916
FXUS63 KMPX 090450
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1050 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers possible in Wisconsin on Sunday.

- Cold snap continues through Monday before warming back to
  near/above normal for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

At 230 PM, radar continues to show some light snow or flurries
across southern MN. Trends have been improving during the last
couple of hours as the system in Iowa continues to push east.
Visibilities are now generally 2+ miles, so any accumulating
snow has likely ended. Some surface obs have also reported a bit
of light rain or drizzle mixing in where temperatures are in the
upper 30s. Otherwise, temperatures have been steady in the low
to mid 30s across the region. All precipitation will end by
late afternoon. A 1040 mb high will build into the Plains and
eastern Rockies for Sunday. Winds will increase tonight as the
high approaches due to a tightening pressure gradient. Gusts of
25 to 35 mph are likely Sunday, which combined with highs only
in the upper 20s to lower 30s will make it feel more like the
teens. Cyclonic flow will linger across eastern MN and WI into
Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings are saturated in the DGZ
with steep lapse rates through that layer, so there may be some
isolated/scattered snow shower or flurry development. The
boundary layer will be dry, thus some of the weaker showers may
not reach the ground. Whether or not they reach the ground,
little or no impacts are expected.

Cold temperatures will linger into Monday, then high will
weaken and slide into the southeastern U.S. for midweek.
Return flow will quickly bring moderating temperatures as early
as Monday night and Tuesday. A mild Pacific airmass will remain
in place for the rest of next week as the storm track shifts
back north into Canada. By next weekend, a stronger system
traversing southern Canada will bring a cold front east across
the Plains next weekend. A healthier push of warm air lifting
north ahead of the front could bring temperatures back into the
60s next Saturday, with 70s not out of the question just to the
south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The deck of low VFR CIGS in central MN will move south over all
the TAF sites within the first 6-12 hours, with clear skies
behind it expected to become SCT high clouds and remain VFR in
the middle of the day Sunday. Some wrap around cosmetic flurries
are possible from roughly 14-20z alongside a drop back down to
BKN/OVC low VFR with a small probability of high MVFR above
2500ft. Winds are expected to remain sustained around 10kts
overnight, increasing to 12-15kts gusting from 25-30kts at times
and remaining at 300-360 through the period. Winds and gusts
diminish after 00z.

KMSP...Expecting to remain VFR with a less than 10% chance of
flurries and no accumulation expected. Winds will be the main
concern aside from low VFR CIGS with occasional gusts exceeding
25kts after 15z through around 22-23z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S bcmg WNW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...TDH