437
FXUS64 KMOB 182318
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The remnants of a tropical disturbance extending generally from
eastern Texas into central Mississippi slowly retreats mostly into
central Texas through Sunday, with an upper ridge meanwhile building
into and over the forecast area. Copious deep layer moisture over
the area, with precipitable water values around 2.0-2.35 inches
trends lower to 1.75-2.0 inches over the weekend, but the main
impact for rain chances will be the upper ridge building into the
region which will suppress convective development. Have gone with
mostly chance to good chance pops for Saturday, then slight chance
to chance pops follow for Sunday. Will need to continue to monitor
for the potential of locally heavy rains and stronger storms
mainly through Saturday. A weak surface trof moves through the
forecast area late Sunday night into Monday, stalling near the
coast in the afternoon. The surface trof moves well offshore
Monday night, and by Tuesday night a seemingly innocuous weak
surface low forms over the northeast Gulf and then moves slowly
westward through Thursday. Meanwhile, the upper ridge which was
centered over the area on Sunday becomes oriented mainly over the
lower Mississippi River valley for Monday and Tuesday, then shifts
into the interior eastern states. This allows for a series of
progressively stronger shortwaves to move across the forecast
area, and with the weak surface trof moving into/through the area
along with the formation of the weak surface low, will support
rain chances to increase to likely to categorical for much of the
area for Wednesday and Thursday. Similar rain chances are
anticipated for Friday. Heat index values will be 100-106 on
Saturday and a bit higher on Sunday, potentially reaching Heat
Advisory criteria (108) in some spots but not sufficient to
warrant consideration of an advisory at this point. Heat index
values continue to trend higher for Monday into Wednesday when
heat index values of 103-111 look to be realized, with the higher
values tending to be over the southern and central portions of the
area. The anticipated trend towards higher rain chances finally
looks to help limit afternoon high temperatures by Thursday (and
Friday as well), and heat index values will trend to 100-106 by
Friday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail throughout the period with winds becoming
light overnight. Showers and storms may develop overnight (after
09z) near the terminals, but did not include prob30s as confidence
was too low in the development. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow prevails
through Monday, then becomes westerly to northwesterly Monday
night into Tuesday night. A light southeasterly flow develops
Wednesday afternoon. No impacts are anticipated other than higher
winds and seas near storms. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  91  75  93  75  95  75  96 /  20  60  10  40  10  40  10  50
Pensacola   79  91  78  93  78  95  79  96 /  10  50  10  30  10  40  30  60
Destin      81  92  80  93  81  94  81  95 /  10  40  10  30  10  40  30  60
Evergreen   74  94  73  96  74  97  74  97 /  10  40  10  20  10  30  20  40
Waynesboro  72  92  72  95  74  96  73  97 /  20  40   0  20   0  20  10  20
Camden      74  92  73  94  74  94  74  95 /  20  30  10  20  10  30  10  30
Crestview   74  93  74  96  75  97  75  97 /  10  50   0  40   0  60  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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