163
FXUS64 KMOB 082343
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
543 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the marine
   area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the potential
   for occasional gusts to gale force over the open Gulf waters.

 - The first freeze of the season is likely for most of the
   forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall
   into the middle 20`s to lower 30`s.

 - Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible on Monday across
   the entire area with the ongoing drought, very dry weather, and
   forecast strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Winter is coming and coming in a hurry. Shortwave ridging in
place across the area today will give way to a rather potent upper
level low digging into the Ohio River Valley. This upper trough
will push the first arctic front through our area Sunday evening
into the overnight. Moisture and lift ahead of the front will be
rather limited; however, there might be just enough moisture on
Sunday to squeeze out some isolated showers along the immediate
coast. The real talking point will be the cold air coming in
behind the front. Deep northwesterly flow on the backside of the
upper low will allow for continental polar air to surge all the
way through the area and well into the southern Gulf Sunday night
into Monday. Given the strong gradient behind the front, winds
will be gusty with wind gusts on Monday in the 25 to 30 mph range
across parts of the area. Highs will struggle to reach the upper
40s to low 50s on Monday.

Surface high pressure will begin to move over the area by Monday
night as winds relax leading to maximized radiational cooling
across the area. Temperatures will plummet into the mid to upper
20s for most of the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. NBM
probabilities for below freezing are 80-90% all the way to the
I-10 corridor and near 40-50% all the way to the coast. The trend
since yesterday has been colder and given how models handle these
shallow cold air-masses, would not be surprised if we trend a few
more degrees colder. With that in mind, Record daily lows at
Mobile (31 degrees) and Pensacola (33 degrees) are in legit
jeopardy of falling with NBM probabilities of less than 31 at MOB
ranging in the 75-80% range and near 90 to 100% for less than 33
degrees at PNS. At this point we are expecting Freeze Watches to
be issued with tomorrows package and a eventual Freeze warning for
all areas even to the coast. Along with the freezing cold
temperatures, there may be an area along the coastal counties
where winds remain slightly elevated enough and the overlap of
upper 20s to near 30s temps and light winds will result in wind
chills in the low 20s and possibly teens across interior portions
of the Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama. These values would
support the potential for cold weather advisory products on top of
the freeze watch and warning for dangerous wind chill values.
Nonetheless, its going to be downright cold Monday night into
Tuesday morning and given the relatively abrupt and early nature
of this cold compared to normal, we will not be acclimated and the
cold will be even more dangerous to vulnerable communities.

By the middle of the weak, we will steadily begin to warmup again
as the upper low lifts northeast into the northern Atlantic and
high pressure to our west flattens out. This will allow for more
westerly winds aloft and gradual modification of the air. Luckily
it will remain dry with no significant systems moving through and
it will just be a temperature forecast. Highs will gradually warm
each day reaching the mid 70s by the end of the week with lows in
the upper 40s and 50s which after Monday night is going to feel
like a nice morning. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the evening hours. A cold
front will move through the area during the morning, potentially
causing ceilings to lower to MVFR as it moves through. Behind it,
VFR conditions will once again become prevalent for the remainder
of the period. Light southwesterly winds tonight will turn
northwesterly by late morning after the front passes. Winds after
its passage will also increase to around 15 knots, with gusts to
around 20-25 knots. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Light southwesterly flow today will steadily become westerly
tonight. A moderate to strong northwesterly flow develops Sunday
in the wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for all marine zones beginning Sunday afternoon. Gusts to
gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters Sunday night
into Monday morning and considerations for a Gale Watch or
warning for the offshore waters may be needed later this weekend.
However, confidence at this time of frequent gusts are too low to
warrant a watch/warning. Winds should subside on Tuesday and
quickly turn onshore by the beginning of next week as a surface
high moves east of the area. BB-8

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Given our longstanding drought conditions across
the area and a rather dry frontal passage Sunday night into Monday
we do have some growing concerns for dangerous burning conditions
across interior Alabama and Mississippi. Winds increasing to 15
to 20 mph with gusts nearing 30 mph during the day on Monday
coupled with relative humidity values in the 20s will likely
result in rather dangerous fire conditions and a red flag warning
may be warranted given the dry fuels across the area. Winds should
subside on Tuesday; however, continued dry conditions could
remain across the area leading to increased fire danger. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      62  73  36  52 /  20  10   0   0
Pensacola   66  78  42  54 /  10  10   0   0
Destin      67  79  43  55 /  10  20   0   0
Evergreen   58  73  35  50 /  10  10   0   0
Waynesboro  55  68  33  49 /  10   0   0   0
Camden      56  69  33  47 /  10   0   0   0
Crestview   60  78  37  51 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$