615
FXUS63 KMPX 040601
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
101 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like weather will continue through this weekend, with
  near record highs and lows through Sunday.

- Windy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday with gusts of 35
  to 45 mph.

- Much cooler next week with areas of frost possible Tuesday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Morning clouds continue to dissipate, but a narrow band of brief
showers remains ongoing north of the metro. The clouds and
showers will continue to break up and shouldn`t last more than
an hour or so in any given location going forward. In the wake
of the cloud cover, temperatures have started to skyrocket
across southern and western MN and St. James reached 90 as early
as 1215 PM. Other readings early this afternoon are in the mid
to upper 80s, so there`s little doubt we`re going to have
widespread low 90s later this afternoon west of I-35. This is
well in line with mixing down 925 mb temps of +26 to +27C and
meets or exceeds the NBM 95th percentile. It`s the same story
Saturday, perhaps a degree or two warmer, so I wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few locations reach the mid 90s across
western MN.

Light southerly winds are in place now, but they will begin
increasing overnight as a low level jet develops from the
southern High Plains to MN ahead of an approaching trough. A
45-50 kt LLJ streak will scoot overhead Saturday afternoon.
Mixing is expected to deepen to just below that level. While
there will be near continuous 30-35 kt gusts, rogue gusts
greater 40 kts are also possible.

A potent surface low will track from central SD to northwest
MN Saturday night. A trailing cold front will reach western MN
late Sunday morning and the I-35 corridor late afternoon or
early evening. The thermal ridge won`t be as impressive as
Saturday, although there remains good potential for strong
heating just prior to the front. It won`t be as hot, but gusty
winds will continue. Models have also become a bit more
optimistic for some showers and storms to develop along the
front from mid afternoon onward, and despite the dry boundary
later, forecast soundings do show modest surface-based
instability.

Much cooler and drier air will arrive behind the front and
surface high pressure will build in Monday and Tuesday. The high
appears a little weaker and not centered overhead Tuesday night
as it was yesterday, so the risk of a widespread frost or freeze
is also lower. Still, lows in the 30s and 40s with patchy frost
will be a big change from this weekend. The high will move off
to the east for later next week and southerly flow will return.
Temperatures should return back to above normal levels with 70s
(and even some 80s per ECMWF) not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

SKC to SCT250 and VFR across all locations throughout the
period. The primary concern will be gusty southerly winds
increasing to 15-20kts and gusting from 30-35+kts predominately after
17-18z. LLWS will also be a concern as the stronger winds
arrive as the system approaches from the west. Overall
weaker/lower duration LLWS for eastern TAF sites. LLWS of 45kts
has been introduced on the back end of the period beginning
around 0Z Sunday at all sites.


KMSP...LLWS still included through 12z and sustained winds from
15-20kts after 17z. Late period includes another round of LLWS
to 45kts beginning 0Z Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 15-20G30-35kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15G30 bcmg NW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Record lows/highs for this weekend:

SAT SUN

MSP68/89 63/88
STC64/8858/89
EAU67/86 64/84

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...PV
CLIMATE...PV