519
FXUS62 KMLB 072350
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
650 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 249 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

- Hazardous boating conditions linger in the Gulf Stream tonight
  through Sunday

- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at area beaches today,
  followed by a high risk of life-threatening rip currents Sunday
  into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Current-Sunday... Northerly winds behind a cold front this morning
will work to reinforce a persistent dry airmass. Winds should
gradually diminish through the remainder of the afternoon becoming
light tonight. With clear skies, temperatures will efficiently
cool overnight, falling into the low to mid 40s across much of the
area. Normally cooler areas of northern Lake, interior Volusia,
and rural Osceola counties could fall into the mid to upper 30s,
and patchy frost is forecast in vicinity of Lake George and the
Ocala National Forest. A sunny Sunday is on tap with afternoon
temperatures recovering into the upper 60s and lower 70s, still
remaining a few degrees below normal. At the beaches, an onshore
swell begins to build, increasing the risk for life-threatening
rip currents.

Monday-Friday... High pressure slides southward along the eastern
seaboard with the ridge axis settling near central Florida mid
week. Afternoon temperatures follow a warming trend through the
70s each day, and areas across the interior, south of the Orlando
metro, could touch the 80s beginning on Wednesday. Light and
variable winds should shift onshore each afternoon as a weak sea
breeze develops. The next cold front approaches the area late week
as low pressure develops across the southwest Atlantic. Models
hint that this could bring the next chance for rain by next
weekend, but confidence remains low with a wide spread of ensemble
solutions. For now, dry conditions are expected to persist
through at least Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Northerly winds have developed behind a cold front this morning,
continuing a period of poor to hazardous boating conditions. Small
craft should exercise caution across nearshore Volusia and nearshore
Brevard through tonight as north winds 15-20 kts gradually subside.
Elsewhere, across the Gulf Stream, winds 20-25 kts have built seas 5-
8 ft, and Small Craft Advisories continue across the local Gulf
Stream waters. Building high pressure will allow winds to subside
into Sunday, becoming light through much of the coming week.
However, hazardous seas will be slow to subside in the Gulf Stream
with the Small Craft Advisory continuing for much of the day Sunday.
Although conditions become favorable nearshore, small craft should
continue to exercise caution in the Gulf Stream Monday into mid week
for seas up to 6 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 647 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR and SKC through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this
evening will continue through the overnight. Winds will turn NE
and increase to 5-8 KT along the coast by Sunday mid-morning, with
the interior sites remaining light and variable through much of
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Northerly winds behind a cold front this morning will reinforce a
dry airmass across east central Florida. Although minRH will fall
near to below critical values across the interior into next week,
building high pressure will keep winds light. A warming trend
combined with no rainfall will allow drought conditions to likely
worsen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  65  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  43  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  67  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  69  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  39  68  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  41  68  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  43  69  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Watson