024
FXUS63 KOAX 301834
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
134 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for widespread 2"-4" of heavy
  rain, with locally higher amounts possible.

- A couple strong to severe storms will be possible this
  evening, capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes.

- Cooler, dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures
  trending back warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Today through Thursday...

Gulf moisture, surging into the region ahead of the remnants of
Hurricane Polo, crashed into a stalled frontal boundary, bisecting
the forecast area. This interaction brought a steady rainfall to
locations along and south of I-80 last night. By 7 AM, amounts had
ranged from around 0.25" up to a max of 1"-2" from Lincoln to Omaha,
and 1"-3" over the corners of far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa.

We saw a brief break in precip this morning, before the second wave
developed with increasing low level convergence as the warm front
associated with the land-fallen hurricane lifts north. The 18Z OAX
sounding PWAT reached 2.08". This not only beats the daily max of
1.69, but is also the highest recorded PWAT to date, outside of the
range from June 24th-August 23rd. Deep warm cloud layers, around
12,000 ft, within skinny, well saturated soundings confirm efficient
heavy rain producing showers and storms can be expected through the
afternoon and evening hours, as Polo`s remnants surge northeast
toward Kansas. Some locations receiving repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall could see flash flooding, especially this evening and
overnight.

While cloud cover may stifle potential energy development this
afternoon, the warm front lifting north may bring just enough
instability to produce deeper, potentially severe, convection. A
decently strong LLJ will nose into the region this evening, bringing
around 40kts of deep layer sheer. Spin associated with Polo will
help curve hodographs across southeast Nebraska. This suggests that
if a strong storm or two are able to develop, damaging winds and a
tornadoes would be possible this evening.

Rain will likely continue through the overnight hours and into early
Thursday, before pushing south and east of the forecast area. When
all is said and done, widespread rainfall amounts of 2"-4" look
likely across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with a narrow
band of locally higher amounts, closer to 5"-6"+ possible.
Significant rises on rivers in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
look likely, with a few already forecast to reach minor flood stage.

Friday and Beyond...

For those who are sick and tired of all of this rain, we have some
good news for you - cooler and drier weather is on the way!
Temperatures will dip into the 60s Friday through the weekend, with
dry northwesterly flow overspreading the region. A ridge building
over the southwestern CONUS will shift eastward by the middle of
next week, bumping temperatures back into the 70s. There`s a slight
chance for a few showers popping up in the northwesterly flow by mid
to late week, however widespread rain chances look nil for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to persist through the majority
of the TAF period. Widespread rainfall will continue to move through
this evening and overnight. While a few rumbles of thunder may be
possible between now and 00Z this evening, the better chance for a
few strong to severe storms will be between 00-08Z tonight at KOMA
and KLNK. Rain will end from southwest to northeast early Tuesday,
with conditions improving to VFR toward the end of this TAF
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ044-045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG