894
FXUS66 KMTR 022022
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
122 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

 - A slight chance for thunderstorms across the North Bay and
   Central Coast this afternoon and evening

 - Gusty onshore winds develop on Friday

 - Gradual warming trend begins this weekend with moderate offshore
   winds, especially in the higher elevations

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 120 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
(This evening through tonight)

Showers remain confined to interior areas of San Bentio County as of
this writing. By this afternoon and evening there will be chances
for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the North Bay and
Central Coast with potential for rain showers elsewhere across the
Bay Area. This is as MUCAPE values reach up to 500 J/kg across the
Central Coast this afternoon and North Bay this evening and into
early Friday morning. The CAMs (Convection-Allowing Models) also
show indications of this.

Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to range from the mid 60s
near the coast to mid 70s across the warmer interior locations.
Tonight, temperatures will cool into the upper 40s across the
interior Central Coast and North Bay valleys with 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1254 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
(Friday through Wednesday)

The strong upper level low will move through the state through
Friday, with drier conditions across the region with the moisture
having moved off to our south. A strong pressure gradient over the
Bay Area and Central Coast will enhance northwesterly winds
across the region, with wind gusts reaching 25 to 35 mph at the
immediate coast, within the Salinas Valley, and through favored
gaps and passes across the region. Wind Advisories may prove
necessary if confidence in more widespread gusty winds increases.
Temperatures will be around the same as today for the Bay Area
with a drop expected in the Central Coast, with the southern
Monterey Bay region and northern Salinas Valley seeing highs in
the lower to middle 60s, while the warmest locations in southern
Monterey County reach highs in the lower to middle 70s.

The weekend features a warmup as the upper level low moves off
into the Great Basin. High temperatures range from the middle 70s
to the lower 80s in the inland valleys, the lower to middle 70s
close to the Bays, and the middle to upper 60s along the Pacific
coast. A surface high will develop in the northern Rockies,
setting up the possibility for moderate offshore flow Saturday
through Monday. These would usually raise fire weather concerns,
but the antecedent rainfall and the limited strength of the
offshore flow will mitigate the risk. The latest update of the
PGE-WRF model shows the SFO-WMC gradient reaching -2 to -6 mb,
which will cause some offshore flow, but keep it from being strong
enough to warrant any critical fire weather threats.

Beyond Monday, upper level troughing is expected to persist over
the western United States, at least through the middle part of
next week. CPC outlooks lean towards temperatures and
precipitation totals near the seasonal average into the middle
part of October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Lower clouds are scattering with lingering light showers beginning to
exit the region. Expect mid-level clouds to prevail into the
afternoon but push east and south into the late afternoon and
evening. The afternoon brings moderate to breezy west winds that
last into the mid evening and early night before becoming light
again. Lower clouds build along the coast and the Monterey Bay, with
MVFR CIGs expected. These CIGs filter into the SF Bay later into the
night and STS gains IFR CIGs. Friday afternoon sees CIGS begin to
erode for all but the immediate coast.

Vicinity of SFO...Scattered low clouds with overcast mid-level
clouds continue into the mid afternoon but push east as breezy west
winds arrive. Winds become less breezy and reduce into the early
night with MVFR CIGs filling over the terminal into early Friday.
Expect these CIGs to exit into the late morning on Friday as
moderate winds build.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Light showers are dissipating and CIGs are
starting to rise. Expect more moderate winds along with low clouds
eroding into the mid afternoon, but mid-level clouds will linger.
Expect winds to reduce into the evening as MVFR CIGs fill over the
terminals. Light winds and CIGs last into the late morning and early
afternoon on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Lingering shower activity stays in the souther waters through the
day and into the night. Winds increase into the late night and
through Friday, causing widespread hazardous conditions for small
craft. These winds will support rough wind waves up to 10 feet
through the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon
     Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea