358
FXUS63 KOAX 242127
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
327 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering drizzle/light rain this afternoon ends this
  evening.

- Windy conditions Tuesday with gusts of 35 to 50 mph, highest
  in northeast Nebraska.

- Winter weather may impact travel Friday-Monday with
  significant uncertainty in the details at this time. Stay
  tuned to the forecast for latest updates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rain has largely moved off to the east this afternoon leaving
behind some patchy drizzle through the rest of the afternoon.
Satellite shows the upper-level wave currently centered over
central Kansas. This will continue off to the east this
evening, clearing out any lingering drizzle and low clouds.

What we`re watching next is another upper-level wave currently
moving into Wyoming. This system will develop a broad surface
Low over the Northern Plains with a strong pressure gradient on
the back side of the Low. Strong northwesterly winds are
forecast to develop, pushing into our area tomorrow morning, and
peaking through the afternoon. Expect winds 25 to 35 mph with
gusts to 50 mph over northeast Nebraska, with noticeably windy
but sub-advisory winds across the rest of our area. One thing to
watch is that several of the models show potential to mix down a
few gusts to 60+ mph in northeast Nebraska. For now going with a
Wind Advisory only, but if this signal becomes more prominent,
we may need to upgrade at least a portion of the Advisory to a
Warning and possibly expand the Advisory.

Winds should start to relax Tuesday evening as the gradient
begins to relax and we see the boundary layer become more
stable not allowing the stronger winds to mix down to the
surface. With colder air continuing to funnel in on the back
side of this system, though, expect temperatures to fall into
the low-to-mid 20s by Wednesday morning.

This will be the start of our cooler pattern ahead. The upper-
level pattern shows a ridge building over the western Rockies
midweek this week, only reinforcing northwesterly flow across
the Central Plains, helping to keep cooler temperatures in
place. Good news is we should remain dry Wednesday and through
Thanksgiving as a surface High expands eastward across the
Great Plains states behind the Tuesday system. Temperatures will
remain flat with highs in the 30s to low 40s across eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Overnight lows will drop into the
teens to low 20s.

The western Ridge weakens Friday as a shortwave busts through
across the Rockies. This will develop a surface low over eastern
Colorado that will be our second system that moves through later
this weekend. Up to the north on Friday we see another shortwave
bring a clipper-type Low down out of Alberta helping to develop
a band of frontogenetically-forced precipitation setting up from
somewhere near central North Dakota southeastward along or just
east of the Missouri River. With the cold air in place, this
should fall as snow, leading to travel concerns across much of
South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. It`s still
way too early to talk amounts as a small shift in the track of
this system or where this band sets up will lead to
exponentially different snowfall amounts, but the Probabilistic
WSSI which utilizes a suite of ensemble forecast information
shows a 20-40% chance of at least minor impacts from winter
weather, and 40-70% chances from Sioux Falls southeastward into
eastern Iowa.

We`ll see another push of colder air move in behind this system
Friday night into Saturday with highs on Saturday dropping down
into the upper 20s to mid 30s. This is where models start to see
significant differences in how it handles the surface Low that
develops over Colorado. Ensembles are all over the place with
its track, with some taking it northeast right across our area while
others bring it across Kansas and Missouri. A more southerly
track would lead to a better accumulating snow scenario while a
more northern track could lead to a mixed-precip event for at
least some of our area and the rest of our area fighting with
dry air getting entrained into the back-side of the system. For
now, gust going with generic PoPs from the ensembles which keep
snow chances starting Friday through the weekend, even though
there will likely be significant dry periods as well. Confidence
is just too low to put any stock in the forecast beyond this
period, so left the ensemble forecast in for Monday as well
which keeps precip chances and cooler air in place.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Showers have mostly cleared to the east with only some lingering
patchy drizzle/BR continuing over the next several hours
reducing visibility. Low clouds with IFR cigs hold over the
terminals with gradual improvement expected through the
afternoon and evening. Slowest to improve will be KOFK where the
wrap-around low cloud cover will linger the longest. May see
cigs dip again a bit right after 00Z before improvement
continues to VFR as the back edge of the low clouds clears the
area west-to-east overnight.

Winds through the day today will stay primarily light out of
the south or southwest and hold through the overnight hours.
We`ll see strong northwesterly winds push into eastern Nebraska
from the northwest Tuesday morning, ramping up at KOFK around
12Z, and KOMA and KLNK around 15Z. Gusts will initially only be
around 25 to 35 kt, but during the afternoon (beyond the TAF
period) we could see gusts 50+ kts, especially in northeast
Nebraska.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.
IA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy