313
FXUS62 KMLB 291936
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
236 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

- A HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents at all central Florida
  Atlantic beaches continues. Entering the surf is not advised!

- Tonight into Tuesday, a strong cold front will move across the
  peninsula, bringing below normal temperatures areawide into the
  New Year.

- A Freeze Watch has been issued for Lake and Inland Volusia
  counties for Wednesday morning, when wind chill values areawide
  are forecast to reach the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Now-Tonight...A picture-perfect afternoon with little to no cloud
cover has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low
80s. It is a bit breezy at times with gusts nearing 20 mph,
especially at the coast. Our focus is now turning toward the
northwest as a potent cold front moves into north Florida,
accompanied by increased cloud cover and gusty northwest winds.
While clouds will gradually overspread the area from north to
south ahead of the front, the FROPA itself looks to begin after
dark, north of I-4. Colder and drier air is forecast to surge
southward with the front clearing the area before sunrise Tuesday.
Along the front, the chance of a light shower or sprinkle remains
generally 10-15 percent and focused closer to the coast. However,
measurable rainfall is unlikely tonight.

Temperatures nosedive after midnight, reaching the 40s and 50s by
daybreak tomorrow. With breezy to gusty northwest winds in play,
wind chill values are forecast to range widely from north to south
early Tuesday. Wind chills near freezing (low/mid 30s) are
forecast along and north of I-4, followed by the upper 30s to mid
40s across central portions of the area. Treasure Coast locations
will likely see values range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night...Surface high pressure gradually fills in
behind the cold front on Tuesday, expanding southeast from the
ArkLaTex to the central Gulf Coast. Tuesday will remain breezy at
times as NW 850mb flow continues to usher in a drier and cooler
airmass. While there will be some mid-high level clouds, we should
see a good deal of sunshine as well. Regardless, temperatures will
struggle to reach the upper 50s north of Orlando/Cape Canaveral,
with highs across the southern half of ECFL in the low to mid
60s.

Skies clear out Tuesday night, setting the stage for a very
efficient cooldown into early Wednesday. Min-Temp EFI values are
moderately negative and HREF probabilities of temperatures 32
degrees or less range from 20-50% (or locally higher) across
interior ECFL Wednesday morning. This puts the forecast in
perspective, with Wednesday morning being the coldest morning of
the next seven days. Wind chill values sink into the mid 20s to
mid 30s, especially across inland locations. With the potential
for near or sub-freezing temperatures for a couple hours or more
in Lake and inland Volusia counties, a Freeze Watch has been
issued there for Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, a Cold Weather
Advisory will likely be needed in future forecasts to account for
sub-30 degree wind chills affecting a sizable portion of east-
central Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday-Monday (modified previous)...Persistent W/NW flow aloft
will allow occasional mid-level troughs to traverse the region,
as well as keep "lower mid-level heights" over the area. The much
cooler/drier airmass will come with PWATs well under an inch which
will keep PoPs absent from the forecast at least into early Sat.
At the surface, weak high pressure continues to transition across
the Deep South/Gulf to the FL peninsula. Another cold front may
push through late next weekend, but this far out it appears it
will be on a weakening trend by the time it makes it into central
FL. For now, we carry a small PoP (~20-30%) on Sat/Sat night.
Otherwise, the extended is mostly dry. Skies look to remain MClear
to PCloudy for much of the extended.

High temps for Wed nearly mirror those on Tue - perhaps a couple
degrees cooler, generally in the 60s Thu, U60s to L70s on Fri, and
a return into the 70s as we continue the warming trend Sat-Mon.

Winds remain forecast around 5 mph for Wed/Thu/Fri nights, so
wind chills won`t be as great a concern as they were Tue night
into Wed. However, mins Wed/Thu nights will still find their way
down into the M-U30s to around 40F across much of the interior and
perhaps coastal Volusia with L-M40s along the immediate coastline
southward. At least some patchy frost cannot be ruled out
Thursday morning, especially over the interior. Mins Fri night
into Sat morning generally in the 40s to L50s areawide. A slow
warming trend Sat/Sun overnight with generally 50s for lows
areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Deteoriating boating conditions are forecast tonight into Tuesday
as a gusty northwest wind builds seas behind a strong cold front.
Speeds of 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt are anticipated late
tonight through mid morning Tuesday, particularly north of
Sebastian Inlet. This will build seas to 4-7 ft nearshore and 6-9
ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in place, beginning at 7 PM
for the Volusia and offshore Brevard waters, expanding southward
in time to include all of the local Atlantic by 1 AM Tuesday. Poor
to hazardous seas linger through Tuesday evening before improving
mid to late week.

Isolated to scattered showers are possible along tonight`s cold
front as it passes from north to south over the local waters. Most
of the shower activity will drift south of the Treasure Coast
offshore waters by mid morning Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1221 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Becoming gusty this afternoon as winds veer WSW from 10-20 mph
ahead of a cold front. VFR conds until front approaches tonight
from north to south. Along the front, a brief period of MVFR CIGs
is likely (60% +), according to hi-res guidance. Timing for MCO
is around 3-5Z, as late as 7-10Z at SUA. VFR returns with brisk NW
winds 8-15 KT on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

A strong cold front is set to move through tonight into early
Tuesday. Breezy to gusty conditions on Tuesday, combined with low
relative humidity, will lead to heightened fire sensitivity
across east-central Florida. Winds at or below 10 mph for the
remainder of the week will limit the overall fire sensitivity, but
humidity values are forecast to remain low (near or below 30
percent) through at least Thursday. Temperatures and overall
moisture gradually recover late week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  58  34  59 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  45  60  37  59 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  47  62  37  62 /  20   0   0   0
VRB  50  64  37  63 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  41  58  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  44  59  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  45  59  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  65  36  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for FLZ041-044-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil