412
FXUS64 KMOB 211113
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
613 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are
   expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with
   gusty winds being the main threat.

 - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106
   degree range through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A few patches of light fog are present mainly over interior areas
and will burn off shortly after sunrise. The forecast is on track
for today with no changes planned. /29

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Through Wednesday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast
opens into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, which then shifts
east as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the
Southeast. A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern
Conus, and in combination with a surface low organizing off the East
Coast, shift a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over
the region. The push is greater west of the Mississippi River,
shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping
precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area south.
Guidance is inconsistent with the shift, with some dropping moisture
levels to 1.5" or less by Wednesday evening (most mesoscale models)
to 1.5"-2" (the global models and ensembles). Any which way one cuts
it, POPs drop into mid week. In combination with the building upper
ridge, scattered PoPs Monday drop to isolated, seabreeze driven by
Wednesday. As with this time of the year, enough instability, both
MLCapes (around 2500J/kg) and DCapes (700-1000J/kg) are enough for a
few strong to marginally severe pulse type storms to be possible
each afternoon/evening into mid week.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures above
seasonal norms into mid week. High temperatures in the 90-95 degree
range are expected. Boundary layer moisture remains high enough for
heat indices to top out in the 100-106 degree range. Low
temperatures do see a bit of a drop with the drop in deep layer
moisture, from low to mid 70s Monday night, to the upper 60s to
around 70 inland, mid 70s along the coast Wednesday night.

Thursday on...as the surface low off the East Coast organizes a bit
more, then moves north along the coast, a secondary cold front moves
southwest along the Appalachians, reinforcing the dry air over the
Southeast along with dropping temperatures to near seasonal norms by
the end of the coming weekend.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally
light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through the
week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf
coast in the coming weekend, bringing a moderate to high risk of rip
currents in the coming weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Isolated to possibly scattered showers and storms develop across
much of the area this afternoon and linger into the evening hours.
MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger
storms. Northeast to east winds around 5 knots are expected to
develop this morning, then become southerly near the coast in the
afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds
becoming onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A
moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and persists through Friday.
Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly build to 3 to 5 feet
Thursday into Friday. Small craft may occasionally need to
exercise caution over the open Gulf Thursday into Friday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  72  92  72 /  40  20  30   0
Pensacola   90  75  91  75 /  20  20  20   0
Destin      89  75  90  76 /  20  20  20   0
Evergreen   93  68  94  68 /  20  20  20   0
Waynesboro  95  70  95  69 /  30  20  20  20
Camden      94  71  94  69 /  20  20  20  10
Crestview   92  69  93  70 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$