Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
108
FXUS62 KMHX 241932
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Inland troughing and high pressure offshore will prevail through
the end of the week. A cold front will move through Saturday,
with high pressure building in from the north Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure
offshore, inland troughing and nearly stationary boundary
extending through the Mid-Atlantic and back through the deep
south region. Pattern remains nearly unchanged from the past few
days. Seabreeze driven showers and thunderstorms beginning to
blossom south of Hwy 70 and across SE NC early this afternoon,
near area of deeper moisture convergence and instability.
Convective development does seem to have been slowed with weak
subsidence and cloud cover behind this mornings convection.
Mesoanalysis shows ML CAPEs 1-2500 J/kg, bulk shear 10-20 kt and
steep low level lapse rates. Similar to the past several days,
the overall svr threat looks low, however this combination
appears supportive of pulse/multicell clusters capable of wet
microbursts for the next few hours. In addition to iso svr
threat, areas of locally heavy rain will again be possible with
PWATs around 2.25" posing the threat for localized flash
flooding. Similar to the past several nights, expect convection
to dissipate with loss of heating with potential for upstream
convection to push eastward and impacting the throughout the
night as another shortwave lifts out of the Gulf Coast region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Front will continue to approach from the west
Thursday, pushing into central NC during the afternoon, as mid
level trough dives into the Mid-Atlantic. Broad SW flow aloft,
increasing upper support and moisture support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, with greatest coverage
during the afternoon and evening. Similar to past several days,
iso strong storms are possible, though the main threat will be
heavy rain and potential for localized flash flooding. A Flood
Watch may be needed given the potential for 1-3", with locally
higher amts, coupled with how much rain has fallen over the past
several days. 12z HREF shows 50-80% chances of qpf amts greater
than 3" Thursday across much of the area. Slightly below normal
temps expected with cloud cover and precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wed...

Thursday night through Saturday...Thursday night and Friday
will be the most active part of the long term with things
finally beginning to calm down by Saturday. Incoming trough
which will be located to the north and west Thurs morning will
dive SE`wards into the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend eventually
cutting off near the Eastern Seaboard by Sunday. Stalling
boundary will set up along the Coastal Plain on Thurs providing
the focus for precip. With PWAT`s sitting at about 2+ inches,
forcing from the stalling boundary, and ample instability across
the area (generally 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE), scattered
shower and thunderstorm development is forecast Thurs morning
with more widespread activity forecast Thurs afternoon/evening.
Kept Likely to Categorical PoP`s in the forecast given
consistent signal for precip. As this front stalls, winds shear
will also be on the increase allowing for the potential of a few
stronger storms with strong wind gusts (40-50 mph), frequent
lightning, and heavy rain being the primary concern within the
strongest cells. The one limiting factor in all of this will be
the ongoing widespread cloud cover over ENC which may limit
storm organization. A second and stronger front then approaches
on Fri with this front tracking across the region late Friday
night into Saturday morning once again bringing a threat for
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Front finally moves
through the region Sat allowing for precip to end quickly from
north to south.

Through Fri there will be a threat for both river and flash
flooding. With PWAT`s hanging around 2+ inches, showers and
storms will have the potential to produce torrential downpours
through Friday night. This will likely result in several inches
of rainfall during this time period. NBM probs for 2+ inches of
rain over a 24 hr period Fri are about 30-40%. With FFG also
reduced across ENC given previous days rainfall, this gives
confidence that we will be at an increased risk for localized
Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas.

Sunday into midweek next week... Cut off upper low off the Eastern
Seaboard will gradually push NE`wards towards the Canadian Maritimes
early next week, while surface high builds in from the north on Sun
and pushes offshore on Mon. Deep layer N`rly flow from this upper
low will drive dry air and subsidence across the Carolinas from Sat
night through Monday allowing for precip potential to be
greatly diminished with a return to below climo PoPs. Yet another
front begins to approach from the west near midweek once again
increasing precip chances. N-NE`rly flow will keep temps below avg
to avg through the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Showers and thunderstorms beginning to
blossom south of Hwy 70 early this afternoon. Scattered coverage
expected through tonight, becoming more numerous Thursday. Brief
periods of sub-VFR possible through this evening, with increasing
chances of sub-VFR stratus developing overnight and persisting
into Thursday. IFR will be possible Thu morning. Where TSRA
occur, sub-VFR conditions can be expected, along with
gusty/erratic winds.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will persist into Saturday morning before a cold front sweeps
across ENC and greatly diminishes precip chances behind the
front Sat night. Occasional sub VFR conditions expected within
any shower or storm that impacts the area. In addition,
overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each
morning through Sat especially in areas that receive heavy
rainfall. A return to primarily VFR conditions is forecast from
Sun into early next week as high pressure settles into the area.
Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through Friday before
winds shift to a NE`rly direction at 5-10 kts behind a cold
front on Saturday and remain NE`rly into Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with seas
3-5 ft. Marginal SCA conditions possible this evening and
tonight, along with periods of showers and tstms. Little change
to the pattern through the period, as SW winds 10-20 kt
continue, strongest during the late afternoon and evenings. SW
wind gusts 20-25 kt may flirt briefly with SCA for a few hours
this evening (sounds and nearshore coastal waters), but still
looks a bit too marginal for headlines at this time. Showers
and thunderstorms may again impact area waters overnight and
Thursday, with potential for gusty winds and freq lightning.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...As we get into Thurs, 10-15 kt SW`ry winds
with gusts to 20 kts will be possible out ahead of a stalling
boundary. Winds become W`rly on Friday before shifting to a
NE`rly direction Fri night behind a S`ward moving cold front.
Winds will ease Fri night as well from N to S down to 5-15 kts
with NE`rly winds persisting through the remainder of the
weekend. 2-4 ft seas are forecast along our Coastal Waters Thurs
and seas will remain at these heights along our coastal waters
into this weekend. Daily chances for scattered showers and
storms will bring a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas
through Friday before precip chances quickly decrease from north
to south on Sat as the aforementioned cold front sweeps across
our waters and drier air builds in to the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 PM Wed...An unstable, and very moist, airmass will
remain in place through the end of the week, and will continue
to support periods of showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy
rain and flooding. It appears the flood/flash flood risk will
peak Thursday into Friday when the most widespread coverage of
thunderstorms is expected. Of note, eventually some of the
mainstem rivers will begin to respond to the ongoing wet
pattern, with some rivers potentially coming close to, or
exceeding, flood stage late week and/or this weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX