Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
254 FXUS64 KMRX 261745 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 145 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 136 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Fall-like temperatures continue through Monday, but a notable warm up is expected Tuesday onward, with temperatures rising several degrees above normal. - Dry weather is expected through much of the coming week. Rain chances may return by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 There`s really not much to talk about for much of the coming week. An upper ridge extends from Texas into the Great Lakes region this morning, with an upper low and associated Nor`easter off the northeast coastline this morning. This basic central CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS trough pattern, holds through early next week before the ridge shifts to the Appalachian chain and southeast CONUS Wednesday through the end of the week and an upper low settles over the plains. As far as sensible weather goes locally, pleasant fall temperatures continue through Monday, with a notable warming trend expected Tuesday onward as the ridge builds overhead. Highs extending several degrees above normal look likely by the latter half of the week. Dry conditions should prevail through much of the coming week. The plains upper low looks to open up and eject ENE sometime Thursday night into Friday, with associated broad SSW low level flow pulling moisture northward from the Gulf into the greater Tennessee valley and southern Appalachian region. Current NBM guidance brings rain chances back into the mix in earnest by Friday. While that`s plausible, there`s enough disagreement in guidance to not buy into rain chances that far out just yet, plus experience suggests these types of patterns break down slower than expected. All of that to say, maybe check the forecast in the coming days and don`t bank of next weekend being a washout just yet. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR flight categories will prevail at all sites through the 18z period, with one caveat. A persistence forecast, as well as some numerical guidance as well, suggests that fog and low clouds will once again be an issue at KTRI tonight. Just have a TEMPO group in there to account for that given it was only a 3hr window where fog and clouds affected the terminal. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and light winds will be the norm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 74 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...CD AVIATION...CD