116
FXUS63 KOAX 111106
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
506 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer today with high fire danger in northeast Nebraska.

- Continued warm through Friday and possibly into Saturday when
  highs will be in the 60s to low 70s.

- Dry through the work week followed by a 15-30% of precipitation
  this weekend into Monday, though confidence is rather low in
  the details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Today:

A weak mid-level disturbance currently over the northern Plains
will continue southeast through the mid-MO Valley later this
morning, in tandem with a surface trough that will switch winds
from southwest to northwest. Clouds will decrease with the
passage of the disturbance, allowing temperatures to warm into
the upper 50s to around 60 in western IA, with low to mid 60s
in eastern NE. The warm temperatures coupled with minimum
relative humidity of around 30 percent will contribute to areas
of high fire danger in northeast NE this afternoon.


Wednesday and Thursday:

A mid-level ridge centered along the Rockies Wednesday morning
is forecast to build east into the central U.S. Thursday into
Thursday night, ahead of a multi-stream trough moving onto the
West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will quickly build
through the area Wednesday with a lee trough deepening over the
High Plains Thursday. The high pressure will bring a slightly
cooler --but still above-normal-- air mass into the area with
Wednesday highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Winds will switch to
south on Thursday in response to the lee troughing with
temperatures warming back into the 60s areawide.


Friday through Monday:

As we discussed yesterday, the models offer various solutions
in the timing and amplitude of troughing moving from the
Interior West into central U.S. during this time period. Those
differences continue with the 00z global deterministic and
ensemble models. There is fairly high confidence that a polar-
branch trough will move through central Canada and the north-
central U.S. in the Friday-Saturday timeframe with an
associated surface front most likely moving through the mid-MO
Valley Friday night or Saturday. The models have trended drier
with the frontal passage, which is reflected in this forecast
update with only 15-25% PoPs on Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

Meanwhile, there`s greater model spread in the handling of a
subtropical-branch closed low, which is now not expected to move
into the central or southern Plains until Sunday or Monday. A
more northern track of that system would increase our
precipitation chances, likely in the form of rain. We`ll have
to wait and see. For now, the forecast will indicate 15-30% PoPs
Sunday night into Monday.

The warmest temperatures of the week are expected to occur
Friday and possibly Saturday (depending on frontal timing) with
highs in the 60s to low 70s. Readings are expected to trend
cooler Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
considerable high-level cloudiness (FL140-200) decreasing late
this morning. South to southwest winds of generally less than 12
kt will switch to northwest in the 15-17z timeframe with speeds
increasing to 12-13 kt with gusts up to 20-21 kt. Winds then
diminish by 23z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead