637
FXUS62 KMLB 052330
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

- Increasingly hot and dry through midweek, with highs in the low
  to mid 90s nearing daily record values both Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Rain chances begin to rise this weekend as a front nears and
  stalls just north of the area, with highs remaining above
  normal.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions across the interior through
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Ridging off of the mid-Atlantic coast
maintains an axis across the area today. Mostly dry, with earlier
showers along the Treasure Coast diminishing this afternoon. CAMs
continue to suggest a few showers can`t be ruled out near
Okeechobee County late this afternoon, though any convection would
need to overcome dry air, with a modest cu field as of around 2
PM. Easterly winds veer southeasterly overnight, becoming light.
Highs in the 80s this afternoon will fall into the mid to upper
60s late tonight.

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure off of the Northeast US coast
shifts slowly seaward through mid-week, dragging the ridge axis
southward through the Florida peninsula. Hot and dry conditions
prevail, with no rainfall expected. Southeasterly winds 5-10 mph
increase to 10-15 mph along the coast behind the sea breeze
Wednesday afternoon. Then, winds veer southwesterly on the
northern periphery of the ridge axis Thursday, increasing to 10-15
mph ahead of an approaching front. Ample sunshine and a weak or
pinned sea breeze will allow for hot, near-record temperatures to
overspread the area. Highs in the lower to mid-90s west of I-95
Wednesday spread eastward Thursday, with some upper 90s possible
over the interior. See the Climate Section for record information.
A Moderate HeatRisk is forecast area-wide on Thursday. Residents
and visitors sensitive to heat should take precautions. Remember,
NEVER leave children or pets in cars for any period of time. Hot,
dry, and breezy conditions will make for very sensitive fire
weather conditions Thursday afternoon.

Friday-Tuesday...As high pressure moves farther into the Atlantic,
models are in generally good agreement that a weak front will move
into north Florida on Friday. The front then looks to stall near to
just north of the local forecast area this weekend, before
progressing slowly southward early next week. There are some
discrepancies in the amount of available moisture through the
period. However, the bottom line is that the front looks to provide
enough moisture for scattered showers and storms (PoPs 30-50%) and
encourage a daily seabreeze pattern over the eastern half of the
peninsula Saturday through Tuesday, leading to mainly afternoon and
evening convection. Temperatures remain above normal across Central
Florida, ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s and even some mid 90s
lingering across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

High pressure off of the Mid-Atlantic coast today drifts seaward
through mid-week, dragging a ridge axis southward across the local
waters. Generally dry conditions prevail, with light showers along
the Treasure Coast early this afternoon diminishing over the next
couple of hours. E winds today veer SE Wednesday, then SW
Thursday, as the axis moves southward. Regardless, winds along the
coast are forecast to become S/SE each afternoon around 10-15 kts
as the sea breeze develops. Seas 2-3 ft.

A weak cold front is forecast to move into north Florida on
Friday, where it will stall through the weekend. Offshore flow and
daily sea breezes are expected to continue. Increasing moisture
will see the return of scattered showers and storms this weekend,
mainly concentrated along the sea breeze (near the coast) in the
afternoons. Winds are forecast to remain 15 kts or less through
Sunday. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Mainly VFR, and overnight fog chances remain too low to mention.
Easterly flow around 10 kts early this evening is forecast to
subside 5 kts or less into tonight. Light winds shift southeast to
south at most sites early Wednesday, but should remain out of the
east along the coast from MLB southward. Winds increase 10-12 kts
along the coast as the sea breeze develops Wednesday afternoon.
Dry conditions persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Mostly dry today, with just a few isolated showers along the
southern Treasure Coast and perhaps over Okeechobee County late this
afternoon. Easterly winds 10-15 mph generally east of Orlando are
fortunately forecast where min RH remains above 45%. Inland, winds
will be lighter, but min RH falls to 35-40%. Good to very good
dispersion this afternoon.

High pressure lingers over the area through Thursday, leading to
increasingly warm and fire sensitive conditions. Onshore flow 5-10
mph Wednesday increases to 10-15 mph along the coast in the
afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. With lighter onshore flow
compared to today, min RH 35-45% expands to all areas but the
coastal communities, as highs reach the lower to mid-90s west of I-
95. Southwesterly flow Thursday will further warm temperatures into
the 90s area-wide. Winds 10-15 mph will need to be monitored for
Fire Weather Watches/Red Flag Warnings, as min RH falls to 30-40%
for most areas. Good dispersion Wednesday becomes very good to
excellent Thursday, which may lead to control issues.

A front stalls north of the local area this weekend, maintaining
southwesterly flow and above normal temperatures. While increasing
moister will help to keep min RH above critical levels, fire
weather conditions will remain sensitive. Scattered showers and
storms will be possible this weekend and into early next week and
any lightning strikes could lead to new fire starts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites Wednesday, May 6th
and Thursday, May 7th:

Site           May 6        May 7
Daytona      95 (1955)    93 (1952)
Leesburg     93 (2007)    94 (1984)
Sanford      95 (1952)    94 (2009)
Orlando      98 (1922)    98 (1915)
Melbourne    94 (2022)    91 (1980)
Vero Beach   95 (2022)    93 (1947)
Fort Pierce  95 (2022)    95 (1906)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  89  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  68  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  71  86  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  69  86  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  67  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  66  93  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  68  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  86  69  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Law