020
FXUS64 KMOB 091122
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
522 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

 - Dense fog may become a concern this week, especially Monday
   night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

 - Much above normal temperatures will occur Monday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Now through Sunday...

An upper level shortwave trough moves over the Southeast Monday into
Monday night. With very modest moisture levels to work with
(precipitable h20 levels < 0.9"), no rain is expected.  A closed low
off the Pacific coast of Mexico moves east into mid week, opening as
it shifts an upper ridge over the Plains to over the Southeast. This
shortwave trough moves over the Southeast Wednesday through
Wednesday night. A surface high shifts to over the Carolinas before
moving over the Caribbean into mid week, resulting in a more
organized onshore flow over the northern Gulf coast, and bringing
Gulf moisture inland. The tightest pressure gradient is being
advertised over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday before
shifting east over the western Southeast. Guidance is advertising
precipitable h20 values rising into the 1.1"-1.3" range, with higher
levels north of the forecast area along a cold front sagging south
over the Southeast. Overrunning over this cold front will provide
the best chance for precipitation mid week. Instability is marginal
at best, so am not expecting any rumbles to mix in. For the latter
half of the week through the weekend, more shortwave energy
approaches and moves over the Southeast Friday into the weekend.
Moisture levels see an uptick into the weekend, into the 1.3"-1.5"
range. Model soundings also show more instability over the weekend,
so am expecting more rumbles to mix in. At this time, not enough
instability, nor wind shear for stronger storms is indicated.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Saturday into Saturday night before drying out Sunday.

We are still looking at increasing fog issues tonight into mid week.
With warmer, moist flow over cooler waters (water temperatures in
the 50s to low 60s) over Mobile Bay and west, and modest low level
flow, increasing chances of dense fog is expected. Am anticipating
Dense Fog Advisories for land and protected/near shore waters
Tuesday into mid week.

Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected through the forecast,
with high temperatures in the 70s over most of the area (lower where
the fog hangs in longer closer to the coast). Low temperatures in
the 50s are expected over most of the area through the week.

Modest onshore flow through the week will keep onshore swell low.
Even with an increasing tidal range, a Low Risk of Rip Currents is
expected. Onshore flow increases in the coming weekend, with the Rip
Risk rising to moderate.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

IFR ceilings over portions of southeast Mississippi and extreme
southwestern Alabama improve to VFR this morning, with VFR
conditions expected to prevail over the remainder of the area
through this afternoon. Areas of fog with IFR to possibly VLIFR
conditions are anticipated to develop across much of the area late
tonight. Calm or light and variable winds become south to
southwest 5-10 knots this morning, then diminish by this evening.
/29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1156 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A light southeasterly to southerly flow through tonight
will become predominately southwesterly Monday through midweek as a
surface ridge sets up across the eastern Gulf. Winds should shift
briefly to a light offshore flow late Wednesday night through noon
Thursday as a weak front passes through the area, followed by a
return to a light onshore flow Thursday afternoon through Friday.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  50  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   69  53  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      66  54  66  57 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   73  48  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  72  50  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      71  50  73  57 /   0   0   0  10
Crestview   73  47  73  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$