158
FXUS62 KMLB 222253
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
653 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Rough surf and a high risk for numerous, strong, life-
  threatening rip currents continue at area beaches. Residents and
  visitors should use caution at the beach and avoid entering the
  water!

- Shower chances along the Treasure Coast through tonight, with
  locally heavy rainfall from repeated rounds across coastal St.
  Lucie/Martin counties possible. Rain chances ramp up elsewhere
  along the coast again this weekend.

- Strong northeast winds forecast to return this weekend and early
  next week; very windy with dangerous surf and boating
  conditions, a risk for minor to moderate coastal flooding and
  additional beach erosion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Rest of Today-Friday...High pressure over the Great Lakes builds
eastward through the end of the work week, nudging an upper level
trough through the Florida peninsula. Onshore flow persists through
the period, aided by departing Subtropical Storm Josephine and a
stalled front over the northern Caribbean. A tightening pressure
gradient will lead to increasingly breezy conditions, with NE winds
10-15 mph this afternoon becoming 15-20 mph Friday. Widespread gusts
20-25 mph are forecast Friday afternoon, occasionally up to 30 mph
along the coast. Onshore flow will keep high temperatures near
normal, in the lower 80s. However, Atlantic waters in the 70s will
keep overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s along the coast,
while inland temperatures dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Early morning showers along the Treasure Coast have diminished by
early afternoon. Will likely see drier conditions prevail through
the daytime hours, though can`t rule out a shower or two (20%)
moving onshore into that area through sundown. Overall, available
moisture remains relatively low compared to the last several weeks
(PWATs 1.2" or less). However, with upper level support from the
trough, CAMs suggest scattered showers developing overnight
offshore. Rain chances increase northward into Friday night, with
the highest chances remaining along the coast (30-50%). Inland areas
look to stay mostly dry. The thunder threat appears low (below 20%)
thanks to subsidence in the mid-levels. Will need to monitor the
threat for training bands of showers, leading to minor flooding.
Portions of the Treasure Coast remain in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for
excessive rainfall.

Saturday-Wednesday...High pressure strengthens over the eastern
half of the US, well north of the Florida peninsula, through early
next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure looks to develop
over the Atlantic NE of the Bahamas along the stalled frontal
boundary south of the state. The pressure gradient will become
increasingly tight between these two features, enhancing already
breezy onshore flow, beginning this weekend. NE winds 15-20 mph,
with gusts 30-40 mph, on Saturday continue to increase Sunday and
into Monday, becoming 20-25 mph, with gusts 35-45 mph. The highest
gusts are forecast along the coast, where Wind Advisories appear
likely. Breezy to windy low looks to linger into mid-week next
week, though Sunday and Monday appear to be the windiest days.

Confidence is increasing that this prolonged period of strong
onshore flow will coincide with the highest set of king tides for
the year, meaning that coastal impacts will be exacerbated
compared to the onshore flow event last weekend. Dangerous beach
and boating conditions are forecast, with minor to moderate
coastal flooding around high tide, moderate to locally major beach
erosion, and high, pounding surf up to 12-15 ft. Residents and
visitors are urged to stay out of the water and to even use
caution on the beach itself, especially near periods of high tide.

Rain chances also look to increase this weekend, as moisture
rebounds (PWATs return to 1.5"+). Multiple rounds of gusty,
onshore moving showers are expected. Thus, the highest chances (up
to 80% on Sunday) are forecast for coastal areas, though
occasionally showers may persist into inland locations. Areas that
see multiple rounds of rainfall or any training bands could see
increased flooding concerns. At this time, the Treasure Coast
looks to be the greatest threat area, which is highlighted under a
Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall each day. High
temperatures remain near normal, in the lower 80s, with warmer
overnight lows in the lower 70s along the coast and mid to upper
60s inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through the end
of the work week, as high pressure remains north of the local
area. NE winds increase to 15-20 kts at times, while seas linger
up to 7-8ft in the Gulf Stream. High pressure strengthens this
weekend into early next week, tightening the pressure gradient
between it and developing low pressure NE of the Bahamas.
Dangerous boating conditions expected by Saturday afternoon, with
gale to near gale force gusts through at least Monday. Seas
rapidly build to 12-15 ft. Gale Watches/Warnings look likely by
Saturday. In addition to building winds and seas, increasing
coverage of showers, with a few embedded lightning storms, is
forecast. The highest coverage looks to be along the Treasure
Coast, with showers moving onshore and locally enhancing already
strong winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 652 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with north-
northeasterly flow. Mostly dry weather is expected, however, isolated
showers near the Treasure Coast TAF sites cannot be ruled out.
Expect north-northeast winds at 6kts-12kts with gusts up to
15kts-20kts to weaken tonight before increasing after 15Z FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  78  67  79 /   0  10  20  70
MCO  61  79  65  81 /   0  20   0  20
MLB  68  81  70  82 /   0  20  20  40
VRB  68  83  69  83 /  10  40  20  40
LEE  59  79  62  80 /   0  10   0  20
SFB  61  80  64  81 /   0  10  10  40
ORL  61  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  20
FPR  67  82  69  83 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Fehling