537
FXUS62 KMLB 200650
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
250 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- A nearly stationary disturbance aloft will help generate
  scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area the next
  few days.

- A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening,
  with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph,
  frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches.

- A cool front is forecast to cross the area Thursday with lower
  rain chances and slight cooling late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Today...Upper level low centered over the western FL peninsula
will maintain deep moisture over the area with PWATs climbing
2.0-2.1". Scattered showers and isolated storms over the Atlc this
morning will cross portions of the coast in light onshore flow.
The Atlc sea breeze will develop and push inland during the day.
So higher pops initially along the coast will transition inland
with the sea breeze. Rain chances look highest along the coast
south of the Cape and over the interior (50-70%) with the lowest
rain chances along the Volusia coast (20-40%). Cool temperatures
aloft (-8C at 500 mb) will support potential for a few strong
storms containing frequent lightning strikes, gusty wind up to 50
mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. Focus
for showers and storms will shift back over the Atlc waters
tonight with some activity brushing the coast. Seasonably warm
temperatures with maxes in the upper 80s/near 90 with peak heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s.

Mon-Sat...The upper level low off the west coast of Florida to
start off the week will slowly fill and lift northeast becoming
absorbed by a northern stream trough by mid week. This northern
stream trough is forecast to cut-off near the mid Atlc states Thu-
Fri which should force a frontal boundary south across the area
Thu and south of the area Fri. Locally, deep moisture will remain
through mid week, supporting high rain and storm chances, with a
high (60-70 percent) chance of rain through Wed. Slightly drier
air will filter across the local area into late week behind a
frontal passage resulting in rain chances becoming near normal,
(30-50 percent), Friday into the weekend. Main storm hazards will
continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds around 45
mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Seasonable temperatures are
forecast with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through mid week
then lowering a tad into the mid and upper 80s behind the front
Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast through mid
week. Northeast to East winds will prevail during the day with
speeds below 15 KT. Winds becoming light SE-S at night. Seas
2-3ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each
day and overnight. Storms will be capable of producing frequent
lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and heavy
downpours. Seas locally higher in the vicinity of storms. On Thu,
an increase in N/NE winds 15-20 knots across the northern waters
behind a cool front is forecast to build seas 4-6 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Isolated showers near or pushing onshore the coast will continue
to be possible through early this morning. Into the afternoon,
scattered to locally numerous showers and storms will develop with
the inland moving sea breeze, with VCTS starting 16-17Z. Have
3-hour PROB30/TEMPO groups for most sites (except KDAB) for MVFR
TSRA impacts between 16-22Z. Majority of convection should again
diminish or shift west-southwest of the area by 00Z, but can`t
rule out lingering areas of rain/isolated showers and storms into
the evening. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the E/NE
around 5-9 knots into the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  88  74 /  20  10  50  10
MCO  90  73  90  73 /  50  10  70  10
MLB  87  74  87  75 /  60  20  60  20
VRB  88  73  87  73 /  60  20  70  20
LEE  89  73  90  74 /  40  10  60  10
SFB  88  73  89  74 /  40  10  70  10
ORL  89  74  90  74 /  50  10  60  10
FPR  88  72  88  72 /  60  20  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Weitlich