401
FXUS62 KMLB 090536
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1236 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions forecast tonight through
Tuesday, with poor boating conditions then lingering across the Gulf
Stream waters through midweek.

- Mostly dry conditions forecast through the remainder of the work
week, with temperatures remaining near to slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tonight-Tuesday...Front near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon will
shift farther southward into tonight, with drier/cooler air
continuing to gradually build in behind the boundary. Wind speeds
will remain somewhat elevated into tonight up to 10-15 mph as surge
of northerly flow behind the front continues. Winds then veer
slightly to the north-northeast into Tuesday and remain up to 10-15
mph. A few showers may still be possible, mainly near to south of
Melbourne through late this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise,
it is forecast to remain mostly dry across the area with cloud cover
slowly decreasing. Cooler temperatures forecast into tonight, with
lows in the 50s for much of the region, except mid to upper 40
northwest of I-4 and low to mid 60s holding on along the southern
Treasure Coast. Highs on Tuesday will be below normal, ranging from
the mid to upper 60s near to north of Orlando and in the low 70s
south.

Wednesday-Friday...High pressure builds down across the region as
another front moves into the southeast U.S. Wednesday and eventually
across the area early Thursday. High pressure then builds in behind
the weak front into late week. No precip is expected with the
frontal passage, with dry conditions forecast across central Florida
from mid to late week. Highs will remain near seasonable values in
the 70s, and overnight lows will be near to slightly below normal,
generally between the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure shifts eastward into the weekend,
and model guidance has begun to back off on showing another frontal
passage until Sunday night at this time. Temperatures look to remain
close to normal into the weekend, with highs continuing in the 70s
and lows in the 50s. The ECMWF has some coastal showers, mainly
along the Treasure Coast later in the weekend, but GFS remains
mostly dry. For now, the forecast leans toward the NBM, which only
has a low (20%) chance for showers along the Treasure Coast for
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tonight-Tuesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions forecast
across the waters through tonight and into Tuesday. Frontal boundary
near the Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon will continue
southward into tonight, with northerly winds across the waters
increasing to around 20 knots this evening, and remain elevated
through tonight. This will build seas to 6-8 feet. Will expand the
SCA to include the entire waters for tonight, and then the SCA
will continue across the Gulf Stream waters through Tuesday
afternoon as seas up to 7-8 feet linger even though winds out of
the N/NE decrease to 10-15 knots.

Wednesday-Saturday...High pressure will build down across the area
into midweek, with another front pushing into the southeast United
States. Winds will continue to decrease Wednesday, switching to the
west-southwest around 5-10 knots, but seas up to 6 feet will linger
over the Gulf Stream waters. Winds then become northwest around 10-
15 knots early Thursday morning as front moves through, decreasing
to 5-10 knots Thursday afternoon as seas fall to 3-5 feet. Another
area of high pressure then builds in behind the front late week and
winds diminish to 5-10 knots generally out of the N/NW as seas
continue to decrease to 2-3 feet. A little more uncertainty then
exists into the weekend, as models have backed off on another
frontal passage early in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

MVFR CIGs for all sites except the Treasure Coast and DAB as of
around 6Z. Improvements to VFR are forecast by around 8-9Z area-
wide, as lingering stratus behind a cold front clears. VFR
conditions then look to prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period, though will need to monitor guidance for the Treasure
Coast tonight into Wednesday morning, as some models suggest MVFR
CIGs returning to that area. Otherwise, elevated northerly winds
10-15 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts, overnight will linger
through much of the afternoon today, before slackening towards
sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  52  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  68  54  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  70  58  74  52 /  10  10  10   0
VRB  72  58  76  50 /  20  20  10   0
LEE  67  49  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  68  52  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  67  53  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  72  58  77  49 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Leahy