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FXUS63 KMPX 292047
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
247 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing snowstorm will slowly wind down through the evening.
  No major deviations from the forecast occurring with this one.

- Colder than normal conditions continue through the first week
  of December, with the first widespread sub-zero morning of the
  season looking likely Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a classic mid-latitude
cyclone over the central CONUS. Here in MN and WI, we`re within the
well defined baroclinic leaf of this system. We have broad ascent
across the area, but the cold cloud tops and convective look to the
clouds has been down in Iowa, where we`ve seen some intense
mesoscale bands of snow. This broad shield of light to moderate snow
for up here was well forecast. From what reports we`ve gotten so far
(4.5" through 2pm at Albert Lea is a good example), it`s looking
like we`re heading toward a ceiling of 8-9 inches down along the I-
90 corridor. Up in the Twin Cities, we`re looking at 3 or 4 inches
for the south metro, with amounts closer to 2 inches in the north
metro. Out in WI, 4 or 5 inches looks to be a reasonable final
number for when all is said and done. What will eventually put an
end to this snow is the h5 trough currently dropping into eastern
NoDak from southern Canada. Subsidence in the wake of this trough
will quickly cut off the snow, with the only potential for snow
Sunday into Sunday night being the possibility for flurries with any
lingering cloud cover, as those clouds will be completely within the
DGZ.

Through mid-December, if northwest flow and cold temperatures are
your jam, you will love the vibe MN and WI will be giving off. This
pattern will also likely feature plenty of snow falling, though it
won`t add up to much. It`s a clipper train type of pattern, but one
of those where we`ll likely nickle and dime our way to 3-6 inches of
snow through the first half of December. As for temperatures, we`ll
have two challenges. First, we`re running 4 to 5 degrees above
normal through the fall, which means any bias corrections will now
have a high bias, as those biases were developed in a very different
environment that didn`t include the snowpack we now have. We will
likely have to get through most of the second week of December to de-
bias the bias corrected data.

As for some specifics, the coldest period of the next week will be
Wednesday through Wednesday night behind a strong cold front that
will blow through here Tuesday night. Besides the high moving in,
skies Wednesday night may end up pretty clear, with the NBM showing
lows Thursday morning below zero for the entire MPX area, with some
double digit below zero lows in central MN. Depending on what
happens with cloud cover, these still may not be cold enough. From a
climatology perspective, MSP averages December 10th for seeing the
first sub-zero low of the season, so this would be about a week
earlier than normal and the earliest we`ve gone below zero since
Thanksgiving morning in 2014 saw a low of -4.

Looking at precipitation, we`ll be near the tracks for a clipper
wave train for the next week+. The first chance for some light snow
will come with the front Tuesday night, then there`s a clipper that
looks to stay mainly to our north Thursday, then another for
Saturday, another early to mid the following week. Hopefully you get
the idea, lots of chances for snow, but in all instances 0.25" of
QPF would be the top end of what we could expect from any wave, so a
nickle and dime approach to building our seasonal snow total.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Going TAFs were in pretty good shape. Main thing is that for the
rest of the afternoon, we`re in a pretty steady state, with
3/4sm to 2sm snow expected for the first 6 hours of the period.
Improvements in vis really don`t start to expand quickly until
after 3z. CIGs will largely remain MVFR during the snow. Lower
confidence on how cigs evolve going into Sunday morning. Most of
the CAMs are pretty optimistic on cigs improving late tonight
behind the snow, though RAP soundings would say we remain socked
in the strato-cu through Sunday, so leaned into the cloudy
scenario for the end of the period.

KMSP...We will likely see a vis occasionally bump down to
3/4sm, confidence on any windows in the first 8 hours of the TAF
where vis that low are more likely to occur was too low to
include any TEMPOs, with a general 1-2sm snow expected to fall
through about 5z. We will have a cross wind through most of the
first 6 hours though they will be switching to the west of due
north after 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR chc IFR cigs late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...MVFR chc IFR cigs. Chc -sn overnight. Wind SW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR cigs likely. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Carver-
     Chippewa-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-
     Meeker-Ramsey-Renville-Scott-Sibley-Swift-Washington-
     Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Steele-
     Waseca-Watonwan.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for Goodhue-Le
     Sueur-Rice.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...MPG