736
FXUS62 KMLB 030758
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
358 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- Cooler today behind a cold front but lingering showers this
  morning with scattered showers and a few storms along the
  Treasure Coast.

- Another round of hot temperatures expected by the middle of the
  week. Widespread low to mid 90s are forecast on Wednesday over
  the interior, expanding to all areas by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Today...Cold front continues to push southward across central FL
early this morning but isolated showers will linger even north of
the front until drier air begins to filter in later this morning.
A higher coverage of showers and even a storm or two will push
east across southern sections early this morning interacting with
the southward-moving cold front. A north wind shift will
accompany frontal passage, reaching Martin county a little after
sunrise. Additional scattered showers and elevated convection is
forecast to redevelop this afternoon across portions of the
Treasure coast but strong/severe storms are not forecast.
Decreasing clouds across northern sections but remaining mostly
cloudy to overcast across the south. Noticeably cooler today with
highs in the upper 70s coast (mid 70s Volusia coast) and near
80/lower 80s over the north interior where there will be better
sfc heating.

Mon-Sat...Zonal flow aloft will continue the first half of the
week with a ridge nosing in from the SW Gulf mid week. This ridge
will get flattened by a long wave trough rotating across the
eastern CONUS late week. At the surface, high pressure over the
western Atlc Mon will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis
gradually settling south and reaching central FL Wed. A cold front
will push into the deep South Thu and suppress the ridge axis
south of the area, setting up a south to southwest wind flow
across the area. Model guidance is backing off on a clean frontal
passage late week and instead showing a weakening front stalling
over north/central FL late week. It is early May after all.
Moisture along the front looks rather meager so rain chances are
currently low but should be sufficient for isolated to scattered
showers/storms Fri/Sat.

There will be a steady warm-up early this week with afternoon
highs reaching the the low to mid 90s by Wed across the interior,
expanding to all of the area Thu as offshore flow dominates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Today...Cold front currently pushing south across the area will
push south of the local Atlc waters later this morning. A surge
of north winds near 20 knots and gusty immediately behind the
front will briefly produce Small Craft Advisory conditions but
speeds are forecast to settle 15-20 knots and veer NE during the
day so will handle with a Caution headline for most marine zones.
Seas will build 4-5 FT nearshore and 6 FT in the Gulf Stream so a
poor boating day for sure. Scattered showers and storms mainly
south of Sebastian Inlet.

High pressure centered off the NC coast Monday will push seaward
with a trailing ridge axis north of the area. This ridge axis will
settle southward reaching central FL and adjacent waters Wed then
south of the area Thu. Onshore (ENE) flow Mon near 15 knots will
veer East Tue and SE Wed with speeds near 10 knots except 10-14
knots near the coast enhanced by the aftn sea breeze. Winds become
S/SW early Thu with a SE wind shift near 15 knots in the aftn
assocd with the sea breeze.

Seas remain 5-6 FT in the Gulf Stream Mon and 4-5 FT nearshore. As
winds veer more east and speeds decrease slightly (and we lose
the north wind component), seas will subside more quickly, 3-4 ft
area wide Tue and 2-3 FT Wed and Thu. Isolated to scattered
showers south of the Cape Mon and Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

CIGs have dropped to MVFR with TEMPO IFR near the weakening frontal
boundary along and north of the I-4 corridor, including KMCO, and
approaching KTIX-KMLB. -RA also occurring near the front
producing occasional MVFR VIS reductions. Boundary will slowly sag
south through the night reaching KVRB-KSUA through 09Z, and stall
just south. CIGs should improve to VFR from KMCO-KTIX north by
11Z, but are likely to linger at KVRB-KSUA through the day. KMLB
right on the line and most likely to go VFR by around 14Z, but
CIGs may occasionally drop to MVFR through the day. -SHRA will
continue INVOF KVRB-KSUA through the day as well, with mainly dry
conditions at the rest of the ECFL terminals. Winds W 5-10 kts
shift NNW behind the front through the early morning, then shift
NE and increase a bit to 8-13 kts with gusts to around 20 kts in
the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

A cold front will push south of central FL early this morning and
produce a wind shift out of the north, turning northeast during the
day. This change in wind direction will bring a cooler airmass with
breezy/gusty conditions especially along the coast, up to 25 mph.
Drier air will filter into central Florida but scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms will linger across Okeechobee/Treasure
coast today into this evening. On Monday, drier air penetrates
farther south limiting rain chances in the form of isolated coastal
showers along the Treasure coast. Min RH values will remain above
critical levels for the most part, dropping near 35% across Lake
county both afternoons. Dispersion values will be Very Good both
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  63  80  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  80  64  83  65 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  78  68  80  69 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  78  67  80  68 /  40  30  20  10
LEE  81  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  62  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  81  64  84  65 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  78  67  80  67 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley