990
FXUS62 KMHX 291917
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
317 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tides are receding and have allowed the Coastal Flood Advisory
to expire.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and warm ahead of a backdoor cold front on Friday. A dry
backdoor cold front will push through Friday night bringing near
normal temps with continued dry conditions over the weekend.

2) Next rain chance arrives by mid next week with a low
pressure system moving out of the Deep South.

Marine: Elevated seas will cont the SCA conditions south of
Oregon through this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure remains centered over the Mid-
Atlantic with a coastal trough off the coast. Easterly low level
flow continues to advect moisture onshore bringing light
showers/sprinkles across eastern portions of the FA. High
pressure will ridge farther southward tonight allowing low
level flow to veer to Nly with moisture shunted swd ending the
threat of light showers.

Hts/thicknesses build further to round out the week and temps
climbing back to ~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to
near 80 inland to low 70s OBX on Friday. A reinforcing back door
dry cool front will push through Friday night bring temps down
closer to climo (low 70s most locales) over the weekend. Low
temps will also remain above normal through much of the period
with readings in the 50s. Normal lows for most of the FA are in
the 45-50 range now.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pres ridge finally begins to break down by
Tuesday and esp Wednesday as next potential low pres area and
cold front make it`s way into the region on active sub tropical
jet. Still timing differences on latest 29/00Z model suite, but
it appears this system could bring beneficial widespread rain to
the area. For now, due to timing differences, pops are in the
30-40% range at this time for the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low level moisture continues to advect onshore this afternoon
bringing areas of light rain and sprinkles with occasional brief
MVFR conditions at terminals, mainly coastal sites. Low level
flow become more northerly overnight which should allow showers
to remain offshore. Skies are expected to clear sufficently
overnight with winds becoming calm which should allow for good
radiational cooling conditions bringing a threat of low stratus
and fog tonight. Guidance remains mixed with extent of fog
development but HREF and REFS guidance show around 50-70%
probabilities for sub-VFR conditions, so trended more
pessimistic then a lot of other guidance. Any fog/stratus that
does develop should mix out mid to late morning Friday with pred
VFR conditions and light and variable winds.

Outlook (Fri night through Tuesday): Expect VFR conditions
expected over the weekend into early next week as a backdoor
cold front pushes through the area Friday night and strong high
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing E to NE winds around 10-20 kt across the waters
with gust to near 25 kt near the Gulf Stream, and seas around 4
to 7 ft. SCA continues through this evening south of Oregon
Inlet for elevated seas. Winds will gradually diminish tonight
becoming less than 15 kt on Friday.

Outlook (Fri night through Tuesday): A backdoor cold front will
push across the waters Friday night with SCA conditions likely
returning across the coastal waters Saturday into Sunday.
Conditions gradually improve early next week as high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/TL
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL