934
FXUS62 KMLB 111817
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
217 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Coastal flooding, rough surf, beach erosion, and a high risk of
  rip currents all continue along the east central Florida coast.
  Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged!

- Poor boating conditions continue across the local Atlantic
  waters and are forecast to slowly improve late weekend into
  early next week.

- An area of low pressure off the east central Florida coast
  moves north-northeast through the weekend, with dry conditions
  forecast locally next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Today-Tonight...An area of low pressure located off of the east
central Florida coast is forecast to slowly lift north-
northeastward today across the local Atlantic waters, aided by a
mid-level trough shifting northeastward over the Florida
peninsula. The tight pressure gradient due to the low will lead to
breezy conditions locally, with north to northwest winds of 10 to
15 mph and gusts to 25 mph possible. Winds may be slightly higher
along Volusia coast. Drier air has been noticed wrapping around
the northwest side of the low, visually depicted on the GOES19
Total PWAT viewer. This drier air will lead to lower rain chances
areawide today, with current PoPs generally sitting between
30-50%. The environment remains unfavorable for strong storm
development primarily due to lackluster instability (MUCAPE less
than 1000 J/kg), but occasional lightning strikes and wind gusts
to 45 mph cannot be ruled out with any storms that do manage to
develop. Brief heavy downpours will also be possible with shower
and storm activity, and areas that are well saturated from the
past several days of rainfall will be susceptible to localized
minor flooding. As the area of low pressure and its attendant
front move farther away from east central Florida, activity is
anticipated to move offshore and diminish, with drier conditions
forecast through the overnight hours.

A sneak peak at fall will be possible today thanks to
temperatures remaining just below normal. Highs only reach the
upper 70s to low 80s across east central Florida, with overnight
temperatures falling into the low to mid 60s tonight. Lows in the
upper 60s will be possible across the Treasure Coast.

Aside from the weather, a number of coastal hazards remain in
effect for the area. Coastal flooding, rough surf, minor to
moderate beach erosion, and a high risk of rip currents are all
anticipated to continue today. Heading to the beach is strongly
discouraged, and entering the ocean is discouraged even more due
to the hazardous conditions.

Sunday-Friday...The mid-level troughing swings northeastward
through the weekend and into early next week, with the surface low
and its associated front continuing to move northeastward away
from Florida. Broad high pressure is forecast to set up across the
eastern US into next week, gradually shifting southward towards
Florida by late week. Limited energy aloft paired with lower PWATs
mean that the extended forecast period looks to be fairly dry
across east central Florida, with rain chances anticipated to
remain below 20% through at least Thursday. North to northeast
winds are forecast to prevail through at least Thursday, veering
to out of the east on Friday. This onshore flow may lead to a
slight return of moisture, which could support some isolated
shower development Friday into Saturday. A great deal of
uncertainty remains at this point, and again, rain chances
generally remain at or below 20%. Temperatures are forecast to
remain near normal through next week, with highs generally in the
low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Late next week, lows may only
fall into the low 70s along the coast.

Coastal hazards look to continue through at least Sunday,
particularly coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents.
Extensions in time of these hazards may be needed depending on how
tidal guidance trends over the next day or so. Residents and
visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring the forecast and
always heed the advice of local beach safety officials.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Poor boating conditions persist across the local Atlantic waters
as an area of low pressure slowly moves north-northeastward today
through Sunday. North to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will be
possible through tonight, subsiding to 15 to 20 knots Sunday.
Seas of 6 to 10 feet will be possible across the local Atlantic
waters, with the higher seas focused primarily across the offshore
waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all legs of
the local Atlantic waters, with various zones slowly dropping as
seas subside Sunday into Monday. Beyond Monday, boating conditions
are forecast to be generally favorable, with northwest to
northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas remaining between 3 to
6 feet. Some building to 7 feet across the offshore waters cannot
be ruled out towards the middle of next week.

Rain and storm chances range between 30-50% today due to the low
pressure located across the local waters. Drier air moves into the
area behind the low and its attendant front Sunday through the
remainder of the period, with rain chances falling generally to
20% and less.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Pesky MVFR CIGs persist this afternoon around cyclonic low level
flow from deepening low pressure off the SC coast. Breezy/gusty
NW-N wind flow also bringing fast-moving SHRA across many
terminals esp near the coast. The MVFR CIGs should lift through
late aftn given daytime heating but may redevelop overnight.
North wind component will continue at all terminals, including
MCO, backing more NW on Sunday with less gustiness.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  80  64  82 /  30  10  10  10
MCO  65  83  65  85 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  68  82  67  83 /  20  10   0  10
VRB  68  83  66  84 /  20  10   0   0
LEE  63  82  63  84 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  65  82  64  85 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  65  82  65  84 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  67  84  66  84 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-347-447.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     FLZ141-347-447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for FLZ154-159-164-
     647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Kelly