
low visibilities across the aforementioned locations as
conditions are conductive.

A cold front will approach the region from the west overnight.
Ahead of the boundary, an increase of clouds with warm, humid,
and breezy conditions, especially along the coast. Expect a mild
night with overnight lows in the low 60s inland and 50s along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday... The cold front is forecast to be over the
foothill of NC by sunrise and gradually moving eastward during
the day. All the model guidance are showing rain to start by
mid- morning, but then model diverge in the intensity and
coverage area as the rain moves eastward. The global models are
showing rain becoming widespread by the afternoon, while the
Hi-Res models are showing the rain weakening as it moves through
ENC. At this time, went pessimistic with chance to categorical
pops though the afternoon, then diminishing from west to east as
the cold front is expected to be offshore late afternoon/early
evening. Temperature will be warm ahead of the front, expect
temps to reach into the low-mid 70s inland and low-mid 60s along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...Much cooler and dry for Tuesday, followed
by more rain mid week as a low pressure area tracks offshore,
then dry again late week with another high building in. There
are mixed signals in the models regarding a possible coastal low
and it`s impacts on Eastern NC during next weekend.

Monday night into Tuesday...Good agreement that transitory high
pres will be passing through the Mid Atlantic, bringing much
cooler, dry, and sunny weather to the region. High temps below
climo, only in the 45-50 degree range with brisk northerly
winds, esp near the coast.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Better model agreement on
upper pattern by midweek, as they are converging on a solution
with the next shortwave ejecting out of the Four Corners region
early in the week, passing through the TN Valley on Tue, and
then through the SERN CONUS mid week. This will bring decent
rain chances late Tue night and esp Wed. Confidence has
increased enough to increase PoPs to likely. Temps near climo
this period, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s and lows 35-45.

Thursday through Friday...Drying expected as another high pres
area builds in on progressive quasi zonal flow. Temps appear to
be near climo due to the zonal pattern, with highs in the 55-65
degree range, and lows generally 40-45.

Saturday...Looks like low pressure will be developing off the
southeast coast next Sat-Sunday. The track of this system will
be critical to how much wind/precipitation impact`s there will
be across Eastern NC with earlier forecasts indicating the
potential for strong winds and wintry precipitation. The 00Z
models were more suppressed with less wind/precipitation and
chances for wintry precipitation. This is almost a week away so
expecting a lot of variance in solutions over the next couple of
days but will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday Afternoon/...
As of 645 PM Sunday...Prevailing VFR conditions expected through
Monday morning. Persistent SSW flow continues overnight around
10 kts with gusts around 15 kts. Hi res guidance suggests the
potential for some LLWS in the vicinity of the terminals
tonight. Confidence remains low for criteria being met with
latest guidance backing off slightly, but can still expect
winds aloft inc overnight as our next cold front nears the
region. Inserted a few hours of LLWS into the TAFs to address
the concern. Winds will gust to around 20 kts after daybreak
Monday before the cold front pushes through in the late morning
and early afternoon. Expect moments of reduced visibility as a
line of showers pushes through the region. Models have lifted
expected ceilings in the latest runs, but MVFR conditions remain
possible in the afternoon. Ceilings will lift behind the front
and return terminals to a high confidence VFR by late Monday
aftn.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...Next cold front moves through Monday with
widespread rain showers and sub VFR conditions. Dry high pres
builds in for Mon night through Tue with VFR again. A low pres
area moves just off the coast Wed with good rain chances and
more sub VFR possible. High pressure builds in Thu with dry
weather and VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 345 PM Sunday... The latest buoy observations are showing
SW winds 10-15 knots and seas 3-4 ft across the coastal waters.
SW winds will increase to 15-20 knots tonight, then increasing
further to 15-25 knots overnight through Monday as the gradient
tightens due to a cold front approaching the coastal waters.
Winds will shift to the NW after the cold front push through
early tomorrow evening. Seas will gradually build and become
4-6 ft overnight and peaking to 5-8 ft tomorrow afternoon. SCA
is in effect to start late tonight across all the coastal waters
including the Pamlico Sound.

The threat for sea fog continues as there have been pockets of
dense sea fog today across the coastal waters. Conditions remain
conductive as warm and humid air mass blows into the still cold
waters on southwest winds. Continued the mention of areas of
fog from the southern waters, north of Cape Hatteras, and the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds with vsbys at times dropping to 1/2
mile or so, as signals are strong for periods of dense fog
where cold water temps are present.


Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...SCA conditions will be ongoing Mon in the
brisk SW flow ahead of the cold front. Winds will briefly
diminish behind the front Mon afternoon to 10-15 kt as the flow
becomes NW, then winds are forecast to increase again to SCA
levels Mon night into Tue morning as cold advection produces
strong northerly flow. Winds will then diminish Tue night into
Wed morning while becoming SE, then increase yet again out of
the N to SCA levels late Wed into early Thu as low pressure
passes just off of the coast. Seas peak at 5-8 ft Mon into Tue
then briefly subside to 2-4 ft Tue night into Wed before
building back to 5-7 ft Wed night into Thu. Periods of sea fog
will be possibly continuing into Mon morning as SW winds advect
a warm and moist airmass over the cold near shore waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ135-150-152-
     154-156-158-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Tuesday
     for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...BM/ML
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/ML
MARINE...JME/BM


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