Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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683
FXUS62 KMHX 090900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
400 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move north through the area this morning. A
strong cold front will move through Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. High pressure will build north of the area through
late next week, with another system likely impacting the area
late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 310 AM Monday...Subtle mid-level shortwave is currently
sliding over the eastern Carolinas this morning while at the
surface a coastal trough/warm front is oriented along Highway
17. Main band of showers is slowly pushing east with very light
rain/drizzle over the coastal plain. Expect the heavier precip
to continue eastward as the shortwave exits to the east although
with a nearby Gulf Stream a shower threat will linger for OBX
for much of the day. With a strong frontal inversion inland low
stratus and occasional low visibilities are expected until mid-
morning as the warm front eventually lifts north with
increasing S/SW flow, and skies allowing a few peaks of sunshine
later in the afternoon. Despite increasing low level
thicknesses think low- level clouds should moderate temps
somewhat, but still have highs reaching around 70 for southern
zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Mainly dry for tonight except for a
continuing shower threat along the OBX, but with a very moist
atmospheric column cloud cover will be abundant. Coupled with
good low-level WAA temps will be well above average tonight with
a non-diurnal temperature curve and lows AOA 60 for all inland
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Periods of unsettled weather expected
through much of the long term period, with roller coaster temps
as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected.

Tuesday...Mostly dry weather and very warm temps are expected.
In fact could see some record highs threatened on Tue as highs
flirt with the 80 degree mark, which makes sense given fcst low
lvl thicknesses soaring to aoa 1380M under partly cloudy skies
and well mixed bndry layer in swrly flow (see climate section
below).

Tuesday night through Wednesday...More widespread shower
activity is expected again Tuesday night into early Wed. Best
chances of rain will be interior areas initially, spreading
eastward overnight into early morning Wed. Could be some thunder
embedded in the showers along the immediate coast where some
instability will reside, mainly Downeast Carteret through the
OBX. The strong cold front will push through the area by Wed
morning, with dry conditions returning during the afternoon
hours all areas. Temps will swing to the other side of climo,
and only be in the upper 40s N to low/mid 50s S for highs.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Strong high pressure will
build in from the north with much cooler and drier air Wed night
and Thursday with highs Thu only in the 40s in most locations.
Widespread lows near or below freezing Thursday morning.

Friday through Sunday...Rain chances inc Fri through Sat as
deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across
the lower MS River Valley, which will spur several areas of low
pressure along the eastern seaboard. Have maintained likely pops
centered on Fri night into Sat as models converging on this
period being wettest. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be
possible. Depending on exact track of said low pressure areas,
there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if
storm tracks are further inland. Drier conditions with near
normal temps could arrive Sunday as low pressure moves well
east of the area, though will include a silent 20% chc rain.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 100 AM Mon...Currently a mix of IFR/LIFR conditions as
boundary wobbles around the vicinity of EWN, which has bounced
up to MVFR a couple times so far. Expect widespread IFR or worse
for most areas continuing into mid to late morning as most areas
will be on the cool side of the boundary with low clouds. Shower
threat is slowly tapering off for coastal plain but lower
visibilities in heavier showers still a threat especially
further east. Ceilings lift to MVFR late this morning then
become VFR in the afternoon as clouds lift in southwesterly
flow. Winds may be somewhat gusty in the afternoon.

Long Term /Tue through Fri/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Unsettled weather is expected Tue night
through early Wednesday with gusty winds, scattered showers and
periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Dry weather returns
second half of Wed through Thu. Increasing moisture Friday will
lead to the development of rain with the potential for sub VFR
ceilings and vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Coastal trough shifted westward with axis
oriented between the 5SE and 27SE Wrightsville buoys,
stretching northeast, putting all but our far western waters
under gusty SE winds. Boundary will eventually weaken throughout
the day but continuing 15-20 knot southerly winds will continue.
Seas are up to 9 feet at Diamond Shoals and elevated seas will
continue for the rest of today in the stronger winds. Guidance
no longer keeps stronger winds over the Pamlico Sound for most
of this morning and thus moved up the expiration time of the SCA.

Long Term /Tue through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Still no changes to previous thinking with an
active weather pattern expected through the end of the week
which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong
winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. Winds will
shift N 15-25 kt with higher gusts behind cold front Wed into
Thur with large dangerous seas continuing above 6 ft through at
least Friday as yet another storm system moves through the
waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High temps for 12/10 Tuesday

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       79/2007  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  73/1986  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     79/2007  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  73/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        78/2007  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   79/2007  (KNCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST this morning for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL/MS
CLIMATE...MHX



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