169
FXUS64 KMOB 301718
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1118 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Strong flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft
   over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is
   expected for Monday night and Tuesday.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

11.30Z upper air maps show a nearly flat flow in the geo-potential
height field at high levels with a stream of clouds ejecting
eastward over the Lower MS River Valley. In the lower levels and at
the surface, a front was aligned from the OH River Valley, southwest
to across central LA to southern TX. A pre-frontal trof of low
pressure was moving slowly eastward over the western zones where we
see an area of showers. Instability looks to remain limited, with
just showers expected as the frontal approaches/makes passage.
The front makes passage into the northern Gulf tonight but the
flow aloft generally stays southwesterly where the passage of a
series of mid-level impulses support enough lift to maintain small
PoPs, generally 20% or less. Upstream, a positively tilted upper
trof pivots eastward across the Plains Monday with larger scale
lift increasing and overspreading the Lower MS River Valley. At
the surface, it`s more complex with northern Gulf front stalling
out Monday where a wave of frontal low pressure begins to form and
then skirts east northeast over the marine area Monday night.
This feature lifts away Tuesday. At the present time, the cool
sector north of the boundary looks to create a more stable
environment over the land zones Monday and Monday night where the
predominant weather mode is more supportive of likely to
categorical showers with a lower end chance of embedded thunder.
Meanwhile, the Gulf waters to perhaps right along the coast
perhaps more across coastal sections of the Northwest FL
Panhandle could see storms more rooted at the surface east and
southeast of the eventual low track where a bit more instability
over-rides a zone of 0-3KM helicity which could support a few
rotating updrafts. At present time considering the low confidence,
the risk for severe storms is too low for anything higher than a
general storm outlook. Will continue to monitor trends. Rain
chances taper to dry conditions from west to east on Tuesday. Dry
conditions continue Wednesday.

Chances of showers and storms return the latter end of the week as
next storm system moves east across the southern Plains. Another
frontal wave of low pressure also expected to move east northeast
out of the western Gulf Friday and across the central Gulf coast
Friday night into Saturday bringing a return to likely to perhaps
categorical rain chances to the area.

Daytime highs sink to well below normal Tuesday through Thursday
before moderating. Overnight lows trend colder through the middle of
the week. The coldest night looks to be Wednesday morning with lows
plummeting into the mid to upper 20`s interior and some 10 to 15
degrees below December 3rd normal. 35 to 40 right along the coast.
Lows also gradually moderate the latter half of the week, but
still cool.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday,
becoming high Monday night into Tuesday. Rip current risk tapers
to low Wednesday and Thursday. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR flight category prevails across the region this morning, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR flight category this afternoon and
locally IFR this evening. A cold front pushes across the area late
this afternoon into the evening, with winds shifting from
northeasterly to northerly. Winds this afternoon will also
increase in the wake of the front to near 10 knots gusting upwards
of 15 to 20 knots at times this evening. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold front settles just south of the coastal waters late tonight.
A wave of frontal low pressure moves over area waters late Monday.
Onshore flow increases ahead of the low switching to offshore in the
wake of the low Tuesday morning. Winds and gusts may increase to
border-line small craft advisory criteria Monday night into Tuesday.
Seas building. Winds and seas subside Wednesday. The next storm
system approaching from the west brings an increase in onshore winds
and a build seas by the close of the week. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      49  66  47  59 /  20  70  90  20
Pensacola   56  69  55  64 /  20  70  90  30
Destin      56  69  57  66 /  30  70  90  40
Evergreen   46  65  45  58 /  20  60 100  30
Waynesboro  41  59  38  51 /  20  60 100  20
Camden      43  61  39  51 /  20  60 100  30
Crestview   51  68  52  64 /  20  70  90  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$