369
FXUS63 KMPX 011806
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
106 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued above average temperatures with chances for showers
  and thunderstorms late Wednesday into the weekend.

- Temperatures late in the forecast period look to be in the mid
  to upper 80s with dew points in the mid 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

his morning`s isolated showers and storms have cleared and
temperatures are sitting in the low to mid 70s. Conditions will
remain dry through tomorrow before widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances return. An upper low will track across the
North Dakota/Canadian border Wednesday, with showers and storms
developing out ahead of the associated cold front. The eastern
Dakotas will see the bulk of any stronger thunderstorm activity
with the timing of the front lining up with peak daytime
heating. In any case, this front will continue to move eastward
into Thursday morning before stalling out across central
Minnesota. Thursday and Friday will see continued chances for
widespread showers and storms. A broad swath of QPF amounts
around a half inch are expected through this time period with
embedded higher totals nearing an inch. This cloud cover and
rainfall should also work to tamp down highs, particularly
Thursday, but overall temperatures should still end up slightly
above normal. Will need to watch for the potential for some
strong to severe storms Friday with ample instability and
another shortwave passing through, but there`s still a fair
amount of spread in the guidance for the timing of this feature.

Heading into the second half of the weekend, ridging slowly builds
back in, allowing for drier and warmer conditions to return. Highs
in the mid to upper 80s to near 90s are expected by the end of the
forecast period, along with Tds well into the 60s. Looking ahead,
the pattern will likely remain fairly active with a chance to make
some progress on rainfall deficits across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

MVFR stratocumulus should continue to develop across west-
central MN this afternoon as daytime heating continues. However,
cigs should lift to VFR by 21-22z as the boundary layer deepens
from mixing. Any low to mid-level clouds should dissipate this
evening with the loss of heating. VFR is expected the remainder
of the period with only high clouds on Tuesday. Easterly to
southeasterly winds will remain steady overnight but turn more
southeasterly area-wide and increase in speed during Tuesday
morning. Gusts could reach 20 knots in western MN late Tuesday
morning.

KMSP...VFR is expected the entire period. Easterly winds will
persist until about 02z Tuesday before becoming more
southeasterly.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.
THU...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...CTG