676
FXUS63 KMPX 061732
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1132 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow expected to arrive around midday today in western MN,
  spreading southeast into early Sunday morning. Several inches
  of snow accumulation are possible in southern MN with lower
  amounts to the north.

- Cold and dry to end the weekend with highs only in the single
  digits in MN on Sunday.

- A couple of chances of snow the first half of next week, with
  the most significant chance being Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Cloudy skies have limited how much we`ve cooled off overnight with
temperatures still in the upper teens to lower 20s early this
morning. Temperatures won`t warm much today as overcast skies will
remain. The clipper system for Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night is the main concern in the short-term. With the latest
guidance tracking the 700 hPa low from YNK/FSD to DSM, have leaned
heavily to a more southern solution with the prevailing swath of
snow. The ECMWF and ECMWF-AIFS are both in this camp and the ECMWF-
AIFS has done remarkably well with other snowfall events so far this
winter. Our latest forecast gives 4-6" across extreme southern MN, 1-
2" on a line from CNB-RWF-MKT-FBL, and then an inch or less to the
north (includes the Twin Cities). Have opted to keep headlines the
same, though, the northern-most tier of counties in the Winter
Weather Advisory are flirting with not being warranted.
Snowfall rates could reach 1-1.5" per hour, particularly along
I-90 and south, but luckily this system will be moving from west
to east pretty quickly such that these higher rates will only
last an hour or two. Snow should end pretty quickly from west to
east early Sunday morning as the clipper moves into the
Midwest.

Cold air will immediately follow the clipper with Saturday night`s
lows dropping to -10 F in western MN to near 0 in west-central WI.
Northerly winds will be just enough that western MN should see wind
chills near -20 F by sunrise Sunday. Sunday will be dry as surface
high pressure slides overhead but temperatures will struggle to warm
with highs only reaching the single digits in MN. Low to mid teens
are forecast for our WI counties. Another cold night is expected
Sunday night with lows within 5 degrees of 0. Low-level WAA will
begin Monday as the next clipper in the wave train approaches.
Temperatures will moderate Monday with highs in the 20s to even
lower 30s possible in western MN. Guidance favors the track of the
aforementioned clipper passing from northern MN into WI. This track
would keep most of the snow to our north, but our northern and
northeastern counties could see a dusting to perhaps an inch of snow
by Tuesday morning.

While Monday`s clipper doesn`t appear to be too significant, the
clipper forecast Tuesday into Tuesday night continues to be the one
to monitor in the long-range. Deterministic guidance shows a compact
shortwave with a strong mid-level vorticity maximum following an
upper-level jetstreak. A deepening surface low should evolve
ahead of these features, tracking southeast from ND into MN and
then WI. Exactly where remains in question, but the EPS has
trended with a deeper trough and a more southern low track over
the last several runs. I-94 and areas north would be favored for
accumulating snow with this solution. The EPS-AIFS is even
slightly farther south compared to the EPS, driving the swath
of snow through the heart of our CWA. Meanwhile, the GEFS is
much farther north with the surface low track but has been
coming around to a deeper upper-level trough in recent runs. We
will continue to watch this system as we could either get a
quick thump of accumulating (to potentially significant) snow.
Or, the surface low could be far enough north (like the GEFS
solution) to where we are stuck in mild, above freezing
temperatures. Following this system, guidance favors another
blast of cold air for the latter half of next week with strong
surface high pressure sliding southeast from the western
Canadian Prairies. A break from our more active pattern looks
like a good possibility Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The heaviest snow with this system will track across Iowa & SW
Minnesota. Lighter snow up into southern MN and RWF/MKT areas
with a few inches of accumulation. Latest radar & guidance
trends look to keep MSP and terminals north mostly dry. I have
kept a period of MVFR snow in at MSP for now. Late tonight,
skies are expected to clear out from west to east. For winds,
speeds will be under 10 kts this period. We`ll see directions
become NNE this morning, turning back to the NNW overnight.

KMSP...Recent obs upstream show light snow, but radar trends
indicate the primary system across SW MN will remain to the
south of MSP terminal. There is still a window of light snow
likely, falling between the 21z to 4z window. Accumulations
appear to be less than half an inch of new snow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late night. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...MVFR cigs. Chc -SN in mrng. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15 kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Blue
     Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-
     Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BPH