262
FXUS63 KMPX 111153
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
553 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another snow-bearing system arrives late this morning in
  western MN and spreads southeast into southern MN during the
  afternoon/evening. About 1-2" of snow is expected south of the
  MN River.

- Bitter cold this weekend, coldest Sunday morning with wind
  chills dropping from -30 to -35F.

- A big warm-up looks possible for the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Cloud cover tonight has created a stark contrast in overnight lows.
Where it`s clear, temperatures have bottomed out to within 5 degrees
of zero. Meanwhile, cloudier regions remain in the teens. Overcast
skies will develop this morning as our next clipper system arrives.
Highs as a result will only warm into the mid to upper teens.
Flurries are possible from central MN into western WI today, but the
majority of the snow is forecast to fall in southwest MN, close to
the strong thermal gradient and mid-level forcing of the clipper.
Snow will start in far western MN by mid-morning and slowly spread
southeast into southern MN by early afternoon. The snow will end
across western MN late afternoon and then southern MN by tonight as
the system slides into the Midwest. Snowfall amounts aren`t forecast
to be too heavy, but 1-2" is possible across our far southwestern MN
counties, particularly along I-90 near Fairmont. Travel may be a
little difficult in this region Thursday afternoon/evening, as
partially snow covered roads could result. Thursday night`s lows
won`t cool too much (only the single digits to low teens) due to
continued overcast skies.

A cold front will move east across MN and into WI by Friday
afternoon. A few snow showers are possible ahead of the front during
the morning and early afternoon hours, but accumulations should only
be cosmetic. Northwesterly winds will also increase as the front
passes with gusts reaching 25-35 MPH. This could cause areas of
reduced visibilities as any freshly fallen snow could blow around,
particularly in the rural areas of central and western MN. However,
the biggest concern with this cold front is the very cold, Arctic
air that will proceed it. Deterministic models forecast an
Arctic airmass with 850 hPa temperatures near -28 C and an
attendant surface high pressure to move into the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest by this weekend. Temperatures will begin
their plummet Friday night as lows are forecast in the mid-
negative teens in central MN while negative single digits are
progged for southern MN. Highs Saturday won`t be fun either as
values will struggle to rise above 0 with negative single digits
looking likely for most of our CWA. The low point looks to be
Saturday night as the NBM has temperatures at least in the
negative teens with negative 20s likely for most of our MN
counties. If these temperatures weren`t alarming, the wind chill
values during this time period should be. While winds will slow
after Friday, they should still be steady enough to greatly
affect the "feels like" temperature. Wind chill values are
forecast to be at least -20 F for most of the area Friday night
and Saturday night with central and western MN having a good
chance at seeing -30s. Winds during the day Saturday could get
breezy such that wind chill values don`t really improve even
with sun. Due to this, cold weather headlines will be needed in
future updates for at least a portion of this weekend.

Sunday looks to be slightly warmer but still decently cold for this
time of year. However, a big warm-up looks likely to happen for
Tuesday and Wednesday as upper-level ridging moves into the Northern
Plains. Nearly all of the area is currently forecast to have highs
near or above freezing each of these days, which would be drastic
change from what we`ll experience this weekend. If you like more
traditional winter temperatures, temperatures are favored to cool
slightly after Wednesday with highs and lows more towards normal.
But, if you want continued chances at snow, long-range models don`t
suggest any significant chances for precipitation Saturday through
most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Main change was continue to pull back snow chances for later
today in the TAFs. A band of snow is expected to develop across
far southwest MN into northern Iowa, though the north edge of
that snow is expected to make it about as far north as RWF and
MKT. We still have prevailing snow at RWF, but have pushed MKT
snow into a prob30 and dropped any snow mention today at all
other terminals. This falls in line with what we`re seeing from
the ECMWF-AIFS and ECMWF. The HRRR continues to look overdone on
the northern extent of its snow, though it has been trending
south through the night. Best chance for snow this period looks
to be for a 1-3 hour period late night into Friday morning when
the arctic boundary moves through.

For clouds, a ribbon of stratus got stuck under the ridge from
RST and LSE up through the Twin Cities and St. Cloud overnight.
With the weak low level flow in place, it will be tough to make
these clouds budge, but by this afternoon, we should pick up
just enough of a southeast wind to help mix these clouds out.
After that, clouds are expected to lower to MVRF/IFR levels with
and behind the passage of the arctic boundary late in the
period.

KMSP...With the weak flow in place, it is possible that MSP is
never able to clear the 2k for cigs out this period. Best chance
for more than just flurries at MSP comes with that frontal
passage from 12z to 15z Friday morning. Looks like we would have
an hour or two of snow before diving into the freezer for the
weekend.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/-SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...MPG