


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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700 FXUS63 KMPX 171101 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 601 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers diminishing early this morning with a few more developing this afternoon in WI. Another chance arrives Saturday. - Highs near 70 today. Temperatures drop closer to normal over the weekend. - Gusty winds possible Monday night and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A stationary front along the MN/WI border stretching south into the mid Mississippi Valley has produced scattered to numerous showers across northwest and central WI overnight. Meanwhile, a cold front across far western MN has produced a band of additional showers just ahead of it. There has been a diminishing trend with those showers during the last couple of hours, but complete dissipation is not expected until later this morning. Regardless, any rainfall amounts will be very light, maybe a hundredth or two of an inch. Temperatures are quite mild early this morning in the warm sector with low 60s across much of MN. Even dew points are hovering near 60. The cold front will advance eastward today. As the afternoon progresses, additional showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two may develop in WI. Skies will clear behind the front. Highs today will reach the mid to upper 60s across western MN, with low to mid 70s across eastern MN and WI. A reinforcing trough and secondary cold front will push through Saturday. Strong forcing will accompany the sharpening trough and showers may break out across southwestern MN Saturday afternoon. The trough will become more negativelty-tilted with time and surface low pressure will develop over southeastern IA and lift north into southern MN Saturday night. This could spread showers northeast into eastern MN and especially WI. Low PoPs were introduced for these areas, but chances may need to be raised quite a bit if the more aggressive hi-res guidance maintain their current trends. Slight ridging returns Sunday with ample sunshine and near normal temps. Another trough will swing through early next week, accompanied by another chance for showers with the front Monday and the post frontal, moist cyclonic flow Monday night and early Tuesday. A strong pressure gradient and pressure rises should make for breezy conditions, but a relatively weak cold air advection regime may limit the depth and how steep low level lapse rates can get. This would make it more difficult to mix some of the higher gusts to the surface. The early week trough will exit by midweek. Another weak trough may swing through in the Thursday timeframe, but will dig into the eastern U.S. after it passes. Ridging will return to the central U.S. next weekend as a highly anomalous trough digs into the western U.S. The pattern looks dry and warm. Ensemble means are already highlighting 850 mb temps 8-9C above normal. Highs may return to the 70s, which would be 15+ degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 547 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Rain showers along and ahead of the front have noticeably diminished this morning, reducing the risk of any impacts at most terminals. Main thing to watch for is an increasing chance of seeing a few hours of MVFR conditions this morning. Cigs will be right around 2500-3500 ft, so sites may jump between MVFR and VFR at times. Winds will continue to shift more southwesterly today, gusting to around 20 to 25 kts late morning into early afternoon. Clouds will clear out by late afternoon, resulting in solid VFR conditions through the rest of the period. KMSP...Introduced a short window of high MVFR cigs late this morning. It may be a case where we shift between MVFR and VFR during this 3.5 hour window. Expect clouds to move east by 20-22z and winds to weaken by 00z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...BED