236
FXUS64 KMOB 132352
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...Now through Saturday night...

This afternoon, an upper level shortwave trough moves northeast on
the west side of an upper high centered off the Florida Atlantic
coast. A line of thunderstorms spawned near the Mississippi River
moved east over the western third of the forecast area this
afternoon. The shortwave is expected to move north of the forecast
area by 00z/7pm this evening. East of the weakening line, individual
storms will move northeast across the forecast area. With analysis
indicating MLCapes in the 2000-2500J/kg range, along with DCapes in
the 700-1000J/kg range, a few strong to severe storm may be
possible. Bulk Wind Shear over and east of the Alabama state line is
limited, leading to more pulse type storms. West of the Alabama,
outside of the current storms, the same instability is present, but
Bulk Shear around 30kts is indicated, leading to some more organized
storms and a bit better chance of rowdy storms. Going into tonight,
this passing shortwave is strong enough to shift an upper ridge over
the eastern Gulf to off the Florida Atlantic coast a bit, shifting a
surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast south a
bit, but the forecast area remains under moisture rich flow off the
Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop south of the
coast later tonight, then begin to move onshore during the morning,
along with redeveloping over land area in the afternoon. Again, some
of these storms may become strong to severe, especially in the mid
to late afternoon.

Temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected
through the Near Term. High temperatures have topped out in the
upper 80s to around 90 today, with Heat Indices topping out in the
upper 90s to low 100s. The same is expected for Saturday. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected along the I-10 corridor
and north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast tonight and again
Saturday night.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected through Saturday night.
/16

...Sunday Through Thursday Night...

Upper ridging across the southeast U.S. attempts to build in Sunday
through Tuesday of next week as a series of weak shortwaves transit
areas to our north. Overall rain chances gradually diminish,
particularly as we get into mid to late week as upper ridging
strengthens across the southern and central CONUS. Expect scattered
to locally numerous coverage of showers and storms Sunday into
Monday, particularly in the vicinity of the seabreeze boundary, with
proceeding days seeing more isolated to scattered coverage. Ample
CAPE and weak shear any given day will favor pulse type ordinary
cells that could become strong during peak heating each day
producing gusty winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. Afternoon highs begin to increase into the lower 90`s
most days, perhaps even a few mid 90`s by mid to late week.
Overnight lows remain warm in the lower to middle 70`s each night. A
Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place Sunday through
Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions should generally prevail over the next 24 hours.
Some patchy fog may attempt to develop over interior portions of
the local area late tonight, possibly bringing localized
reductions in visibility to IFR or lower. Any fog that does
develop will dissipate a little after sunrise. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms will once again develop during the
late morning and into the afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions
in visibility and ceilings under the heaviest activity. Light
southerly to southwesterly winds will continue through the period.
/96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected through the
forecast. Overnight convection developing over open Gulf waters may
contain waterspouts in the late night/early morning period.
Otherwise, no impacts are expected other than locally higher winds
and seas being possible near thunderstorms. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  90  74  90  73  90  74  89 /  20  70  30  80  30  70  20  70
Pensacola   77  89  77  88  77  88  77  88 /  30  70  40  80  40  70  30  60
Destin      79  89  79  90  79  89  79  89 /  40  70  50  80  40  70  40  60
Evergreen   72  90  70  90  71  91  71  90 /  20  80  30  80  30  70  20  70
Waynesboro  72  90  70  90  70  90  72  92 /  40  70  30  80  30  70  10  60
Camden      72  88  70  88  71  89  72  88 /  30  80  40  80  30  70  20  60
Crestview   72  90  72  91  71  90  72  91 /  20  80  30  80  30  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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