657
FXUS66 KMTR 191138
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
338 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Mainly dry weather through Wednesday, with a few isolated showers
   being possible.

 - More beneficial type rain late Wednesday through Thursday.

 - Dry weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
(Today and tonight)

Cloudy and cool to start the day around the Bay Area and Central.
Today will be a transition day weather wise as one storm system
exits SoCal and another storm system approaches from the
northwest. Initially the region will be in a squeeze play with
shortwave ridging overhead. Despite some ridging overhead, areas
that are starting off cloudy have a high likelihood of remaining
cloud through the afternoon. Through the afternoon the upstream
storm system will inch its way closer to the coast. The associated
cold front will also inch closer.

Latest forecast timing brings some pre-cold frontal showers to the
North Bay just in time for the evening commute. The leading edge
of precip will be warm sector scout showers. The main moisture
push is still expected later tonight and early Thursday. Expect a
rather wet overnight period as the fropa begins. The fropa will
bring a brief period of moderate to locally heavy rain. Not
expecting any rates to be high enough to cause issues on the
Pickett Burn Area. Unlike the last system as the front slides S
through the forecast area rainfall intensity will diminish.




&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Wet start to the day Thursday as the aforementioned cold front is
traversing the forecast area. Biggest impacts will be to the
Thursday AM commute. Minor ponding and a lower chance for
nuisance urban flooding. By late Thursday afternoon precip will
taper off from N to S behind the departing front. While there are
some high PWATs associated with the fropa AR guidance doesn`t
appear to be high enough to be an AR. Overall, still looking like
more beneficial rain than hazardous. Amounts are still roughly
the same a tenth or two most areas and up to a half inch N Bay Mts
and coastal mts. Weak instability will be present with the fropa,
but current thinking is any thunder chances will be less than 15
percent so no thunder is in the forecast.

Outside of precip, the front will bring an uptick in winds, but no
where near the wind conditions with the last two systems. Gusts
of 30-40 mph will occur along the coast and higher terrain.

Drier conditions develop by early Friday. Dry and warm develop
lasting into the upcoming weekend.



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 918 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

Low clouds are moving in from the coast, driven by a mesoscale low
pressure system near Bodega Bay. These clouds will impact many
terminals with MVFR ceilings overnight, but they should help limit
fog formation. Towards the end of the TAF period southerly winds
will begin to increase as a cold front approaches from the NW
Wednesday night.

Vicinity of SFO...Winds have decreased to a gentle onshore breeze
and the terminal has dodged ceilings for now. As the night goes
on, the chance for high MVFR or low VFR ceilings increases,
particularly in the hours around sunrise. If these ceilings form,
they will lift in the late morning. It now looks like southerly
winds will persist through the majority of the TAF period once
they become established. The cold front will bring another round
of lower ceilings and some light rain late in the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...A small pesky patch of stratus at MRY is
making the short term forecast challenging. While the ceilings may
clear in the short term, the overall trend is for a more robust
area of stratus to move over the terminal early Wednesday morning.
The ceiling height is a little uncertain but should be somewhere
between FL 015 and 050 through the majority of the TAF period
before the low clouds start to clear Wednesday afternoon. The cold
front will bring some light rain here as well, but it`s outside of
the current TAF window.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Conditions improve across the marine environment today with winds
diminishing and seas abating. Improvements will only be temporary
with hazardous marine conditions returning late Wednesday as a
weak  storm system moves through the coastal waters. Rain is
expected  overnight Wednesday into Thursday with thunderstorms not
anticipated. This system will bring a return of moderate winds
with  strong gusts Wednesday night through Friday before winds
abate  heading into the weekend. Seas build to between 10 to 15
feet  Thursday remain elevated into early next week. Elevate seas
will be  prolonged by the arrival of two distinct rounds of long
period, very  high northwesterly swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Monday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Kennedy

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