634
FXUS62 KMLB 310720
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
320 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

- Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically
  enhance shower and storm coverage through mid week.

- A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly
  in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms.

- Developing onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk for rip
  currents at area beaches; surf conditions are expected to
  deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral
  northward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025
An anomalous trough over the eastern CONUS persists, maintaining
generally westerly flow aloft across the state. At the surface, a
nearly stationary front stretches across the northern Gulf Coast
into the western Atlantic. Atmospheric moisture remains plentiful
to the south of this boundary, with GOES derived precipitable
water indicating 1.9 - 2.1" across the peninsula (between the 75th
and 90th percentile for this time of year).

Some subtle changes to the local pattern are anticipated today as
shortwave energy aloft induces weak low pressure over the
Atlantic. Developing north/northeast flow on the lows` backside
will act to push the stalled front a bit further south. Meanwhile,
continued west winds aloft will favor the eastern half of the
peninsula for diurnally-driven convection this afternoon and
evening.

Convective allowing models are offering some hints into storm
evolution today, though uncertainty is higher than usual given the
anomalous pattern. Guidance suggests initial scattered nocturnal
development over the eastern Gulf will move onshore the Nature
Coast later this morning. From there, activity is expected to
translate toward central and southern portions of the forecast
area (from about Kissimmee to Melbourne south), increasing in
coverage as it does so. Across northern areas, onshore flow
developing within north to northeast surface flow should trigger
scattered showers and storms separately. Attempted to show a
slight variation to the PoP distribution today with 55 - 60%
across the north, increasing to 70% across southern areas.

As activity pushes offshore the Treasure Coast this evening,
we`ll need to be on the lookout for onshore-moving showers and
isolated storms from around Cape Canaveral northward overnight.

Monday...The surface boundary will have likely shifted a bit
further south over the area, closer to Lake Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast. This should induce onshore flow across most of the
forecast area despite continued westerly flow aloft courtesy of
the persistent eastern U.S. trough. Above normal rain chances are
maintained, with morning coastal showers and storms spreading
inland through the day. Of note, beach conditions are expected to
become increasingly poor on the holiday given the increasing
onshore flow, particularly north of Cape Canaveral. A building
swell will likely induce a high risk for rip currents in these
areas.

Tuesday-Saturday...Both deterministic and ensemble guidance
remain in good agreement through the end of the week, with an
unusually strong signal for a reinforcing trough over the eastern
CONUS. In fact, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles show standardized
height anomalies of -3 to -4 sigma centered over the midwest
Thursday and Friday. Weak perturbations embedded within the base
of the trough will translate across the Gulf from time to time
through at least mid week, continuing the trend of unsettled
conditions. While convective chances remain highest in the
afternoon and evening, precip cannot be ruled out during the
overnight given onshore flow and an active pattern aloft.

Late in the week, as the trough axis shifts over the eastern
seaboard, models hint at some modest drying aloft across our
northern zones. While any hints of a cool down are likely to
remain to our north (its still too early to talk cold fronts), a
sharp north-to-south precip gradient is likely to occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025
Today...A weak surface boundary will settle southward over the
local waters today, inducing north to northeast flow over the
Volusia waters. Here, a small swell of of up to 3 - 4 feet will
develop toward sunset. Mariners should be alert for thunderstorms
capable of producing gusty winds, with a better chance for
offshore-movings storms south of Cape Canaveral.

Monday-Wednesday...Unsettled conditions continue as deep moisture
and a stationary boundary remain parked over the local waters -
leading to above normal chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast given strengthening
northeast winds, up to 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral. Seas
building to 3 - 5 feet (up to 6 feet offshore Volusia). Conditions
improve some Wednesday as the surface boundary lifts back to the
north and our local gradient weakens.

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Weak frontal boundary across the area continues to pull deep
moisture into central FL. Continued mainly dry overnight, but will
watch for some morning showers across the I-4 corridor pushing in
from the west. For this potential, continue to carry VCSH at
LEE/MCO/ISM around 14Z. With predominant WRLY flow expect
additional activity across WCFL to spread eastward Sun aftn, with
VCTS prevailing by around 17-18Z. With increasing confidence for
above normal PoPs, TEMPOs included at most sites. An overall
unsettled weather pattern may keep SHRA/TSRA into the evening
hours and additional TEMPOs may be necessary. Continued mainly
VFR, with tempo MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Light winds will
become NWRLY Sun morning as trough slides southward. Winds
continue to veer N/NE (aftn-early eve) from near KMLB-KISM
northward. Will need to monitor for "low-topped" showery precip
along the coast Sun evening (perhaps overnight).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  75  85  75 /  60  50  70  50
MCO  90  75  87  74 /  60  40  60  20
MLB  89  75  87  76 /  60  50  70  40
VRB  90  72  88  75 /  70  60  70  40
LEE  86  74  87  73 /  60  30  60  20
SFB  88  74  87  74 /  60  40  70  30
ORL  89  74  87  75 /  60  40  60  20
FPR  91  71  88  73 /  70  60  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ulrich
AVIATION...Sedlock