090
FXUS63 KMPX 221137
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
537 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today and Sunday, with cooling temperatures through
  midweek before much colder temps arrive after Thanksgiving.

- Rain likely Monday, with rain transitioning to snow on
  Tuesday. Snow amount potential on Tuesday will depend on how
  quickly temperatures fall and rain transitions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A quiet morning across Minnesota and western Wisconsin with some
lower-mid level cloud cover over the eastern half of Minnesota and
all of western Wisconsin, which has kept temps a bit warmer than
last night generally in the low 30s. There are spots that haven`t
seen as much cloud cover that are in the 20s, primarily in areas of
western WI where the clouds have just reached as of around 2am and
enough cooling has already taken place. High temperatures are
expected to reach the low to mid 50s today as efficient mixing under
mostly sunny skies will also give us some breezy southwesterly to
westerly winds. It will be a great day to tackle the last of the
outdoor prep work before winter as much colder temperatures are
expected by this time next weekend, with tomorrow potentially being
our last 50 degree day for the next few months. Sunday will overall
be similar to Saturday as the surface high pushes southeast towards
the Ohio Valley, with surface and low level WAA with southerly to
southwesterly winds.

As the high pressure slides southeast, a developing upper level
trough looks to occlude over the east-central Rockies as it moves
into the west-central plains, with broad forcing ahead of the
incoming trough expected to bring scattered to widespread rain
showers on Monday. Guidance has remained consistent bringing rain
showers as early as 8-9am to southern MN, spreading over most of the
MPX CWA by midday as a surface low begins to develop as the trough
occlusion wraps around and tilts northeast by Monday evening.
Guidance has varying strength and slight differences in position of
the surface low by Tuesday morning, however most keep it situated
over the general area between Duluth and the UP over Lake Superior.
This would allow for northerly winds pulling down much colder air
over the 850-700mb layer, eventually cooling things down to the DGZ
which would allow a transition from rain to snow as the showers
continue into early Wednesday. Given the subtle differences in model
timing and position of the surface low, there are differing
solutions on just how much snow ends up falling as the differences
account for 3-6 hours of difference in colder air sliding into the
region. A faster transition while the strong forcing from the upper
level trough is still present would obviously result in more snow,
which is the favored solution by the GFS/GEFS which keeps the
surface low farther west and brings colder air to the area quicker
than the ECMWF/CFS. Until there is some better agreement on the
position of the potential surface low any talk of snow amounts will
have to wait as we still have some active weather to deal with ahead
of it. The forcing generally diminishes as the upper level trough
moves over the Great Lakes through Wednesday and into Thursday, with
some significant cold air intrusion into the northern plains during
this window which will help crash temperatures by Thanksgiving down
into the teens for lows and 20s for highs. This colder air generally
gets locked into place with some of the longer range guidance
showing even colder temperatures to follow after Thanksgiving
weekend and into early December. Be somewhat wary of the worst of
the cold solutions if you see them advertised elsewhere as the
coldest solutions would all but require a significant snowstorm
ahead of it, which is beyond the scope of what we can have any
confidence in right now. Regardless, high temperatures struggling to
get out of the teens is not out of the question for the first week
of December as the cold air remains locked in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Mid to high level clouds will pass through this morning, then
clear skies for the rest of the period. South winds will become
west and could gust to 20 kts this afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind W to SE 5kts.
MON...VFR to MVFR, PM -SHRA. Wind SE 5kts.
TUE...MVFR, chc -RASN. Wind NW 10-20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Borghoff