037
FXUS63 KMQT 030515
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1215 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread southwest wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected over
  much of the area this afternoon and evening, especially over
  the west half, Keweenaw, and downsloping locations of the
  central UP.

- Wind Advisories are currently in effect for Keweenaw, Northern
  Houghton, Gogebic, and Marquette counties where wind gusts up
  to 45 mph are expected.

- Southwest to westerly gales are expected across Lake Superior
  the rest of today into Monday.

- Temperatures remain near normal this afternoon before
  rebounding slightly above normal into most of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

As a Clipper low moves through the Canadian Prairies and lifts
towards Hudson Bay this evening, an occluding front with cold air
advection behind it is approaching the U.P. from the west, arriving
over us tonight. As it does so, a LLJ with a wind core of speeds up
to around 65 kts is predicted to mix down southwest winds of 30 to
40 mph across much of the Upper Peninsula, with Gogebic County and
the Keweenaw potentially seeing gusts up to 45 to 50 mph from time
to time today. Because of this, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
these spots and for Marquette County as well given that winds from
near the Huron Islands down to Big Bay and the city of Marquette
could gust up to 45 mph late this afternoon into this evening thanks
to downsloping. As the front comes in this evening, expect to see
some light lake effect rain showers over area. While most of the
U.P. should be generally rain-free after 1 AM EST tonight, the lake
effect rain showers do look to hold on over the east into Monday
morning. In addition to the rain showers, expect winds to pick up
from the west-northwest immediately behind the occluding front
tonight, allowing for gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph to continue
through most of the U.P. late tonight through Monday. In addition,
the Keweenaw will remain in a Wind Advisory as gusts are projected
to get up to 45 mph throughout the day. As ridging builds into the
area on Monday from the west, expect the clouds to give way to sunny
skies and for winds to eventually die down Monday night.

While above normal temperatures look to persist through most of this
week, we could see calm conditions on Tuesday give way to lake
enhanced/effect rainfall once again Tue night into Wednesday as a
shortwave low skirts through the Northern Plains and the Upper Great
Lakes. While some spots could see a couple tenths of an inch of
liquid near Lake Superior, expect the precipitation to be light,
with maybe a changeover to snow over the north central by early
Wednesday morning before the lake effect wraps up. While some gusty
northwest winds up to 35 mph could be seen behind the shortwave on
Wednesday, nothing too much is expected impact-wise as this is
fairly common for this time of year.

After a little bit of rest of Thursday, another system could
potentially impact Upper Michigan late this week into this weekend.
While guidance has shifted away from a deep low moving through
northern Lake Michigan this upcoming weekend, some lake effect rain
and snow showers could be seen with this system, with the transition
to more and more snow occurring with time as temperatures cool to
below normal (highs in the mid 30s in the interior and lows in the
mid 20s); NBM guidance appears to hint at the north wind belts
seeing the most precipitation with this system. Given the relatively
`warm` lake sfc and air temperatures, we could still see a few
inches of wetter-than-typical lake effect over the north wind belts
this weekend; in addition, being that it`s so far out, the solutions
for the track of the low pressure could still change, so confidence
in this part of the forecast remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

A cold front pushing through tonight will veer winds from the
southwest to the west, though remaining gusty, with gusts at IWD and
SAW up to 30 kt and up to 40 kt at CMX. -SHRA is around 30 percent
likely at CMX early in this period, and similar chances of MVFR
exist, though they may be SCT. Once the front is through, VFR
conditions then prevail under mostly SKC conditions, though winds
will remain gusty out of the W to NW. There will be a brief period
of LLWS at SAW around 12Z as FL040 winds remain strong there,
perhaps up to 50+ kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Southwest gales to 45 knots with a few storm force winds up to 50
knots continues over Lake Superior this afternoon as a LLJ across
the area remains until an occluding front pushes through tonight.
After the front moves through, expect the winds to turn west-
northwest as gales up to 40 knots to occasionally 45 knots continue
over the lake into Monday thanks to some robust cold air advection.
As ridging builds in Monday and Monday night, expect the winds to
weaken from west to east with time, with the last of the gales dying
down over the eastern half of the lake Monday night. Light winds of
20 knots or less return for a short while Tuesday afternoon.
However, as a shortwave low moves runs through the Northern Plains
and Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday, expect the
winds to pick up once again from the northwest behind the low on
Wednesday, with some gales up to 35 knots possible over the east
half (30% chance according to the LREF). As more shortwave ridging
moves overhead Wednesday night into Thursday, expect the winds to
die-down to 20 knots or less again. Another system potentially
affecting the area late in the work week could bring gusty winds
over Lake Superior once again Thursday night into this weekend.
However, given that confidence on the low`s track is low at this
time, confidence on what`s going to happen is rather low too;
currently it looks like northerly gales could occur around the
Friday time period, but the chance of this happening according to
the LREF is around 10% chance.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ001-003.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     LSZ162.

  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this morning
     for LSZ240.

  Gale Warning until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     LSZ241.

  Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ242>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...TAP