166
FXUS63 KOAX 251054
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
554 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog redevelopment will be possible across portions of the
  region tonight/early Saturday morning.

- Heat settles in over the region with temperatures approaching
  the mid-90s to low 100s. Heat related concerns are expected
  through at least Sunday with Monday also looking hot.

- There is a small chance of a few thunderstorms Sunday
  night/Monday morning, which could impact Monday temperatures.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return to the forecast Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

After collaboration with neighboring forecast offices, have gone
ahead and upgraded Sunday`s Extreme Heat Watch for the Omaha
Metro area into southwest Iowa to an Extreme Heat Warning:
expect heat indices to reach the 110 to 113F range. Regarding
Monday`s heat, there is some uncertainty regarding lingering
convection/cloud cover affecting temperatures. Have maintained
the Extreme Heat Watch for Monday and will continue to assess
trends for potential upgrade.

Fog with less than 1 mile visibility has develop primarily
along and west of a line from Albion to Wahoo to Lincoln this
morning. Will continue to monitor trends and assess potential
Dense Fog Advisory issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper ridge over Montana and
Wyoming and northwest flow over the Great Plains. Fog has developed
to our east, across portions of south central Iowa and northern
Missouri. The big question will be how this impacts the Omaha CWA.
Stratus has held on longer than expected this evening toward Norfolk
and south to Columbus and Lincoln. As long as the stratus sticks
around, this will help hinder fog development. We have had some
clearing south toward Beatrice, Hebron and York. With light
southeasterly winds and clear skies, we are looking at the potential
for fog development later this evening/tonight. Some patchy dense
fog may be possible. To the east of our area, we are seeing fog
development toward south central Iowa and northern Missouri. Winds
are expected to shift, becoming more southerly as we head further
into the overnight hours which could also limit potential westward
spread of fog into the eastern portion of our CWA.

Heading into the weekend, the ridge will shift east, over the Black
Hills by Saturday morning and across the Dakotas and Nebraska by
Saturday evening. Expect Saturday highs to reach into the mid-90s to
around 104. Heat index values will be at or above 105 degrees for
most areas. Sunday temperatures will be in the mid-90s to low 100s
for highs. Sunday and Monday morning lows will not recover well and
will be in the mid to upper 70s each morning with heat index values
in the mid-70s.

A Heat Advisory remains in place for Monona County in Iowa and
several counties across eastern Nebraska from noon Saturday through
10pm Monday. Expect heat index values to reach as high as 109 during
the afternoon hours and the mid to upper 70s overnight. Knox, Cedar,
Antelope and Pierce counties in northeastern Nebraska can expect
afternoon heat index values to reach or exceed 110 degrees with
little recovery overnight. Therefore, they have been upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning which will be in effect from noon Saturday to
7am Monday. The Extreme Heat Watch for Douglas and Sarpy counties in
Nebraska and most of our western Iowa counties will likely need to
be upgraded to a warning for Sunday and possibly Monday, with a
westward expansion not out of the question.

A shortwave trough is expected drop into eastern Nebraska/western
Iowa Sunday evening, bringing a chance of a few areas getting
clipped with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Should any storms
be able to develop, they could become strong to marginally severe
with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. Should
areas receive any storms, this could help cool things down a little
bit overnight, allowing temperatures to recover slightly. This would
likely have an impact on current forecasted temperatures for Monday.

Beginning Tuesday, we start to see a shift in the pattern with a few
disturbances trying to move across the Great Plains. This will give
us a few isolated chances for showers or storms. The more notable
change will be for some slightly cooler, although still hot
temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low to
mid-90s each day while lows will range from the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are observed across the area this
morning, largely driven from the low stratus and fog in place.
Expect these restrictions to persist for the next 2 to 4 hours.
KLNK could see visibilities rise some to MVFR this morning, but
this should be short lived with 1/2 mile visibilities quickly
overspreading the terminal. Thereafter, should see ceilings and
visibilities quickly recover to VFR at all terminals by the
late morning hours. Winds remain under 10 kts and out of the
south southwest during the daytime, becoming more south
southeasterly late in the TAF period but still under 10 kts. A
few models try to generate some widely scattered showers and
storms near KOFK after 00z, but chances remain low at only 14%
at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ015-
     018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to noon CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for NEZ052-053.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     NEZ011-012-016-017.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to noon CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Castillo
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo