700
FXUS63 KMPX 171101
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
601 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers diminishing early this morning with a few more
  developing this afternoon in WI. Another chance arrives
  Saturday.

- Highs near 70 today. Temperatures drop closer to normal over
  the weekend.

- Gusty winds possible Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A stationary front along the MN/WI border stretching south into
the mid Mississippi Valley has produced scattered to numerous
showers across northwest and central WI overnight. Meanwhile, a
cold front across far western MN has produced a band of
additional showers just ahead of it. There has been a
diminishing trend with those showers during the last couple of
hours, but complete dissipation is not expected until later this
morning. Regardless, any rainfall amounts will be very light,
maybe a hundredth or two of an inch. Temperatures are quite mild
early this morning in the warm sector with low 60s across much
of MN. Even dew points are hovering near 60. The cold front will
advance eastward today. As the afternoon progresses, additional
showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two may develop in WI.
Skies will clear behind the front. Highs today will reach the mid
to upper 60s across western MN, with low to mid 70s across
eastern MN and WI.

A reinforcing trough and secondary cold front will push through
Saturday. Strong forcing will accompany the sharpening trough
and showers may break out across southwestern MN Saturday
afternoon. The trough will become more negativelty-tilted with
time and surface low pressure will develop over southeastern IA
and lift north into southern MN Saturday night. This could
spread showers northeast into eastern MN and especially WI. Low
PoPs were introduced for these areas, but chances may need to
be raised quite a bit if the more aggressive hi-res guidance
maintain their current trends. Slight ridging returns Sunday
with ample sunshine and near normal temps.

Another trough will swing through early next week, accompanied
by another chance for showers with the front Monday and the
post frontal, moist cyclonic flow Monday night and early
Tuesday. A strong pressure gradient and pressure rises should
make for breezy conditions, but a relatively weak cold air
advection regime may limit the depth and how steep low level
lapse rates can get. This would make it more difficult to mix
some of the higher gusts to the surface.

The early week trough will exit by midweek. Another weak trough
may swing through in the Thursday timeframe, but will dig into
the eastern U.S. after it passes. Ridging will return to the
central U.S. next weekend as a highly anomalous trough digs into
the western U.S. The pattern looks dry and warm. Ensemble means
are already highlighting 850 mb temps 8-9C above normal. Highs
may return to the 70s, which would be 15+ degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Rain showers along and ahead of the front have noticeably
diminished this morning, reducing the risk of any impacts at
most terminals. Main thing to watch for is an increasing chance
of seeing a few hours of MVFR conditions this morning. Cigs
will be right around 2500-3500 ft, so sites may jump between
MVFR and VFR at times. Winds will continue to shift more
southwesterly today, gusting to around 20 to 25 kts late morning
into early afternoon. Clouds will clear out by late afternoon,
resulting in solid VFR conditions through the rest of the
period.

KMSP...Introduced a short window of high MVFR cigs late this
morning. It may be a case where we shift between MVFR and VFR
during this 3.5 hour window. Expect clouds to move east by
20-22z and winds to weaken by 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G20kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...BED