579
FXUS63 KMPX 032056
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
256 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread sub-zero temperatures tonight. Wind chills as cold as
  -20 to -25 across western MN.

- A clipper will bring the next chance of light snow Friday
  morning. Minor accumulations possible.

- Another system will slide through the region Saturday and
  looks to bring a better chance of accumulating snow (greatest
  potential across southern MN).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

On a normal day, one may think that the departure of morning
flurries and stratus would signal warming temperatures -- however,
that is not the case today! In fact, today`s high temperatures were
observed after midnight and have gradually dropped following the
passage of a cold front. This trend will continue through tonight as
an expansive ~1030s mb Arctic high builds in from the northwest. The
coldest night of the season-to-date will send dinnertime surface
temperatures in the single digits to well below zero prior to
daybreak Thursday. Our latest forecast features morning lows
between -5 to -7 in the TC metro and -10 to -12 for much of the
rest of the forecast area. Wind chills will dip to between -15
to -25, though fortunately the presence of the surface high will
promote light winds and limit colder apparent temperatures
tonight. The forecast keeps STC/MSP/EAU above the current 12/4
minT record values, but with clear skies and the presence of a
snowpack it will be worth watching temperature observations
closely!

The center of the surface high is progged to move southeast over
Iowa tomorrow. At the same time, a clipper within the broad
northwesterly upper-level flow will dig southeast towards
northern MN. Breezy southerly return flow to the northwest of
the surface high and mid-level thermal ridging within the
clipper`s "warm sector" will work in tandem to bring a steady
warming trend that begins after daybreak tomorrow and continues
all the way through Friday. In other words, Thursday afternoon`s
temperatures in the low teens will be cooler than Friday
morning`s temperatures in the low 20s, which are forecast to
continue warming into the upper 20s through midday Friday. The
initial warm advective precip shield ahead of the clipper will
likely setup across northeastern MN, largely missing our forecast
area. However, we`ll look to the trailing cold front to set the
stage for a higher PoP/low QPF winter precip scenario Friday
morning and afternoon. This is the type of setup that is poorly
handled by the guidance, so it`s not a surprise to see a lack of
QPF from the NBM. We collaborated with neighboring offices to
introduce a few hundredths of liquid into the grids by way of
WPC`s blend, which supports a coating to a half inch of snow
accumulation. In other words, we may see just enough snow Friday
to add a few more slick spots on the roads (similar to what we
saw today). For now our ~40 PoPs are satisfactory, but would
look for those to increase significantly should precip trends
continue.

The active northwesterly flow pattern will send another shortwave
along a remnant baroclinic zone (progged to setup from eastern
MT to western IA) Saturday morning. This track is quite a bit
farther south than the Friday clipper and would support a swath
of snow over the Dakotas/the southern half of MN/northern IA.
Despite the track of the wave taking on the clipper appearance,
this system is a bit different in that it will likely have
better moisture (Pacific influence/PacLow archetype). Still some
questions in how far north/south the heaviest QPF axis will be
and there are generally two "camps" in the guidance -- one that
produces snow across south central MN/northern IA (EPS) and one
that illustrates the best snow chances farther south (GEFS/GEPS).
We have some time to work out the details, but it is worth
noting that various deterministic and machine learning solutions
support something closer to the EPS mean than the GEFS/GEPS
blend. Should the northerly camp come to fruition, the setup
would support the potential for at least a few inches (or more)
of accumulating snow Saturday, with the highest amounts across
southern MN and lower amounts as you head north towards I-94.

Another blast of sub-zero Canadian air will flow into the Upper
Midwest following Saturday`s shortwave. Latest NBM appears to have a
much better handle on the depth of the cold air, with sub-zero lows
now reflected both Sunday and Monday morning. By this point you`re
probably tired of hearing "Another system will develop within the
northwest flow..." however that is indeed the case come early next
week (and likely beyond!). Guidance advertises another shortwave
digging into the northern Plains Tuesday, with an associated surface
low forecast to track from northwest to southeast over Lake Superior.
This track places the majority of the NWS MPX forecast area on the
warm side of the storm system, which is evidenced by the expansion
of a thermal ridge over the region Tuesday. This evolution will
bring a brief reprieve from the coldest air, as warm advection
aims to support temperatures climbing back into the upper
20s/lower 30s Tuesday & Wednesday. However, with temperatures
near the freezing mark (and 850mb T`s likely climbing above
freezing), we could be talking about p-type issues once the low
draws near and precipitation chances increase. Given that this
storm is towards the end of the forecast period, did not want to
advertise a freezing rain scenario in the grids just yet as the
forecast will likely undergo some shifting over the weekend.
However, if the current consensus were to verify we would likely
have more of a messy p-type forecast on our hands heading into
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Satellite shows clearing across most of the area as stratus
recedes to the south, leaving us SKC at all sites at or before
00z with EAU taking the longest to clear out. The flurries and
-SN will be gone with the stratus, with SKC continuing through
 most of the period until FEW/SCT250 returns by the final few
 hours. Winds begin stronger with 10-15kt sustained gusting to
 20-23kts, decreasing to less than 5kts overnight.

KMSP...MVFR to start the TAF will quickly erode as satellite
indicates only an hour or two of stratus remaining, and the
stratus already scattering out at that. Gusts to around 20-23kts
will gradually wind down towards 00z as winds shift towards
200-230 by end of period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind W 5-10kts.
SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...MVFR/-SN early. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...TDH