861
FXUS62 KMLB 302349
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
749 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- High coverage of showers and storms through the weekend; A
  Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists through at least
  Friday with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall forecast

- The potential exists for a few strong storms, mainly in the
  afternoons with wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent to excessive
  lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall

- Warm and muggy conditions continue, with highs in the lower 90s
  and heat indices up to 100-105 degrees

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Currently-Friday... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered to
numerous east moving showers and lightning storms at about 20mph
with most of the showers and lightning storms south of the
Orlando Metro; Much of the activity has pushed offshore of the
Brevard and Indian River county coasts. GOES-16 satellite imagery
and local observations indicate cloudy skies with stratocumulus
and cirrus clouds across east central Florida. Analysis charts
show a stationary boundary over the deep south with a shortwave
over northern Florida, in addition to, northern east central
Florida. The Atlantic ridge axis is well to the east-southeast of
east central Florida over the Atlantic waters. Temperatures are
are rain cooled across east central Florida and are currently in
the mid 70s to mid 80s. Dew points are in the low to upper 70s.
Gradient winds are generally from the WSW at 10-15mph with gusts
to 20-25mph.

Rain chances are expected to diminish after around 4PM with mostly
dry conditions into the evening hours. Model guidance has varied
quite a bit once again for rain chances and the timing of showers
and lightning storms into tomorrow. However, I`ve adjusted the
forecast towards the rain chances and timing that is closer to
what we had today since the stationary boundary is expected to
remain over the southern US, as well as the shortwave over
northern Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Mostly dry
weather is forecast overnight, with rain chances increasing into
the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. With that said,
scattered to numerous (60-70% chance) east- southeast moving
showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop from
northwest to southeast across east central Florida into the late
morning and afternoon hours. Rain chances lower into the evening
hours and overnight. MLCAPE up to 1,000-3,600 J/kg, 0-6km shear up
to 20-40kts, and PVA traversing east central Florida will support
the potential for isolated to scattered strong storms capable of
producing wind gusts up to 50mph, frequent to excessive lightning,
and heavy rainfall (1-3" with a 5% chance of totals up to 4-5").
A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Exists for much of east
central Florida (5% chance). Near to below normal highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s are forecast with heat index values up to
100F-105F degrees, as well as lows in the low to mid 70s are
forecast. He

Saturday-Sunday... The active weather pattern is expected to
continue through the weekend with a shortwave over the deep south
and eastern Gulf. Rain chances (70-80%) are expected to remain
high and above normal through the weekend with PWATS in excess of
2.0" each day. Flow is expected to veer southerly and gradually
weaken at around 10mph with gusts to 15mph which will allow a weak
east coast sea breeze to develop mainly south of Cape Canaveral
on Sunday. Scattered to widespread showers and lightning storms
are forecast into each afternoon and evening with the highest rain
chances north of the Treasure Coast on Saturday and from Cape
Canaveral southwards on Sunday. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s are forecast.

Monday-Wednesday... Near normal rain chances (generally 40-70%
chance) are expected into next week with the Atlantic ridge axis
forecast to build over southern Florida. Winds are forecast to
back SSW on Monday before backing easterly on Wednesday. The east
coast sea breeze is forecast strengthen through midweek and back
more easterly through Wednesday. Scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast to develop each afternoon which will be
capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall.
Temperatures are expected to warm slightly with highs in the low
90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. A Moderate HeatRisk is
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Currently-Tonight... Choppy to hazardous boating conditions are
expected to gradually improve overnight. Scattered offshore moving
showers and lightning storms are forecast through this evening.
The potential exists for isolated storms capable of wind gusts in
excess of 34kts. SW winds at 6-12kts nearshore and 10-15kts over
the offshore Treasure Coast, in addition to 15-20kts over the
Volusia to Brevard offshore waters are forecast. Seas up to 1-2ft
nearshore and up to 1-3ft offshore are forecast. Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution for the offshore (20-60nm) Volusia to
Brevard county waters.

Friday-Monday (modified previous discussion)... Favorable boating
conditions are expected. High coverage of showers and storms
persists through the weekend with activity moving eastward and
offshore, especially in the afternoons. However, the potential
exists for showers and storms in the overnight hours as well
Despite this, boating conditions are expected to improve as SW
flow slackens to 15 kts or less through Saturday. Then, the
Atlantic ridge axis builds over southern Florida Sunday into
Monday which will back winds SSE. Shower and storm coverage
returns to near normal by Monday. Seas to 1-3 ft are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Lingering debris rain moving into KDAB may still produce
occasional lightning through 01Z. Otherwise, as this activity
weakens it should remain mostly dry this evening. Some model
guidance tries to still develop isolated/scattered showers and
possibly a storm or two overnight with moist airmass in place, but
greatest potential for convective redevelopment will be into mid
morning through the afternoon tomorrow. Another round of scattered
to numerous showers and storms will form and push eastward and
offshore Friday. Have limited storm mention to VCTS (starting
around 15-17Z) at this time as confidence on exact timing of tempo
IFR/MVFR impacts from this activity remains low. However, tempo
groups for storms will likely need to be added in future TAF
updates. W/SW winds around 5-10 knots generally forecast outside
of storms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  89 /  50  70  50  80
MCO  75  90  75  90 /  40  70  50  80
MLB  75  90  75  90 /  30  70  40  80
VRB  73  90  73  90 /  10  70  40  70
LEE  75  89  75  88 /  40  70  60  80
SFB  75  90  75  90 /  40  70  50  80
ORL  76  90  76  90 /  40  70  50  80
FPR  73  90  73  90 /  10  70  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich