386
FXUS63 KMQT 101758
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1258 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers ramp up across the north, then
  northwest wind snow belts behind an exiting winter storm,
  persisting through Thursday. Snow totals today through
  Thursday peak at around 2-4" over the N and NW wind snow belts
  of the north-central and eastern UP.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for much of Lake Superior
  through this evening.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the forecast
  period. Low temperatures in the single digits and even below
  zero are possible late this week into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Early this morning, our deep Clipper low is centered over southeast
WI and southern Lake Michigan, with a tight baroclinic zone draped
over central WI. IR imagery and radar returns indicate a swath of
snow along and just north of this zone, with a sharp cutoff to the
south given the drier midlevel air curling in. We, however, remain
north of pretty much all of this "system" snow, with just Menominee
county being impacted by light snowfall. Some light radar returns
over Superior are beginning to migrate into the north-central UP
with winds turning to the NE as the low continues to track eastward
into the Lower Peninsula this morning. Snow accumulations before
sunrise should be rather light, generally an inch or less in both
our developing lake effect and the lingering light snow over
Menominee county. However, with some upsloping, the north-central UP
may see some higher totals up to 1-2 inches.

As winds continue to back to the N and NW today, expect lake effect
snow to shift accordingly to those associated snow belts and persist
through Thursday. With dry midlevel air working in, our highest
accumulations will be over the north-central and then eastern UP
courtesy of the longer fetch over Superior. That said, significant,
problematic, headline-worthy snow totals are not expected. Totals
today through Thursday will be highest across the higher terrain of
the north-central UP (with upslope enhancement today), and across
Alger, northern Schoolcraft, and northern Luce counties. In these
areas, expect a general 2-4 inches. Elsewhere, LES should only drop
as much as 1-2in of snow through Thursday.

Otherwise, expect winds to turn rather gusty today; N to NW wind
gusts of 20-25mph will be common by mid-morning, and stronger gusts
of 30mph or even higher will be possible across the Keweenaw and
nearer to Lake Superior. Winds decrease into the evening.
Temperatures largely hold steady in the upper teens to lower 20s
today, falling back to the lower/mid teens tonight before rebounding
into the low/mid 20s Thursday.

Models continue to hint at another clipper traversing the area later
on Friday, but this system does not look particularly impactful in
terms of snow amounts at this time. Another shot of arctic air will
move into the area this weekend in the wake of this system as 850 mb
temps plummet to -20 to -25C by early Sunday. This will correspond
to daytime highs in the single digits to low teens and overnight
lows flirting with below zero readings for Saturday and Sunday.
Another clipper may then approach the region early next week, but
models continue to differ greatly with respect to strength,
progression, and timing of this feature.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Lake effect snow showers continue out of the north through this
afternoon, however vis restrictions are no longer expected at
IWD/CMX through tonight. SAW will initially vary between IFR/MVFR
vis into this afternoon before heavier snow showers shift to the
east. That said, potential for vis restrictions persist at SAW into
tonight and return at CMX early on Thursday as winds shift
northwest. Primarily MVFR cigs are expected through the 18Z TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Strong low pressure is moving over Lake Michigan early this morning,
and tracks across the Lower Peninsula today. NE winds are already
picking up this morning, with gusts to around 25-30kts expected to
increase to gales of 35 and possibly 40kts between the Keweenaw and
Isle Royale. Gales then develop over the central and eastern
portions of the lake after daybreak while winds shift northerly,
then over to the northwest. Expect gales to fall off over the west
and central from late morning to early afternoon, but linger over
the eastern half of the lake into this evening. Winds continue to
fall back below 20kts in the west half of the lake by early
Thursday,  but 20kt gusts  are expected in the east half at least
until Thursday evening. Then expect a brief period of lighter west-
winds below 20 kt into early Friday before winds increase again
ahead of another system. This will bring renewed gale chances during
the weekend, with freezing spray concerns also increasing as a
frigid air mass moves over Lake Superior.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ249-250-266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...LC