500
FXUS64 KMOB 211158
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
558 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Dense fog reducing visibility to less than a quarter mile at
   times resulting in hazardous travel conditions is expected to
   continue through this morning generally along and east of the
   I-65 corridor.

 - A strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out this afternoon
   in southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama with a
   very low threat for a damaging wind gust or tornado. Locally
   heavy rainfall is also possible with any storms.

 - A Moderate rip current risk exists through Saturday for local
   beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Patchy to areas of dense fog will remain the primary hazard
through mid morning today mainly near and east of the I-65
corridor. Dense fog has already settled into coastal counties of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle the past hour. Latest night-time
microphysics satellite imagery shows this area of dense fog
expanding inland, most recently spreading into portions of
Escambia and Covington counties in Alabama. Expect this to
continue spreading inland into the overnight hours into Conecuh
County. How far north fog gets is uncertain given upper cirrus
preventing sufficient radiational cooling to allow for boundary
layer decoupling and dense fog formation. Despite this, at least
patchy fog, locally dense, can be expected for areas outside of
the current dense fog advisory through 9 AM CST. Trends will be
monitored through the night to see if any areal extensions are
necessary for the dense fog advisory.

As we head into the day Friday, dense fog lifts and warm
advection continues across the region. Weak upper level speed
divergence owing to a 40 to 50 knot upper jet transiting the area
will allow for the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly west of the I-65 corridor. Greatest coverage
will be focused in interior southeast Mississippi into interior
southwest Alabama. A subtle threat for strong to severe storms
will also exist where a mini spinny or two will be in a marginally
favorable environment to produce a damaging wind gust or tornado.
Ample instability in the lowest few kilometers upwards of 100 to
150 j/kg paired with mixed layer instability around 1,000 to 1,500
j/kg will provide for sufficient energy for thunderstorms.
Curved, elongated hodographs with modest curvature in the lowest
kilometer will allow for low level SRH values in the 100 to 150
m2/s2 range to develop. 30 to 40 knots of shear and around 20 to
25 knots of low level storm relative inflow will promote the
potential for storm organization in the form of miniature
supercells, also referred to as mini spinnies. The overall
limiting factor will be the lack of better forcing, with overall
anticipation for maybe a weakly rotating storm or two in interior
southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama that
generally struggle to deepen. If storms mature and become deeper,
then I could see a marginal threat for a damaging wind gust or
tornado out of one of the storms.

For the weekend, things dry out in the wake of this system with a
cold front pushing across the area Saturday. Friday night into
Saturday morning may feature another low end chance for patchy
fog, locally dense for portions of the area. Best chances
currently appear to be over far southeast Mississippi into far
southwestern Alabama prior to the front moving through. As we head
into next week, attention turns towards our next weather system
approaching the area from the west Tuesday into Wednesday with the
potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. A low
end threat for strong to severe storms may exist given at least
some overlap of instability and shear with forcing. Trends will be
monitored as we move forward in time.

Overall temperatures remain above normal for highs until our next
substantial cold front pushes across the area Wednesday into
Thursday next week bringing high temperatures back to the upper
50`s and lower 60`s Thursday. Otherwise, 70`s and prevail most
afternoons with even some low 80`s Saturday. Overnight lows also
stay above normal most nights in the upper 50`s and lower 60`s,
cooling to near normal Sunday night in the upper 40`s and lower
50`s. Wednesday night and Thursday night will likely fall back
below normal to well below normal in the wake of the next
significant cold front. The overall rip current risk increases to
a Moderate today for area beaches, decreasing back to a Low risk
Saturday night through Monday night, and then increasing back to a
Moderate risk by Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas of dense fog and low ceilings continue to spread inland
across south central and southwestern Alabama leading to VLIFR
visbys and ceilings. Along the immediate coastline, fog has mixed
out and LIFR to IFR ceilings will slowly return to VFR this
morning. Fog should subside a little quicker than the last couple
of days and VFR conditions will return by midday. Scattered
showers and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out by the
afternoon across southeastern Mississippi leading to temporary
reductions in visbys and cigs within the vicinity of the stronger
storms. Winds will remain light out of the south. Some patchy fog
and IFR to LIFR ceilings will likely develop overnight as winds
become westerly as a front moves across the area around midnight.
BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Patchy, locally dense fog remains possible through this morning for
portions of northern Mobile Bay. A general southerly flow will
persist through tonight ahead of a front. Winds gradually turn
northerly by Sunday morning for a brief period behind the front.
Winds turn southerly by Monday, gradually strengthening Monday night
into Tuesday to near exercise caution levels. A strong cold front
will push across the marine waters Wednesday night into Thursday
bringing the potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions to much
of the marine zones late Wednesday night into early Thursday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  64  81  57 /  50  10  10   0
Pensacola   77  69  80  61 /  10  10  10   0
Destin      77  68  79  62 /   0  10  10   0
Evergreen   80  64  83  52 /  30  20  20   0
Waynesboro  78  62  81  52 /  80  20  10   0
Camden      77  63  80  51 /  60  30  20   0
Crestview   79  64  83  55 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ056>060-
     261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>203-
     205.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$