115
FXUS62 KMLB 050730
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
230 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

-  Areas affected by catastrophic flooding across southern
   Brevard County and the Treasure Coast: Avoid flooded roads, and
   do not walk or wade through floodwater!

-  Only low rain chances (around 20%) next several days so most
   areas will remain dry. High temperatures will remain very warm
   through Friday reaching the mid 80s. A dry cold front will push
   through Saturday and bring somewhat cooler temperatures.

-  Excessive rainfall over the upper St Johns River basin earlier
   this week is sending a considerable volume of water north
   through the basin. A prolonged river flood event is ongoing
   along the Saint Johns River with conditions likely worsening
   before improvement occurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Today-Fri...A weak cool front pushing into the southeast U.S.
will shift the Atlc ridge axis across our area and produce a light
wind flow. E/NE winds today of 5-10 mph become more variable
Friday with an afternoon sea breeze developing along the coast.
Mostly rain-free conditions forecast through late week though
isolated showers should develop over interior sections each
afternoon. The low rain chances will help floodwaters to gradually
recede across southern Brevard County and the Treasure Coast.
However, residents and visitors should continue to avoid any
flooded roadways and remain out of any lingering floodwaters.

Highs will remain warmer than normal in the mid 80s today and
Friday with peak heat indices in the lower 90s.

Sat-Wed...A weak cool front is still forecast to push through
central Florida Saturday. Limited moisture with this boundary
means it will likely be a dry frontal passage. A wind shift out
of the N/NW will announce its passage. Winds gradually veer N/NE
Sun and NE Mon as high pressure builds in behind this boundary.
The GFS has backed off on the amplitude of its cut-off low across
the deep South and now shows it opening up into a trough as it
crosses FL Wed. This is trending toward the ECMWF solution which
both now show low rain chances Mon-Tue (20%) with the best chance
for showers on Wed (30%). Given the weaker upper support, severe
weather looks unlikely and currently do not have thunder mentioned.
Temperatures trend cooler this weekend behind the front though Sat
still looks warm in the low to mid 80s. Near normal highs in the
upper 70s/lower 80s Sun-Tue. Min temps forecast in the upper 50s
NW of I-4 early next week with 60s elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

High pressure ridge axis will settle over the area the next
couple days and result in a lighter wind flow of 5-10 knots. Not
much of a wind chop but an ENE swell around 4 FT today will build
to 5 FT Fri and will be the primary contribution to wave height.
Swell periods around 8 seconds today will lengthen to 9-10 seconds
Fri. A dry cool front is forecast to push across the area
Saturday producing a wind shift out of the N/NW 10-15 knots and
seas building to 6 FT offshore. Wind flow veers N/NE Sun and NE on
Mon at similar speeds of 10-15 knots. The combination of wind
wave and swell will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions
esp in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

River flood warnings are in effect for all St Johns River
forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River
levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise the next several
days through Minor and in some cases Moderate Flood stage. The
river at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage
later this week with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage
early next week. River forecasts are issued twice per day by the
NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS
Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1229 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR conditions. Light and variable winds become prevailing onshore
this afternoon, but remain under 10 kts. A few showers can`t be
ruled out over the interior this afternoon, but coverage is
expected to be low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  67  84  66 /  10   0  20  10
MCO  86  68  86  69 /  10   0  20  10
MLB  83  70  84  68 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  85  70  85  68 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  86  69  86  67 /  20  10  20  10
SFB  87  68  87  67 /  10   0  20  10
ORL  86  68  86  68 /  10   0  20  10
FPR  84  69  84  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Wishard