934
FXUS63 KMPX 051738
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1138 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow and slick travel conditions likely along
  I-94 Friday. Snow amounts of 1-3" are expected.

- Another storm system will produce accumulating snow and
  travel impacts across southern MN on Saturday.

- Sub-zero morning lows return for the end of the weekend,
  followed by yet another storm system with the potential for
  mixed precipitation early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

An inch or two of snow has fallen over the area so far this morning
with another inch or so possible over eastern Minnesota into western
WI as the radar echoes are strongest between the Metro and
Mankato as of 11AM. The 511 map is lit up with multiple
accidents and crashes across the Metro as roadways remain
partially snow covered and slick, resulting in slow travel and
difficulty stopping. These road conditions are likely to remain
through the afternoon and into the evening as light snow is
expected to continue through the next few hours before tapering
off from west to east towards the late afternoon to early
evening. Visibilities are generally running under 2 miles for
most observing locations experiencing snow, and will also not
improve until snow ends later today. Forecast soundings continue
to show a saturated DGZ lasting through around 20-21z (3-4pm) in
eastern MN and as late as 23-00z (5-6pm) in western WI,
although the layer is somewhat shallow at only around 2500ft in
depth, which is why we are seeing smaller snowflakes and snow
rates for now. Any stronger bursts of snow will be due to
dynamic cooling due to evaporation/sublimation allowing for a
deeper DGZ depth and more efficient snow production despite the
somewhat weak forcing.

Given the snow already on the ground and continued light snow into
the evening, we want to continue to stress giving yourself some
extra time while traveling including during the evening commute
today. Light snow events often end up with larger travel impacts
than bigger events due to the higher number of people continuing to
travel despite the hazardous road conditions. Give snow plows and
crews plenty of room to work to keep conditions safe for everyone,
and be sure to thank them for their hard work!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

None of our CWA has yet to see snow from this morning`s approaching
clipper system. But, a swath of light snow should begin within the
next couple of hours over western MN and gradually spread east into
central MN and then WI throughout this morning. Onset of snow for
the Twin Cities will begin near 7 AM while WI will be closer to 8-9
AM. Latest CAMs have trended slightly farther south such that the
snow swath looks to track along I-94, with most areas within the
swath looking to receive 1-2". Areas very close to I-94 have the
potential to see amounts closer to 3" if some frontogenetical
forcing can produce briefly heavier snowfall rates. This system
should exit to the east of MN by late afternoon and our WI counties
this evening. This morning`s commute shouldn`t be impacted too
significantly but this afternoon`s commute will likely be quite slow
with the freshly fallen snow. Farther south, a dusting to a half
inch is possible. Even some spurts of freezing drizzle may occur
over southwestern MN as forecast soundings show loss of saturation
within the DGZ. Temperatures will continue to climb into this
afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 20s with even some
lower 30s in southwest MN.

Cold air following today`s clipper will cause Friday night`s lows to
drop into the single digits. Highs Saturday will only be in the
teens as the next wave within our clipper train arrives later in the
day. Latest guidance has trended a bit farther south with this
shortwave (the 00Z HREF shows the 700 hPa low near FSD/SUX by
Saturday evening) such that the heaviest snow potential is looking
to be more confined FSD and DMX`s CWAs. Still, longer-range CAMs and
deterministic models do show the northern periphery of the clipper`s
snow band passing over our southern MN counties Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. Guidance consensus snowfall amounts range
between 1-3" with a possibility of up to 4", particularly along I-
90. A Winter Weather Advisory has not been issued yet but could see
one being warranted in future updates.

Cold air will once again follow Saturday`s clipper system with
negative single digit lows likely over western MN Saturday night and
then area wide Sunday night. While highs Sunday will reach the mid
single digits to mid teens, just enough north/northwesterly flow
could mean wind chills struggle to exceed 0 as surface high pressure
moves overhead. Highs Monday will rebound into the 20s as WAA occurs
ahead of the next forecast shortwave within the northwesterly flow.
This next wave should arrive during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
and looks quite interesting for our region. This wave will have more
of a Pacific origin such that EPS mean forecast PWAT anomaly reaches
200% of normal as the shortwave passes through the Northern Plains.
This system will need monitoring as it will be essentially a clipper
system working with the remnants of an atmospheric river. Greater
amounts of QPF would be more likely with this system, but surface
low placement will also be important as temperatures could get
pretty warm on the south side of the low leading to possible precip
type uncertainties. After moderating temperatures mid-next week,
long-range guidance favors another shot of cold air late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Snow is gradually coming to an end this afternoon across the
area. Some terminals are even rising into VFR, but MVFR will be
more likely as snow comes to an end. Some IFR will be seen as
snow is still falling, but a quick improvement is expected as
it comes to an end. Later in the afternoon into this evening
lower MVFR into high IFR ceilings are expected, before VFR
becomes more widespread overnight. Another snow system is
expected tomorrow, but the heaviest snow is expected to the
south of the terminals. RWF and MKT are most likely to see snow
and as the forecast starts to come into better focus, more
impacts will be added to those TAFs.

KMSP... Light snow will continue for much of the afternoon, but
the main accumulation phase has ended. This will be mainly a MVFR
visibility impact for the last few hours of this light snow.
More snow will arrive across southern Minnesota tomorrow. How
far north this snow gets, and therefore impacts to MSP, is
still uncertain. With this uncertainty opted to keep the TAF
dry, but if the northern solution were to win out the timing of
the snow would be in the evening and could impact the later part
of the rush period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Likely VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...MVFR cigs. Chc -SN. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -SN. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TDH
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...NDC