Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 090818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
418 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

A frontal boundary will be stalled offshore through Friday. High
pressure will build in from the east over the weekend. A cold
front will impact the area Monday and Monday night. Weak high
pressure briefly builds in Tuesday before the front could lift
back northward into our area mid-to-late week.


As of 4 AM Friday...Fog is currently plaguing most of the CWA
but should burn off after sunrise. Lowered overnight lows by a
couple of degrees again with this update.

Later today, one last lobe of vorticity will swing around the
bottom of the upper level low that`s been parked over the
northeastern CONUS for the past few days. This shortwave trough
could serve as enough forcing to kick off some showers and
possibly some isolated thunderstorms in our northern counties
later this afternoon, but guidance has trended drier over night,
so decreased PoPs to just slight chance. The biggest change to
the forecast with the past two updates has been the lowering of
dewpoints this afternoon. Hi-res guidance is in agreement of
dewpoints in the low 40s across the coastal plain, which further
increases confidence in a drier solution. Highs in the low 80s
inland and low/mid 70s along the coast.


As of 4 AM Friday...The upper level low in the northeastern
CONUS will begin to push offshore and allow for ridging to build
in over ENC late tonight and into Saturday morning. This will be
the start of much quieter conditions and a beautiful weekend.
Overnight Friday looks precip free, but with clear skies, light
winds, and possibly enough moisture in the lower atmosphere from
afternoon showers, another round of patchy fog is possible for
areas in the northern tier of the CWA. Another good radiative
cooling night will take lows into the mid 50s inland and low 60s
along the coast.


As of 3 AM Fri...Developing Bermuda high pressure over the
weekend brings more summerlike conditions. Then, a cold front
brings storms to the area Monday and Monday night. Tuesday is
more settled as the front remains south of the area, but
unsettled weather may return mid-week as the front could lift
back north over ENC.

Saturday and Sunday...Building upper ridging and high pressure
ridging in from the east will keep dry conditions and above
normal temps in place Saturday and Sunday. Overall, a welcomed
fair-weather, summerlike weekend.

Monday through Friday...Stacked low pressure deepens over the
Great Lakes early next week, with the associated cold front
bringing widespread showers and storms to ENC. Confidence is
increasing in the greatest coverage of showers and storms Monday
afternoon through evening/overnight as the primary band of pre-
frontal low level moisture traverses the area. Shear will be
marginal during this time, but ample instability and DCAPE
values expected to approach 700-900 J/kg will bring the
potential for some severe thunderstorms, with micro-bursts and
medium to large hail being the primary concerns, while lack of
updraft longevity is the primary limiting factor.

The cold front pushes south of the area Tuesday morning, with
waning moisture ahead of the more severe-conducive shear
profile that arrives with an upper shortwave during the day
Tuesday. Storm coverage Tuesday afternoon will be very limited,
but there may be some continued severe potential with any storms
that do form.

The front could lift back north into the area Wednesday or
Thursday, with an unsettled period possible, but significant
model variability justifies little more that low end chance POPs
generally following typical diurnal patters mid to late week at
this point.


SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 1:45 AM Friday...EWN and OAJ currently reporting MVFR VIS
due to fog, PGV and ISO prevailing VFR. Over the next few hours,
expecting drops to at least MVFR VIS for all TAF sites.
Guidance was most pessimistic about PGV, so have included a
brief drop to IFR VIS near sunrise. Any fog that does develop
should be shallow due to the much drier air above the surface,
so operational impacts should be minimal. After the dissipation
of any fog later this morning, prevailing VFR through the
remainder of the period with SKC or minimal high clouds. Have
continued to mention HZ due to smoke from the Canadian wildfires
through most of Friday.

LONG TERM /Sat through Wed/...
As of 345 Am Fri...VFR prevails through the weekend. An
approaching cold front could bring lowering ceilings and the
potential for flight restrictions Monday into Monday night, with
widespread showers and some thunderstorms also expected.
Conditions are expected to improve Tuesday as the front pushes
south of the area, but unsettled weather could return midweek.


SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 445 PM Thursday...Optimal boating conditions continue
through the period with variable winds 5-10 kt and 2-3 ft seas.

LONG TERM /Sat through Wed/...
As of 345 AM Fri...Light to moderate winds prevail over the
weekend as more seasonable Bermuda high pressure sets up. A cold
front approaching from the west will bring increasing S to SW
winds Sunday night through Monday, with breezy conditions and
SCAs potentially needed later Monday into Tuesday. Moderate to
breezy winds possible mid to late week as the front could lift
back toward the area. Very limited trade swell persists through
the period, with local seas mainly reflective of the local wind
strength and direction.




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