141
FXUS62 KMLB 251935
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
235 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Patchy, locally dense fog late tonight and early Wednesday.

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast through midweek.

- A stronger cold front will move through early on Thanksgiving,
  leading to cooler than normal temperatures and hazardous boating
  conditions for late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Currently...Surface ridge continues near the area with mid level
dry air above 800 mbs on the morning XMR sounding with a PWAT of
1.15 inches. With the dry air aloft, only a few short-lived light
showers had developed this afternoon. Afternoon highs may approach
the mid 80s across the interior, but will likely fall short of
records which are mainly in the upper 80s for todays date.

Tonight...S-SE low level flow around the Atlantic ridge will
become light at the surface overnight allowing low temps to drop
into the lower to mid 60s. Skies will become mostly clear this
evening with patchy fog developing late which may become dense in
a few spots.

Wednesday...Low level flow will become WSW by Wed afternoon ahead
of a cold front approaching the FL Big Bend. After some patchy
early morning fog expect a warm afternoon with highs in the mid
80s across much of the area. Highs will be about 5-7 degs above
normal, amd may come within a deg or two of records in a few
locations. With the continued dry mid level air across most of
the area, a small late afternoon shower chance should be limited
to the far south.

Wed Night/Thanksgiving Day...The approaching cold front will move
toward northern sections by midnight and progress steadily
through the east central Florida on Thanksgiving. Limited
moisture with front, and dry air advection is expected across
northern sections with afternoon showers and low storm chances
forecast across Okeechobee county and the southern Treasure Coast,
mainly in the afternoon before deeper drying arrives by late
evening. Highs will range from the upper 60s across northern
Volusia county to around 80 across Martin.

Thursday night...High pressure will build into the southeast
states with cold air advection with northerly winds 5-10 mph
inland and stronger along the barrier islands. Lows will drop into
the lower 40s across northern Lake and Volusia counties and in the
50s across Martin county. Minimum wind chill values will range
from mid 30s across northern Lake to lower 40s in Orlando and
lower to mid 40s across Okeechobee county.

Previous extended...Friday-Monday...The trough aloft pushes
offshore, trailing generally zonal with maybe a hint of ridging
across the eastern US in its wake Friday and Saturday. Surface
high pressure over the Deep South behind the front begins to shift
east ahead of a low pressure system (possibly) developing over
the Central US. Cool, breezy, and dry conditions are forecast
Friday and Saturday. Forecast confidence decreases Sunday onward
as models begin to disagree on the evolution of the upper level
pattern and a developing surface low. The ECM favors developing a
trough over the eastern Rockies/central US that the GFS keeps as
just a weak shortwave, resulting in the ECM continuing to develop
the surface low and possibly bringing a weak cold front to the
area early next week, while the GFS keeps the surface low weak and
disorganized, though still bringing a weak front to the area by
lifting the previous front north as a warm front, as this solution
keeps surface high pressure over the Atlantic. Official forecast
calls for warming and some chances for rain early next week as
moisture looks to increase one way or another.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Tonight-Wednesday...Generally favorable boating conditions as
high pressure over the western Atlantic veers the south flow to
S-SW across the waters through Wednesday. Winds to around 10 knots
tonight and decreasing slightly on Wed. Seas 2-3 ft. Isolated
showers are expected.

Thursday-Saturday...Boating conditions deteriorate Thursday as a
strong but mostly dry cold front pushes through Florida and the
local waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed
Thanksgiving Afternoon as northerly winds increase to 20-25 kts
and seas build to 5-7 ft, highest in the Gulf Stream. These winds
and seas are forecast to persist through Friday with gulf stream
seas reaching 6-8 ft by Friday afternoon. Conditions remain poor
to hazardous into the weekend as strong high pressure building
into the Deep South keeps a tight pressure across the area,
veering 15-25 kts winds easterly by Saturday and holding seas at
5-7 ft, again highest in the Gulf Stream. Scattered showers and
perhaps a lightning storm are possible with the frontal passage
on Thursday, then mostly dry conditions forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1215 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Generally VFR thru at least late this evening. Mostly dry near
the terminals, but some isolated showers cannot be fully ruled out
near FPR and SUA. S/SE winds dominating during the day forecast
to become light/variable once more tonight, with more fog
development possible late overnight into early Wed morning.
MVFR/IFR VIS reductions will be possible, with future TEMPO groups
potentially necessary. Confidence too low for inclusion of this
presently.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

The cold front pushing through east central FL on Thanksgiving Day
will lower Min RHs below 35 percent mainly NW of the I-4 corridor
with northerly winds up to 10-15 mph making for a fire sensitive
day. Low RH will continue for the NW interior (Lake, western
Volusia, western Orange) Fri afternoon with NNE winds up to 15
mph. Fire Weather headlines may be required for portions of the
northern interior late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  83  59  69 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  65  84  64  73 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  65  83  64  75 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  63  83  64  77 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  63  83  59  70 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  64  84  62  70 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  65  84  63  71 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  63  84  64  77 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Volkmer
AVIATION...Sedlock