643
FXUS64 KMOB 060534
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The soggy pattern sticks around one more day before the pattern
shifts again. The bands of rain earlier on Sunday have lifted north
and dissipated with only a few isolated showers across the area as
of 04z. The main concern through the overnight hours will be low
ceilings as most of the high-res guidance holds off any significant
re-development of showers and storms until the pre-dawn hours. HREF
ensemble mean PWATs show that the slug of moisture sitting overhead
right now (PWATs of 2+ inches) will steadily move northwest of the
area throughout the morning hours (although still very moist
afterward). 3-hr QPF ensemble PMMs (and LPMM) are highlighting a few
spots in a corridor from roughly Stone/George Counties in
Mississippi down across the coastal Alabama counties and northwest
Florida with 2-3 inches of rain from roughly 09z to 18z today. The
area of most concern today will be southern Baldwin County where 8+
inches of rain fell on Sunday afternoon, so any additional heavy
rainfall could lead to minor flooding concerns. Elsewhere, the rain
should be beneficial on Monday for the ongoing drought across much
of the area, so long as it doesn`t all fall in a short period of
time like what happened on Sunday. Temperatures will still get up
into the mid to potentially upper 80s this afternoon, especially in
the spots where it doesn`t rain and there are more breaks in the
clouds.

The ridge aloft begins to backbuild from the Atlantic westward
toward the Gulf as we roll into Tuesday and Wednesday. The lack of
forcing on those days will lead to some afternoon hit-or-miss
showers and storms, but that`s about it. The ridge continues to
slide westward and opens up the door for a shortwave to potentially
dive southward into the region in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.
Model guidance begins to diverge as we get this far out in time but
the ensembles generally agree that a shortwave trough will dip
toward the area late in the week, sending a front into the area.
Some dry air begins to filter into the area behind the front, but a
bigger push of drier air filters into the region later in the
weekend with PWATs cratering to well below an inch. Northerly to
northwesterly flow aloft prevails Friday through early next week.

Beach Forecast - A tight pressure gradient led to gusty
southeasterly winds that will persist today before gradually
relaxing. As a result surf heights should start to somewhat relax
through the morning hours on Monday. The rip current risk remains
HIGH through Tuesday with a MODERATE risk expected on Wednesday for
coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The rip current MOS
guidance indicates another bump in the rip current risk late
Thursday into Friday with some beaches potentially reaching the HIGH
risk category again. For now, we are sticking with the MODERATE risk
through Friday, but if the upward trend in the MOS probabilities
continues, we will adjust the risk upward for late this week.
Coastal overwash may occur again today for vulnerable spots along
the immediate coastline (especially Dauphin Island), especially if
any storms briefly enhance the southwesterly flow at the coast. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

MVFR ceilings over the area become IFR/MVFR overnight then
gradually improve to VFR from late morning into the afternoon.
Scattered showers with some embedded storms mainly affect the
coastal counties into southeast Mississippi this morning then
spread to the remainder of the area in the afternoon. The
convection is anticipated to become isolated at best this evening.
IFR conditions will accompany the stronger storms. Easterly winds
5-10 knots increase to around 10 knots this morning and become
southeasterly. /29


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters through
this afternoon as strong easterly to southeasterly winds persist. No
impact expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible
near thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Advisory level conditions
are possible late in the week as a front potentially slides across
the Gulf. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  86  70  88  68  87  65  82 /  20  30  10  20  10  20  20  10
Pensacola   73  85  73  88  73  87  68  82 /  20  20   0  20  10  20  20  10
Destin      73  86  73  88  73  86  68  82 /  20  20  10  20  10  20  20  10
Evergreen   68  89  68  90  66  87  61  82 /  20  10   0  20  10  30  20  10
Waynesboro  68  86  67  87  65  84  63  80 /  20  20  10  20   0  10  10  10
Camden      68  87  68  88  66  83  60  79 /  10  10  10  20  10  20  20  10
Crestview   68  88  68  90  68  87  62  81 /  20  10   0  20  10  30  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for ALZ265-
     266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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