089
FXUS62 KMHX 122000
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
400 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low will slowly pull away through Monday, continuing
to produce coastal hazards. High pressure finally begins to
move back in by mid- week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 4 PM Sun...Coastal storm observed rotating in Onslow Bay
and only slowly drifting north as of mid afternoon. Most
guidance in agreement with forecasting the low to drift across
the ENC waters south of the Crystal Coast through tonight, then
pull eastward on Mon. This will keep breezy conditions in place
tonight, though all wind headlines have been dropped with gusts
expected to be in the 30-40 mph, then decreasing from there late
as the low continues to fill. Sct to numerous showers and light
rain/drizzle will cont across all of ENC as the low works in
tandem with upper shortwave swinging through tonight. Amounts
will be light, with totals of 0.25 - 0.50" through the
overnight. Temps will continue mild with lows in the upper 50s
interior to mid 60s OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 4 PM Sun...Aforementioned coastal low will slowly drift
eastwards and away from the ENC coastal waters through the day
Mon. Breezy conditions through the day as winds veer nwrly, with
gusts of 15-25 mph inland zones to 25-35 mph immediate coast. A
few showers/light rain/drizzle esp through the morning hours as
plentiful low level moisture will remain, but rain amounts
generally less than 0.10". Otherwise, ovc skies remain and cool
temps for the second week of Oct with highs in the 65-70 degree
range.



&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM Sun...Mostly dry, seasonable and breezy through
the week. Winds will grad back to the NNW by Monday and remain
so through most of the upcoming week. High pressure builds
across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday will start a period of dry
weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of
next week. Temps near climo, feeling more like mid-October with
highs falling into the 60s late week and lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 235 PM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs, vsbys and
   gusty winds through tonight

Widespread sub-VFR conditions across the terminals this
afternoon, mostly IFR. Sub-VFR conditions will persist through
the period, hovering between IFR and MVFR. Areas of light rain
will continue to impact the terminals through this eve, likely
becoming more light drizzle late. NE wind gusts 25-35 kt this
afternoon will subside a bit this evening, though still gusting
20-25 kt into Mon.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 235 PM Sun...Widespread sub-VFR conditions likely to
continue into Monday night, grad improving Tue. Gusty NE winds
are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming
northwesterly.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Sun...Low pres analyzed over Onslow Bay cont to
slowly weaken, and wind gradient is responding with all areas
below gales at this time. May cont to see ocnl gusts to 34+ kt
for a few hours, but widespread gusts have ended. Have replaced
all gales with SCA`s as a result.

Winds are SE across the Gulf Stream and have diminished to 10-20
kt, while NE winds across rest of the area 15-25 kt with gusts
to 30 kt this evening. As the low slowly moves east on Mon, all
of ENC waters become nwrly with speeds cont in the 15-25 kt
range with higher gusts nearing 30 kt.

Seas will cont on the high side, in the range of 8-14 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 235 PM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Coastal low and then a tight pressure gradient will keep
   hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least
   mid week

Conditions should continue to grad improve Monday night as the
low moves off to the east. Behind it, a tight pressure gradient
will persist for several days due to strong high pressure
building in from the west. Winds will be at least 20-30 kts out
of the NW through mid week, and could strengthen to Gale
strength at times. Seas will remain elevated and around the
range of 6-10 ft, highest north of Hatteras Inlet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 235 PM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain
in effect with a coastal low meandering off the NC coast. Water
levels have peaked, but will remain elevated into Mon.

The main concern will continue to be areas along oceanside
areas of OBX Dare county north of Cape Hatteras where the
combination of wind surge, high astronomical tides, and wave run
up will lead to the potential for major coastal flooding (2-4
ft AGL). This includes already vulnerable areas like Buxton,
Rodanthe, and Pea Island, but significant overwash impacts could
be seen north of Oregon Inlet as well. Portions of NC-12 are
currently closed from Oregon Inlet to Rodanthe, along with
portions in Ocracoke.

Moving over to the sounds and inland rivers, Coastal Flood
Warnings remain in effect for areas adjacent to the southern
Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, and Neuse and Bay Rivers. Here up to
2-4 ft AGL of inundation is possible, with several areas seeing
the higher end of that range due to persistent very strong winds
across the Pamlico Sound earlier today. Persistent gusty NE
winds will keep water levels elevated, slowly improving late
tonight and Mon. High water has lead to portions of NC-12
between Cedar Island and Atlantic to be closed. Along and
adjacent to Bogue Sound as well as around the Pamlico River, up
to 1-2 ft AGL of inundation is possible into Mon.

Coastal flooding will continue tonight and into tomorrow to a
lesser extent as strong winds (with changing wind directions)
persist due to a strong pressure gradient.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194-196.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-135-156-
     158-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/SGK
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX