717
FXUS63 KMQT 140026
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
826 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain continues for mainly the south half of the UP for
  the rest of the day. A few nuisance light showers are possible
  (20-40% chance) at times through the weekend.

- An active pattern then continues into next week with almost
  daily chances for rainfall (30-50% chance), although
  confidence is low on timing. The most likely period for
  showers and possibly some thunderstorms is Tuesday through
  Wednesday (50-60% chance).

- Generally below normal temperatures continue through Saturday,
  then warming back up to near normal for Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Zonal flow across the northern tier of the eastern half of the CONUS
this afternoon, with a low-amplitude shortwave tracking eastward
into northern MN. At lower levels, a rather sharp 850 mb baroclinic
zone is strung out across the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes,
with modest isentropic lift across it, generating an area of light
rain over northern WI into the UP. Meanwhile, a surface high is
located over northeastern Ontario, which is feeding dry low-level
air into the local area. The result has been a decided drier trend
for the northern half of the UP, with PoPs having been reduced in an
earlier update. Steadiest rain is still expected to be along the US-
2 corridor for the rest of the day. Late this evening into early
tonight, CAMs suggest a lull in the light precip occurs, likely due
to some subsidence in the wake of the MN wave. However, can`t rule
out a few more light showers redeveloping late tonight into Saturday
across the west and central as this subsidence exits and weak
isentropic lift resumes across the encroaching but gradually
weakening baroclinic zone. While still below normal, high temps are
expected to be several degrees warmer than Friday with a weaker
northerly component to the low-level winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Sunday, the 850 mb front continues to broaden and lift north. This
will result in an increase in deep-layer moisture with PWATs
approaching 1.25 inches, which is a standardized anomaly of +1 to +2
sigma per the NAEFS. While forcing will continue to be weak,
isolated to scattered light nuisance showers will continue to be a
possibility with weak isentropic lift continuing, and less of an
influence from the departing high. Highs will likely be a few
degrees warmer than Saturday again, still a bit below normal.

Heading into early next week, modest zonal midlevel flow continues,
with low-level moisture continuing to creep northward. PWATs stay in
the +1 to +2 sigma territory, and dewpoints reach into the 60s. Low-
amplitude waves within the zonal flow on the northern periphery of
the instability reservoir will leave us susceptible to remnants of
upstream convective episodes, with little confidence on timing of
individual episodes at this time. Some signals in the guidance
of a more notable trough crossing the Plains into the Great
Lakes by midweek, which could result in a more widespread precip
event locally. Temps near to above normal Mon/Tue (possibly
modulated by ill-timed rainfall) moderating by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 826 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions should hold steady at CMX through the TAF period.
However, deterioration to MVFR is expected early tonight in the Sat
06-09Z time frame at IWD and SAW as a disturbance passes to the
south. Will also carry a PROB30 mention for IFR cigs at IWD after
Sat 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

NE to E winds of mainly 20 kts or less continue through the weekend
as high pressure to the N extends over the lake. The exception to
this is near the Duluth Harbor where channeling NE winds may
approach 25 kts during the daytime hours today and again on Sat.
Otherwise benign disturbances/systems tracking through the region
next week keep winds mainly 20 kts or less the remainder of the
fcst. Otherwise, some thunderstorms are possible Mon afternoon
through Tue.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...Jablonski