635
FXUS64 KMOB 121122
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
622 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - High rain chances continue through Sunday with the potential
   for localized flash flooding. A few strong storms capable of
   producing strong wind gusts will be possible through the
   weekend.

 - Waterspouts are possible with any storms over the marine waters
   this morning, primarily from dawn through mid-morning.

 - High temperatures are expected to increase next week with heat
   indices potentially ranging from 100-106 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The upper ridge has moved off the East Coast of the US into the
Atlantic. The advancing shortwave continues to move in from the west
across the Southeast and lifts northeast with the mean flow late
Saturday. Enhanced coastal convergence may set up storms with the
potential for localized flooding along the immediate coast this
morning. PMMs show some areas of enhanced rainfall which are not
widespread as yesterday, but some small bullseyes are showing up in
the latest guidance. Additionally, storms over coastal waters have
waterspout potential.

Deep layer moisture remains in the area with PWATs well above normal
with values in the 2.1-2.3 inch range. The latest 00Z sounding to
the west at LIX shows the most of the atmospheric column close to
fully saturated and a 2.24 inch PWAT which is still above the 90th
percentile based on sounding climatology. These high PWATs and warm
mid-level temperatures with a freezing level of 15,000+ feet will
support very efficient warm rain processes within any convection.
Ensembles show this deep moisture plume of 2+ inch PWATs persisting
through the weekend before returning closer to normal on Monday. The
area in turn has scattered to numerous pops for each afternoon and
isolated to scattered storms in the morning over marine areas
through the weekend. Temperatures will be near normal for this time
of year in the upper 80s and low 90s. Afternoon dewpoints should
stay generally in the low 70s to perhaps the upper 60s inland where
the most efficient mixing occurs with mid 70s closer to the coast.
This should keep the heat indices below criteria through the
weekend.

Ridging builds back into the area by the end of the weekend. With
the increased subsidence from the center of the ridge so close, this
results in lower precipitation chances and increasing temperatures
back above normal in the mid 90s inland and the low 90s along the
coast. This especially happens on Monday and Tuesday where we are
close to Heat Advisory criteria, but I expect we will mix out enough
to stay below 108+ heat indices. Normal PWATs are in the area
through Tuesday and isolated storms are possible along the seabreeze
each afternoon. PWATs may drop below normal to 1.4-1.6 inches by
Wednesday and with the subsidence in the area, rain chances drop
off to end the week. The ridge begins to retrograde to the west by
the end of the week and we shift to northeasterly upper flow.

...BEACH FORECAST...

The rip current risk is now low today and lasts through mid next
week for all area beaches in Florida and Alabama. We are seeing an
uptrend in winds, so an increase to moderate rip current risk may be
necessary beginning next Wednesday when a strong easterly flow may
set up. Outside of any storms, surf heights remain generally 1 to 2
feet through mid next week.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

West of the I-65 corridor remains at VFR flight category while
east of I-65 remains in MVFR to IFR flight category at daybreak
this morning. Low ceilings and reduced visibility from stratus and
patches of fog should lift over the next couple hours, with VFR
flight category returning to all locations by mid to late morning.
Scattered showers and storms near the coast should gradually
develop and spread inland today, resulting in temporary reductions
in flight category. Winds will generally stay out of the west to
southwest this morning less than 5 knots, turning out of the south
around 5 knots this afternoon before calming after sunset. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Light southerly to southwesterly flow prevails this weekend. A light
diurnal flow pattern sets up Monday into Tuesday, becoming a
moderate to strong easterly flow by Wednesday. Small Craft
Advisories may become necessary mid week. 1 foot seas persist
through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 3 to 6
feet. Waterspouts are possible early each morning. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  73  91  73 /  50  10  50   0
Pensacola   88  77  89  77 /  80  20  60   0
Destin      88  77  88  77 /  80  20  40  10
Evergreen   90  70  93  69 /  50  10  30   0
Waynesboro  91  72  94  70 /  30  10  20   0
Camden      89  72  93  70 /  50  10  20   0
Crestview   90  72  91  72 /  60  10  60   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$