Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 120609
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
209 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge in from the Atlantic through the rest
of the week, while a trough of low pressure remains across the
Southeastern U.S. A weak backdoor cold front could move through
the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Tue...A quiet evening across ENC. For the rest of
the night, expect a few to sct showers to move across coastal
areas, especially the Outer Banks, though most places will
remain dry. Patchy fog could develop inland again, esp for
locations that saw rainfall. Lows will be in the low-70s inland
to mid/upr- 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...With sfc flow backed to the SSE, morning
showers along the coast in the AM should develop into some sct
thunderstorms in the afternoon once again, as PW`s remain quite
high and weakness in the mid levels continuing. Covg should
remain sct, so will cap pops no higher than the 30-50% range.
High temps near climo, generally in the upr 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...Wet weather along with seasonable
temperatures are expected through the long term period, with
only minor day to day variability owing to subtle changes in the
upper level pattern.

The southeastern US into the southern Mid Atlantic region will
remain under a mid level weakness through the period which will
become more pronounced over the weekend into early next week as
a long wave trough. In the lower levels, continued SW flow on
the periphery of the Bermuda high will keep ample low level
moisture in place through the period, with dewpoints remaining
in the 70s and PW values AOA 2". Through late week, the
convective pattern will be mainly diurnally driven with the
greatest threat for thunderstorms coming each afternoon along
and ahead of the sea breeze. Weak surface troughing gradually
strengthens inland through the week allow for greater storm
coverage each day, and would be expected to initiate convection
earlier in the day with less capping in place and could see
convection persist longer into the night over the weekend,
especially if a weak cold front moves into the area. While ample
moisture and instability will be present, shear will be meager
with 0-6 km bulk shear generally around 10 kt or less limiting
the severe threat. Still, cannot rule out stronger storms
producing isolated wind damage and heavy rainfall producing
localized flooding. Temps will generally continue to be near
normal, with convection being the primary culprit for deviations
from normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wed Night/...
As of 140 AM Wed...Latest obs show some patchy fog beginning to
develop across EWN/OAJ early this morning. Models are not
picking up on this well, but rainfall from Tuesday aftn is
providing decent low level moisture to fuel fog formation.
Expecting visibilities to oscillate between MVFR/IFR over the
next few hours at these sites, though confidence remains low
even now. Prior to sunrise, set EWN/OAJ at pred MVFR with vis
just shy of IFR at the moment to suggest that possibility.
PGV/ISO expected to oscillate between VFR/MVFR early this
morning becoming pred MVFR with fog prior to sunrise. VFR
conditions will return to all sites during the onset of daytime
with SSE winds 5-10 kts. A few showers and tstorms are possible
again in the afternoon, which could provide moments of sub-VFR
for terminals.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sun/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...Typical summertime pattern through the
period with light winds and diurnally enhanced convection each
day. Pred VFR conditions expected outside of showers and
thunderstorms and patchy early morning fog and/or stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Wed/...
As of 1000 PM Tue...S winds continue generally 5-15 kt across
the marine domain, and will back slightly to more serly on Wed.
Speeds will remain in the 5-15 kt range and seas continue around
1 foot nearshore with 2 ft further offshore. Some 3 ft sets may
build over the outer ctrl/srn waters late in the day Wed.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sun/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...Good boating conditions continue through
most of the long term. Expect S to SW winds 10-15 kt through
the period, with occasional gusts to around 20 kt each
afternoon/evening as the sea breeze develops and differential
heating tightens the gradient a bit locally. Seas will be 2-3 ft
through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/ML
MARINE...JME/TL/BM


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