543
FXUS62 KMLB 031929
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
229 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern Brevard
  County and the Treasure Coast remain extremely sensitive to any
  additional rainfall. Avoid flooded roads, and do not walk or
  wade through floodwater!

- Rain chances decrease to 20-30% tonight into Wednesday, with
  most areas rain-free from Thursday through the weekend.

- Hazardous beach conditions persist through midweek, with a high
  risk of life-threatening rip currents and rough surf at all east
  coast beaches of Central Florida. Please stay out of the ocean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Currently-Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
continue through this evening (PoPs 20-40%), with greatest coverage
focusing inland or across west central Florida. However, some of
this activity will still be able to push onshore this afternoon into
tonight. While amounts should mostly remain an inch or less,
isolated higher totals up to 2-3" will still be possible (mostly
across the interior). While floodwaters are slowly subsiding from
the excessive rainfall from the past couple of days, especially
across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast, any
additional rainfall will only exacerbate ongoing flooding issues.
A Flood Warning remains in effect for this area through tomorrow
morning, mainly to address the ongoing road closures and lingering
flooding impacts.

Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to 5-10 mph tonight, with
mild overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Friday...High pressure north of the area and offshore the
eastern U.S. coast will continue an onshore flow that will gradually
decrease through late week. Rain chances decrease to 20-30%
Wednesday and then mostly remain out of the forecast through late
week as drier air builds into the area. Highs remain above normal in
the mid 80s, with overnight lows dropping into the 60s as onshore
flow weakens and drier air moves in.

Saturday-Monday...A weak front will push through the area Saturday,
with conditions currently forecast to remain mostly dry through the
weekend. A passing mid level S/W trough may lead to an increase in
rain chances early next week, but model guidance is still not in the
best of agreement. For now, PoPs only rise to 20-30% on Monday. N/NW
flow behind the front will lead to a gradual drop in temps, with
highs in the low to mid 80s on Saturday falling to the mid 70s to
near 80 degrees on Monday. Overnight lows are also forecast to
decrease from the 60s into the weekend, with upper 50s possible,
mainly near to NW of I-4 into Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Tonight-Wednesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will only
slowly improve through tonight into tomorrow. High pressure
offshore the eastern U.S. coast will maintain a moderate to fresh
onshore breeze across the waters. Wind speeds up to 15-20 knots
offshore into tonight decrease to 10-15 knots Wednesday. Seas also
gradually decrease from 5-7 feet to 4-6 feet late tonight into
tomorrow. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the entire waters
through 7 PM this evening, and then persists across the offshore
waters into much of tonight. Small craft will need to continue to
exercise caution offshore into Wednesday for seas lingering up to
6 feet. Isolated showers will continue to develop across the
waters, moving west and onshore through Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday...Boating conditions continue to improve into late
week, with onshore winds decreasing to 5-10 knots. Seas will
initially drop to 3-5 feet on Thursday and then bump up to 6 feet
offshore on Friday. A weak front pushes through Saturday, with winds
becoming N/NW into the weekend, but speeds are forecast to remain
below 15 knots. Seas will continue to range from 4-6 feet. Isolated
showers and potentially a storm or two will be possible, mainly into
the weekend across the offshore waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1220 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Onshore-moving showers are forecast through the afternoon hours,
with the highest coverage focused across the interior. Maintained
TEMPOs for the interior terminals starting at 18Z, but cut them
down to only run through 20Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to
SHRA. VCSH at all coastal terminals this afternoon. By 00Z,
showers are forecast to diminish areawide with mostly dry and VFR
conditions anticipated through the overnight hours. Some slight
signal for MVFR CIGs at some sites, but confidence was too low to
go for it with this forecast package. VCSH chances increase once
again (20-30%) from MLB southward tomorrow starting at 14Z, with
chances expanding inland and towards MCO after 18Z. Easterly winds
prevail through the period around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  83  68  84 /  20  10   0   0
MCO  71  86  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  74  84  71  84 /  20  20   0   0
VRB  74  85  70  85 /  20  20  10   0
LEE  70  86  69  86 /  20  30  10  10
SFB  71  86  69  86 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  71  86  70  86 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  73  84  70  84 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ159-
     164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552-
     555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Tollefsen