274
FXUS64 KMOB 111511
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1011 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 942 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

 - A strong storm or two can`t be ruled out this afternoon ahead
   of a cold front. Locally heavy rainfall may also be possible
   along the immediate coastline.

 - Dry weather and above normal high temperatures return to the
   forecast mid to late week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

11.14Z water vapor satellite imagery indicates a convectively
active/enhanced area of lightning activity along a piece of
southern stream mid-level energy passing over LA. The deepest
convection is aligned from southern LA, southward to out over the
northwest Gulf. This feature is ejecting east out of the main trof
that is diving southeast over TX. At the surface, a front was
oriented from the Carolinas southwest to off the upper TX coast.
As the upper impulse over LA continues sliding eastward today, the
front also eases in across the central Gulf coast and will
provide a focus for showers and storms to increase in areal
coverage as an east to west belt of environmental instability,
characterized by Mean SBCapes increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg
develop. The short range ensembles show this aligning best from
southeast MS, eastward to along and north of I-10 and south of US
Highway 84. Still a little early to see 11.12Z ensemble member
solutions of future 40+ dBZ radar echoes, but the 11.06Z
counterpart does show radar echoes filling in and increasing in
coverage over these areas just discussed from 11.20 to 12.00Z and
activity lingering into the early evening before weakening and/or
slipping southward. Although low-level winds and lapse rates are
rather weak, a few storms could still overachieve and become
marginally severe capable of damaging winds and perhaps large
hail. It`s not out of the question that storms that organize and
move over the same areas will bring heavy rain potential and a
marginal risk of localized flooding. /10

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

One last shot of heavy rain and strong storms will be possible on
Monday before a pattern switch brings our first real taste of
summer by the weekend. Our final system arrives today as a
shortwave trough ejects across the deep south. Rather stout upper
diffluence will quickly move across the area during the late
afternoon and evening hour and storms will likely form along a
boundary draped from west to east across the area. Looking at
forecast soundings and there is certainly the potential for a few
stronger storms with hail and possibly a damaging wind gust or two
as the primary threats. Low level shear is rather paltry, but
modest deep layer shear around 40 knots could support some
organized clusters and potentially a transient supercell or two
as storms begin during the afternoon. The severe threat should not
last long as storms cluster and impinge upon each other. Deep
moist profiles generally tend to not be supportive of large hail;
however, weak storm relative inflows, decent instability within
the hail growth zone could support an instance or two of severe
hail (1 inch or greater) in any transient supercellular
structures that do develop. Damaging winds could also be possible
if any organized clusters that do develop and are able to mix
down stronger mid-level winds. On-top of the low end potential
for some strong to severe storms, heavy rainfall will be possible.
PWATS will be in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and with plenty of
instability, some heavier rainfall rates could be possible leading
to localized flooding concerns. The greatest concern will likely
be along the immediate coastline where ensemble means are in the 2
to 4 inch range with some locally higher pockets. IF these higher
pockets occur over poor drainage urban areas along the coast then
some localized flooding may occur. Luckily even with all the rain
we have had we are still in a rather significant drought which is
likely keeping us from more significant flooding concerns.

By Monday night the upper shortwave will quickly move east ushering
in a significantly drier pattern by midweek. Upper ridging will
strengthen over the central US leading to dry northwesterly flow
to develop through the remainder of the week. This upper ridge
will flatten out and shift eastward with time leading to a gradual
warmup through the weekend as highs top out in the 90s by
Saturday and Sunday. Rain will be hard to come by for the
foreseeable future and our first real taste of the upcoming summer
will be upon us by early next week. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Dense fog has developed over portions of southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama this morning, helping to reduce visibilities and
ceilings to VLIFR. This fog is expected to dissipate over the next
one to two hours, with VFR conditions returning for the late
morning/early afternoon hours. Rain chances are expected to increase
by the late afternoon and into the evening hours as a front
pushes through the area. These showers and storms will likely
bring visibility reductions to MVFR, or possibly IFR in some of
the heavier activity. Rain should gradually decrease during the
overnight hours. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A light onshore flow persists through today before winds turn
westerly then northerly late this afternoon and evening behind a
cold front. Winds briefly increase Monday night before a light
easterly to northeasterly flow develops on Tuesday. Winds become
variable, primarily offshore flow, by mid-week before shifting
back to onshore flow Friday. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  65  85  64 /  60  40   0   0
Pensacola   84  68  83  68 /  60  50  10   0
Destin      83  69  82  70 /  40  40  20  10
Evergreen   85  62  85  62 /  30  20   0   0
Waynesboro  82  60  83  60 /  40  10   0   0
Camden      81  60  82  60 /  40  10   0   0
Crestview   88  65  87  63 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$