140
FXUS63 KMQT 141122
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
722 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly this morning with frost in the interior west. A Frost
  Advisory is in effect until 9AM EDT for several counties in
  the western UP. Patchy frost is possible elsewhere across the
  interior central and east.

- Widespread rain moves into the UP from west to east late today
  through Tuesday morning. There is a general 25-60% chance for
  rainfall amounts >0.5", with the highest chances across the
  southern half of the UP.

- Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings over the
  Upper Great Lakes for tonight through Tuesday. Southerly gales
  35-40 kts turn westerly by early Tuesday afternoon. Westerly
  gusts 40-45 kts will be common with a few gusts to 50 kts
  possible (up to 50% chance) near the Keweenaw Peninsula.

- Strong westerly winds are expected Tuesday within and near the
  Keweenaw where frequent gusts of 45+ mph are possible (60-90%
  chance).

- The strong winds over the Upper Great Lakes tonight through
  Tuesday are expected to create dangerous swimming conditions
  along the Schoolcraft and Alger County shorelines on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Incoming high pressure has led to the cessation of the lake effect
rain showers over the east early this morning and has brought clear
skies overhead. This, in addition to the antecedent cool air
overhead, has allowed temperatures to drop down into the mid 30s in
portions of the interior west as of midnight EDT this morning;
expect this trend to continue as some spots potentially get into the
20s. These chilly early Fall low temperatures will create areas of
frost tonight over the interior west. Thus, a Frost Advisory is in
effect until 9AM EDT this morning for Gogebic, Ontonagon, southern
Houghton, Baraga, Iron, and Dickinson counties. While not as
widespread as the interior west early this morning, some patchy
frost is also expected in portions of the interior central and east
too, with some of the more sparsely populated areas of the interior
east potentially seeing more widespread frost in spots; however,
given that this area is heavily forested, generally not for ag. use,
and again sparsely populated, decided to not hoist up a Frost
Advisory for the southwestern interior portion of Alger County and
northeastern portion of Delta County. After sunrise this morning
though, expect the frost threat to dissipate as temperatures warm
into the 60s by this afternoon.

Expect a somewhat quiet weather day today, although that changes
come the mid-to-late afternoon hours as a warm front approaches the
area. As the warm front approaches, expect winds from the south to
pick up, with gusts up of 20 to 30 mph being seen over the interior
areas and downslopes along Lake Superior by the early evening hours.
In addition, rain showers with potentially a few rumbles of thunder
thrown in there are expected to begin moving into the western U.P.
late this afternoon/early this evening. Some of the rainfall could
be heavy at times, although no flash flooding is expected due to the
quick-hitting nature of the warm-becoming-occluding front tonight
and the ongoing drought conditions. The latest HREF shows a general
25 to 60% chance that over half an inch of rain will fall over most
of the U.P. between early this evening and Tuesday morning, with a
near 0% chance around Marquette and a near 100% chance near
Menominee. While this isn`t quite looking to be the wetting rainfall
that was hoped for yesterday morning, it does seem like it still may
be able to bring some relief to the drought conditions being seen
across much of the area.

While some gusty southerly winds of 25 to 40 mph could be seen
across the area tonight with the occluding front passing through,
expect a slight break in the winds before winds pick up from the
west behind the front on Tuesday as CAA works through the area.
While wind gusts look to be at about the same speeds or slightly
weaker across most of the area on Tuesday, westerly wind gusts of
45+ mph are projected to occur over the Keweenaw during the late
morning to early afternoon hours. With the LREF even showing a 60-
90% chance of wind gusts over 45 mph by early Tuesday afternoon over
the Keweenaw, a Wind Advisory may be forthcoming for that portion of
the Yoop. Some wind gusts around 45 mph or so could also be seen
along portions of the lakeshore in the west and north central too,
but given that the stronger winds aren`t expected to make it inland,
no Wind Advisory is expected for these areas as of the current going
forecast. One more note about the winds: the high winds over the
Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday is looking to bring dangerous
swimming conditions back over the Lake Michigan beaches of
Schoolcraft County through the entire day Tuesday and the Lake
Superior beaches of Alger County for at least the afternoon hours.
Therefore, it goes without saying this late in the season that
swimmers should avoid putting themselves in such a dangerous
situation and wait for a calmer day to take an early-Fall dip into
our Great Lakes. As high pressure moves back into the region on
Tuesday night, expect the winds to rapidly fall off and for the
skies to become clear, allowing lows to fall into the 30s across
portions of the interior; some patchy frost may be seen once again
in the interior west Tuesday night.

Moving into the rest of the week, expect generally quieter weather
as zonal flow in the upper levels and shortwave ridges moving
through the U.P. generally keep active weather away. While this
should keep temperatures fairly seasonable for the rest of the week,
this does also support dry weather continuing until the end of the
forecast period, provided we don`t get grazed by a nearby shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 721 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions and light winds prevail across Upper Michigan through
this afternoon. An approaching system brings rain into KIWD and KCMX
20-00z and into the central UP including KSAW after 00z. This will
be accompanied by a downward trend to MVFR conditions potentially
some periods of IFR 00-06z Tue. A strong south-southwesterly LLJ
will also bring low level wind shear concerns late in the period as
winds at FL020 increase to 50+ knots be latest model soundings. Rain
ends from west to east after 06Z, but MVFR ceilings linger the rest
of the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 knots or less early this morning
give way to increasing southeast and eventually south winds late
this afternoon, with gales of 35 to 40 knots being seen over the
eastern lake by this evening while winds of 20 to occasionally a few
gale force gusts up to 35 knots are seen over the west half. As the
approaching warm front responsible occludes overhead and continues
through the area tonight through Tuesday morning, expect some
showers with a few rumbles of thunder to move through the lake.
While winds could die-down for a few hours once the occluding front
passes, expect them to reinvigorate to gales of 35 to 45 knots on
Tuesday from west to east; some storm force gusts up to 50 knots
will be possible over the central lake near the Keweenaw late
Tuesday morning through early Tuesday afternoon, with the latest
LREF showing up to a 50% chance of this occurring. However, because
of the quick-hitting nature of the frontal system, expect weakening
high pressure to build back in Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
winds rapidly dying down to 20 knots or less again by late Tuesday
night and remaining that way potentially for the rest of the week.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light winds of 15
knots or less this morning give way to increasing southerly winds
this afternoon, with southerly gales of 35 to potentially 40 knots
being seen late tonight as an occluding front moves through the
region. While some rumbles of thunder could be heard tonight, no
severe weather is expected given the lack of energy aloft. Behind
the front on Tuesday, expect the winds to slowly dwindle as they
veer with time, eventually lightening up to 15 knots or less again
by Tuesday evening. With weakening high pressure building in Tuesday
night into the mid-week, expect the light winds to remain across the
area for at least the rest of the workweek.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
     MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ249.

  Gale Warning from 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ to 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/
     Tuesday for LSZ162.

  Gale Warning from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/
     Tuesday for LSZ240.

  Gale Warning from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Tuesday for LSZ241>243.

  Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ244-245-248-265-266.

  Gale Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ246-247.

  Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ250.

  Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ251-267.

  Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ263-264.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...CB/LC
MARINE...TAP