468
FXUS66 KMTR 271105
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
405 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Expect pleasant temperatures mostly at, or slightly below normal for
the remainder of the work week through the weekend. Confidence is
increasing for a warm up next week, potentially very warm for the
second half of next week. Monitor the forecast for Fourth of July
outdoor planning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Marine stratus over open water is making progress east toward our
coastal areas early this morning. Gusty onshore winds across the
North Bay have persisted overnight with the ACV-SFO and SFO-SAC
pressure gradients also beginning to assist in low stratus
developing over the area. That trend will continue as the larger
area of marine stratus over the water moves south through the
morning. The low stratus clouds will be mostly confined close to the
shoreline, eventually clearing out and making for another sunny
pleasant afternoon and evening, similar to yesterday. An upper level
shortwave trough deepens just to our west later today and tonight,
as a result midlevel flow will back slightly to the west with deeper
marine layer moisture in place. Expect increase coverage of low
stratus late tonight into Friday morning, ultimate filling the
interior valleys and gaps along the North Bay and Central Coast.
Temperatures increase slightly to right around normal for this time
of year on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Progressive shortwave troughing will persist through the weekend,
helping to maintain the pleasant temperatures we`re seeing this week
through Sunday. However, a pattern change appears to be on the
horizon for the beginning of next week. The last of the shortwave
troughs will shift east later in the day on Sunday, allowing for a
potentially strong dome of high pressure to build over our area for
the beginning of next week, and possibly persist past the current
extended forecast period. NBM temperatures that far out seem
reasonable attm, but there are signals for an impactful heat event
not only across our interior locations, but very warm temperatures
possibly impacting coastal locations as well. The forecast should be
monitored closely with fourth of July holiday activities being
planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 405 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with stratus beginning to fill in
along the coast. Confidence is increasing that terminals will be
able to escape the stratus this morning; however, if that is not the
case, the terminals most likely to be impacted will be MRY, OAK,
SFO, and SNS, and it will likely be with a brief low-end MVFR to IFR
ceiling. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Winds will
prevail out of the west today and transition to a southwesterly
heading towards the end of the TAF period. Moderate confidence on a
low-end MVFR ceiling impacting the terminal by early tomorrow
morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Winds will remain
onshore through the TAF period. MRY may briefly deteriorate to IFR
this morning as the stratus begins to fill in along the immediate
coast. Late tonight, MRY is expected to deteriorate to low-end IFR
and SNS is expected to deteriorate to low-end MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Building surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean
will move east, tightening the pressure gradient and thus
increasing the winds. Strong northwesterly breezes with gusts
approaching gale force will prevail for most of the period. Wind
is the main driver for the Small Craft Advisories; however,
significant wave heights begin to build to 10-12 feet towards the
end of the period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Friday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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