Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 032311
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
711 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area into the weekend, as low
pressure lingers over the Atlantic. High pressure then
strengthens offshore early next week, as a weak front moves
into the region, and eventually pushes through the area by mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 700 PM Friday...Strong low pressure continues to circulate
well off the New England coast at early evening. Some lower
clouds associated with this system may skirt northeastern
portions of the CWA, but the remainder of the area should remain
clear overnight. Did lower temperatures a degree or two based on
current guidance with low/mid 40s inland and around 50 Outer
Banks. Winds are already showing signs of diminishing inland,
but will remain breezy near the coast.

With the expansive low retrograding offshore, expect seas to
build overnight, which could bring coastal flooding concerns
across the OBX north of Cape Hatteras, especially around high
tide and have issued a Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories
north of Cape Hatteras (see Tides/Coastal Flooding section
below).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Low pressure continues to retrograde
offshore Saturday with high pressure building in from the NW.
Wrap-around low level moisture will continue to spread clouds
into the area from the north with greatest coverage north of
highway 17. The clouds will be fairly shallow, so will not see
any rain, but it will keep temps several degrees cooler across
NE sections where high expected around 55-60. With more sun SW
sections, temps expected to reach 65-70 degrees.

Large swells continue to impact the coast through the day and
could see coastal flooding impacts continue, especially around
the afternoon high tide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As 330 AM Fri...Moderating conditions are expected into the
weekend, as large low pressure system meanders off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. High pressure then builds over the area Sunday,
before moving offshore early next week. A weak boundary then
moves into the area, leading to unsettled conditions through mid
week.

Saturday night and Sunday...As the low moves further offshore
Saturday night and Sunday, winds will eventually subside,
though remain out of the north as high pressure moves closer.
Expect a significant temperature gradient across the area both
days, as ocean influence keeps temperatures in the 50s to low
60s across the Outer Banks and Pamlico-Albemarle peninsula,
while temperatures climb into the upper 60s to low 70s to the
south and west.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will strengthen
off the NC coast Monday, and then a weak boundary will move
into Virginia pushing high pressure further offshore Tuesday.
After some scattered sea breeze showers on Monday, more
unsettled weather (a possibly a few thunderstorms) looks likely
Tuesday through Thursday as this boundary remains to the north
of the area, and then pushes south through Eastern NC as a cold
front sometime mid week. Low level heights will increase
substantially during this period, which will lead to warmer
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 705 PM Friday...VFR conditions will prevail through this
TAF cycle. Strong low pressure spinning well of New England may
send some lower clouds into the northeastern sections of the CWA
overnight, but those should stay east of the TAF sites. These
stratocumulus clouds may push farther west on Saturday with some
ceilings around 4000 feet in the afternoon. NW winds will
diminish overnight, and will not be as gusty on Saturday.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 340 AM Fri...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Some scattered showers possible after Monday morning,
and again Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 710 PM Friday...Not much change to the marine forecast as
winds are NW/N at 15 knots or less with seas 3-5 feet at early
evening. Low pressure over the western Atlantic will slowly
retrograde through the period bringing periods of gusty winds
and large swells, highest across the northern coastal waters.
Guidance shows winds increasing again late tonight and
Saturday. The low will bring building seas late tonight, peaking
as high as 8-12 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet and 4-7 ft south
late Saturday.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 340 AM Fri...Strong N winds will continue this weekend,
as a large low pressure system retrogrades south off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. Winds will be N 15-25 kts Saturday night into
Sunday morning with gusts close to Gale Force. Then, winds
subside through the day Sunday, becoming SW on Monday and
strengthening to 10-20 kts. Winds then become W 15-25 kts Monday
night into Tuesday.

Seas will be elevated and dangerous this weekend peaking at
8-12 ft east and north of Cape Lookout, while remaining 3-6 ft
across the southern waters. Seas begin to subside Sunday night,
but will remain 5-7 ft through Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 PM Friday...Coastal flooding concerns will continue
along the Outer Banks this weekend as low pressure over the
Atlantic retrogrades back towards the East Coast. Beaches will
begin to see long period swell from the distant low arrive late
tonight, peaking late Saturday and Saturday night. The large,
powerful wave action will result in a prolonged period of wave
run up (double digit seas with periods 14-15 seconds), with the
threats for very rough surf, coastal flooding, beach erosion,
and ocean overwash. Moderate to potentially significant impacts
will be possible for ocean side locations of the Outer Banks.
This could impact portions of Highway 12, especially at times of
high tide. Have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory north of Cape
Hatteras through both high tide cycles Saturday. P-ETSS guidance
showing peak water levels slightly lower with each tide cycle
after Saturday, but will have to monitor for continued coastal
flooding concerns as large swells will still be impacting the
beaches. Rough surf conditions are expected to continue into
next week, and have also issued a High Surf Advisory north of
Cape Hatteras through Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...CTC/SK/SGK
MARINE...CTC/SK/SGK
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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