415
FXUS62 KMLB 201055
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
655 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Tropical Depression Two (TD 2) is forecast to move north to
  northwest, and remain well west of the local area. The main
  impact to east central Florida will be bands of scattered gusty
  showers and storms through today.

-  Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, gusty
   winds up to 55 mph and heavy downpours. Minor, localized
   flooding will also be possible in some locations. Lower
   coverage of showers and storms into mid to late week.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through
  next week, with peak heat indices of 100-107F areawide.
  Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time
  outdoors!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Today-Tonight... Tropical Depression Two (TD 2) remains located in
the northeast Gulf between two surface highs, one over the Atlantic
and one of the western Gulf. TD 2 is forecast to slowly move north-
northwest through the day, towards the Florida Panhandle and
southern Alabama. Locally, southerly winds will persist with the
pressure gradient remaining tight across the area, with winds 10-15
mph with gusts 20-25 mph possible at times. While TD 2 will stay
well west of the local area, bands of gusty showers and lightning
storms will continue to move northward through east central Florida,
aided by the west and east coast sea breezes. There is a medium (40-
60 percent) chance for showers and storms this afternoon, with the
coverage being widely scattered. Highest coverage is forecast across
the interior, where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur.
Storm motion will be 20-25 mph and generally towards to the
northeast.

The environment supports convection this afternoon with forecast
soundings showing ample instability (MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg), steep
low-level lapse rates, sufficient shear (SFC-6km shear of ~ 15 KT),
and plenty of downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-900 J/kg). Main storm
hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 50-55
mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3". Some minor, localized,
flooding will also be possible in some locations in training rain
bands.

Any lingering shower and storm activity is forecast to dissipate or
move out of the area late evening, with mostly dry conditions
forecast each night. However, can not rule out a few showers
brushing the coast as showers continue across the Atlantic waters
through the overnight.  Near to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue with afternoon high temperatures in the low mid 90s
and peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows will
continue to be in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Thursday... Upper level ridging across the Plains and the
Deep South will stay in place through the time period. At the
surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will strengthen and
continue to build across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf.
This will allow TD 2 to move westward along the northern Gulf Coast
and towards Texas through late week, away from east central Florida.
Locally, drier air will move into the area on Tuesday, with forecast
PW values ranging from 1.5-1.7", which will result in reduced rain
chances through the period. Lower than normal rain chances are
forecast, with a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain and lightning
storms each day. Southerly flow will persist through the period,
with the pressure gradient relaxing on Tuesday, resulting in winds
slackening. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon,
turning the winds onshore (east to southeast) behind the sea breeze.
A slight warming trend through mid week, with afternoon highs in the
mid 90s, even nearing the upper 90s at times. These temperatures
combined with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-
107F. A Heat Advisory may be needed, will continue to monitor.

Friday-Sunday...  Upper level high pressure over the Plains and the
Deep South will remain in place as a trough over the Midwest shifts
eastward towards the Atlantic coast through Sunday. At the surface,
the Atlantic high pressure will shift southward through the weekend
as a low pressure system pushes off the coast of the Carolinas. An
associated boundary will dig through the Deep South into late week
and into northern Florida before stalling over the weekend. Locally,
moisture will increase over the area from the stalled boundary.
However, there remains some uncertainty to how much moisture will
push into Florida, and will depend on how far south the boundary
makes it and where it stalls. For now have a low (20-30 percent)
chance for rain and storms on Friday and a low to medium (20-50
percent) chance on the weekend. The pressure gradient will remain
relaxed over the area through the weekend, with south to southeast
winds on Friday turning south to southwest over the weekend. The
east coast sea breeze will form each day, backing the winds onshore
(east to southeast) each afternoon. Hot temperatures will continue,
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s, with Saturday being the
warmest day of the weekend. Coupled with high humidity, peak heat
indices will be in the above 100 F. Overnight lows will be in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Today-Friday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions through this
evening. Tropical Depression Two (TD 2) remains located in the
northeast Gulf between two surface highs, one over the Atlantic and
one of the western Gulf. TD 2 is forecast to slowly move north-
northwest, away from the local area, through mid week. Southerly
winds will persist with the pressure gradient remaining tight over
the local area through today. The pressure gradient relaxes on
Tuesday, the winds slackening into mid to late week. Winds 15-20 KT
today will increase to around 20 KT in the offshore waters of
Volusia and Brevard tonight. Small craft should exercise caution in
all the waters today. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for
those waters starting at 03Z Tuesday and going through 12Z Tuesday.
Seas 2 to 3 feet this morning will increase in response to the winds
to 2 to 4 ft by this afternoon. Southerly winds will persist through
late week, with speeds generally 10-15 knots. Seas will remain
between 2 to 4 feet through early next week, before slowly subsiding
to 2-3 feet on Wednesday through Friday. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to be possible, primarily during the late
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Light S winds pick up after 13Z at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots possible through this afternoon. Bands of showers and storms
are forecast to develop after 17Z, with VCTS at all terminals.
PROB30s continue between 18-24Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to
TSRA. Shower and storm activity is forecast to diminish into the
late evening and overnight hours, with light winds and mostly dry
conditions anticipated after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  77  93  76 /  40  20  20  10
MCO  94  77  95  77 /  50  20  20  10
MLB  92  78  92  77 /  50  20  20  10
VRB  93  76  93  76 /  50  20  20  10
LEE  92  78  93  77 /  50  20  30  10
SFB  94  77  95  77 /  50  20  20  10
ORL  93  78  95  77 /  50  20  20  10
FPR  93  76  93  75 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen