260
FXUS63 KMPX 092052
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong system to bring an intense and narrow band of heavy snow
this afternoon and evening along and north of the I-94 corridor. The
rain/snow line has shifted slightly southwest of the Twin Cities
metro, with a strong snowfall gradient expected from southwest to
northeast across the metro.

- A Winter Weather Advisory issued across southwestern Minnesota
tonight until Wednesday morning for strong winds up to 55mph,
blowing snow, and reduced visibilities.

- A 2-4 hour period of freezing rain/drizzle potential wrapping up
along and just south of the I-94 corridor as precipitation initially
moves in through the rest of this afternoon.

- Strong winds are expected tonight southwest of the low`s track,
with gusts of 30-40 mph possible south of the I-94 corridor. Falling
snow with strong winds could lead to reduced visibilities,
especially across southwestern Minnesota.

- Multiple chances of light snow will be possible Wednesday through
Saturday. Only minor accumulations would occur with any additional
snowfall we see after today.

- Very cold temperatures settle in by this weekend with wind
  chills approaching cold weather advisory criteria Friday night
  and Saturday night.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A mixed bag of wintry precipitation continues to make its way east
into Minnesota this afternoon. Radar imagery shows the line of
winter weather extending from Little Falls down through the TC Metro
to near Red Wing. Latest mesoscale analysis showing that 850-700mb
forcing is lagging a bit still near MN/Dakotas border, however it is
still expected that this region of mid-level forcing will make its
way east over the next several hours and produce heavy snowfall
rates in excess of 1"/hr along and north of the I-94 corridor. Using
the latest trends in forecast guidance, another nudge south was made
to snowfall amounts leaving areas mainly along the I-94 corridor
including the TC metro in the 2-4 inch range whereas areas north and
east of the I-94 corridor could see up to 5-7 inches.

Farther to the southwest of the main snowfall region is the warm
sector of this system which is located over western and southern MN.
Concerns for a short 2 to 4hr period continue for a region of
freezing rain. Warm advection this afternoon will raise
temperatures into the mid 30s especially south of the MN River
Valley and along the Buffalo Ridge which aligns with freezing rain
is already being reported in those areas. Given where confidence was
strongest for warm advection reach, adjusted forecast mentions of
freezing precip east towards a line that extends west from Grant
County in western MN down through Filmore County in southeastern
Minnesota. The main precip shield clears southern Minnesota this
evening, which then provides a short lull of mainly drizzle or
freezing drizzle and then transitions to all snow overnight. Overall
ice accumulations of a light glaze can be expected.

the next "segment" of this system that follows quickly in tow of our
snow/freezing rain mentions is the increased wind speeds across the
area. As of now, winds along and north of the I-94 corridor will be
breezy with 30-35mph wind gusts however in areas south and west of
the MN River Valley, are expected to reach 50 to 55 mph overnight.
These winds, combined with falling snow will lead to rapid
reductions in visibility, thus went with a strongly worded Winter
Weather Advisory for southwestern Minnesota starting tonight until
Wednesday morning. Regardless, gusty winds, blowing snow, and
recently falling freezing precipitation will make for difficult
travel conditions this evening through tonight. So try to avoid
being out on the roads if possible or allow for extra travel time.

Most snowfall is expected to end Wednesday around sunrise, perhaps a
band or two of deformation snow may develop on the back side the
departing low mid-Wednesday morning however additional accumulation
from that episode of snow would amount to less than a half-inch.
Gusty winds will also weaken as our previous low distances itself
away from the northern plains. Forecast highs Wednesday into the
lower 20s Wednesday and then the teens on Thursday. Another system
does encroach on the northern plains Thursday into Friday however
this one looking much less impressive than today`s system. Luckily,
the p-type for this event favors all snow with accumulations up to
an inch or two across southern Minnesota.

As we enter the weekend, the forecast turns cold. Forecast highs
Saturday and Sunday will range a degree or two above or below zero
with wind chills ranging well below zero. Cold weather advisory
headlines may potentially be needed as wind chills reach
-25 to -30 below zero Saturday Night. As we enter next week, the
 cold blast looks to be short lived as h850 5-Day Temp Anomalies
 jump right back up to 10-15 degrees above normal hinting that a
 potential winter warm-up could be on the horizon by that time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Very complex forecast this afternoon & evening, mainly relating
to where the rain/snow/ice transition line will setup this
afternoon & how the track of the low pressure center will impact
winds speeds this evening.

Generally, precipitation will spread from western Minnesota
into eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin through the
afternoon. Maybe a 30 minutes to an hour of freezing drizzle or
a wintry mix is possible as the precipitation begins, but that
will quickly change over to snow. The snow will be heaviest
across central Minnesota, where a few hours of visibility below
1 SM & rates around 1"/hr are likely. Across southern Minnesota
(RWF/MKT), the snow will likely change back over to rain, then
potentially end completely as a dry slot moves over the region.

The greatest uncertainty lies between these two areas (MSP/EAU),
which will light right along the transition zone from snow to
rain along with the edge of the dry slot. A few hours of
moderate to heavy snow looks likely this afternoon into early
evening, but precipitation then likely transitions to a light
rain/snow mix, or even ends completely this evening. Eventually,
light snow returns late tonight along with gusty northwest
winds as the warp-around region of the system moves through the
area. This snow ends during the early morning hours, with
another round of lights snow looking likely from mid-morning
into early afternoon.

Winds are very complex with this system, owing to uncertainty
with the track of the surface low over the area. This
afternoon, winds will remain southeasterly to southerly with
speeds between 10-20 kts. As the surface low tracks over central
Minnesota & western Wisconsin this evening, winds will likely
become light & variable for a few hours (STC/MSP/RNH/EAU).
Tonight, gusty northwest winds develop as the system exits the
area, with gusts of 40-50 kts across southwest Minnesota
(RWF/MKT) & generally 25-30 kts elsewhere. A few hours of LLWS
is also likely this evening before the gusty Northwest winds
develop late tonight, with northwest shear around 50 kts at
FL020. The winds will be strongest late tonight into a few hours
after midnight, then gradually decrease closer to 20 kts into
the morning.

KMSP...Very uncertain forecast regarding the details, as
discussed above. Could see roughly half an hour of freezing
drizzle at the onset of precipitation between 2-3 PM, but this
only cause light glazing on untreated surfaces. Moderate to
heavy snow should quickly develop by 3-4 PM, with visibility
likely below 1 SM & snowfall rates around 0.5" to 3/4"/hr. It
remains uncertain how long this moderate to heavy snow will
last, as a sharp cutoff with the dry slot of this system will
setup somewhere over the Twin Cities metro. Best forecast for
now suggests that the snow will begin tapering off by 6-7PM,
when precipitation will either transition to a light rain/snow
mix or end completely for a few hours. A second round of light
snow then returns late tonight, likely 10-11 PM, which will
have lighter rates, but gustier winds resulting in visibilities
down to around 1-2 SM.

Winds this evening are probably the most uncertain part of the
forecast. Confidence is high in SE to S winds into this evening
with gusts around 20 kts early this evening. It then looks
increasingly likely that winds will become variable for several
hours tonight as the low moves overhead with speeds generally
below 10 kts. Northwest winds then develop late tonight with
the second round of snow, with northwest winds gusting to 25-30
kts into tomorrow morning. During the time of the likely lull in
winds at MSP, very gusty northwest winds will develop in the
dry slot across southern Minnesota, & these winds could extend
into the southern Twin Cities metro. While it seems unlikely at
the moment that we will see these surface gusts at the terminal,
a few hours of LLWS is likely with W to SW shear of 50-55 kts
in the lowest 2000-3000 ft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Douglas-
     Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton-
     Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne-Todd-
     Washington.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-
     Renville-Sibley-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Carver-
     Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Steele.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Pepin-
     Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...ETA