340
FXUS62 KMLB 142347
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
747 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- This weekend, low to medium chances of storms continue with a
  focus over the interior and I-4 corridor in the late afternoon
  and evening.

- High pressure and intrusions of drier air over the peninsula
  will result in below-normal rain and storm coverage for much of
  the upcoming work week.

- Temperatures remain near to above normal, with widespread
  Moderate HeatRisk. The potential for Major HeatRisk exists later
  next week, especially around Greater Orlando.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Saturday morning RAOB analysis initialized a 594-dam H5 ridge
nestled atop Central Florida, extending from the Bay of Campeche
to the subtropical Atlantic. A mid-level trough sits over the Ohio
Valley, with additional ridging across the Desert Southwest. The
surface ridge axis was centered very close to, or just north, of
Central Florida.

14/00Z cluster analysis shows strong agreement in a rather stagnant
upper-air pattern across the U.S. through at least the middle of
next week, with a ridge persisting over the Sun Belt and quasi-zonal
westerlies remaining over the northern half of the nation. A
somewhat stronger trough is indicated by some of the members over
the Great Lakes by around Thursday or Friday, which may push a
weakening cold front into the Deep South. By next weekend, the ridge
is forecast to expand northward and become centered over the Mid-
Mississippi Valley.

Locally, the near-surface ridge axis should stay very close to
Central Florida through much of the next week before moving
northward again next weekend. Areas of dry air at 10 KFT (H7) are
forecast to be advected from the W Atlantic toward Florida at times
over the next week, causing total moisture values to be suppressed
near to below normal, especially over the southern half of the state.

The primary outcome from this pattern is the persistence of below-
normal rainfall and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

This Afternoon - Sunday...

A moisture gradient remains situated over the peninsula, making our
I-4 corridor and points north more conducive for late day and
evening rain and storm coverage (50-60%) this weekend. However,
lower-topped showers with isolated lightning remain a 30-40%
possibility along the coast as the sea breeze pushes inland from
late morning through mid-afternoon. The ridge overhead has led to
weak lapse rates which should limit the risk for strong storms.
Activity lingers longest into the evening over places like Lake
County. Hot, muggy days and warm overnights continue - but nothing
too noteworthy for mid-June in Central FL.

Monday - Thursday...

Bouts of drier air over the Atlantic make their way across the
state, leading to lower coverage of showers and storms than one
would typically expect this time of year. We have continued to trend
below blended guidance, leaving us with 30-50% chances of rain and
storms each day - highest over the interior. Low to mid 90s stick
around, with some sea-breeze relief on our barrier islands. Peak
heat index values up to 103F over the interior each afternoon,
resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk, with Major HeatRisk
occasionally affecting the Greater Orlando urban corridor. Stay cool
by finding shade or A/C and staying hydrated!

Friday - Next Weekend...

A dissipating front well north of Florida has a low chance of
concentrating somewhat better moisture over the state and
potentially weakening the ridge enough to spark higher chances (50-
60%) for rain/storms especially over the I-4 region next Friday
and/or Saturday. EPS and GEFS ensemble means diverge somewhat, with
GEFS members supporting a more favorable setup for showers and
storms. By late next weekend, surface pressure patterns suggest that
storms may favor the western half of the peninsula as southeast flow
starts to strengthen again.

Temperatures should remain near to a few degrees above normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A resilient area of high pressure remains centered over the local
Atlantic, steering any major weather disturbances well north of the
area. Low chances for spotty showers and storms continue over the
waters. Behind the daily sea breeze, moderate southeast breezes
should be anticipated each day along with generally favorable seas.

SE winds 10-15 KT at the coast each afternoon, becoming S or light
SW overnight. Seas 2-3 FT through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
Ongoing TSRA/SHRA this evening, mainly across the west coast. Have
lingering VCTS at LEE through 02Z. Winds will become light and
southerly overnight before increasing to around 5-8KT by mid
morning. Winds will then back to the southeast in the afternoon,
increasing to 10 with gusts up to 20 KT along the coast, behind
the sea breeze. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will form along the sea
breeze, first along the coast and then progressing across the
interior as the sea breeze pushes inland, with the sea breeze
collision occurring across west FL. Have included VCTS starting at
18Z for MLB-TIX-DAB, and at 20/22Z for MCO-ISM-SFB-LEE. Winds will
then become light and southerly once again Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  91 /  30  50  30  40
MCO  76  93  76  94 /  30  50  30  50
MLB  76  89  76  89 /  20  30  10  40
VRB  74  90  74  90 /  10  20  10  30
LEE  76  91  76  92 /  50  50  30  50
SFB  76  93  75  94 /  40  50  30  50
ORL  77  93  76  93 /  40  50  30  50
FPR  73  89  73  89 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Watson