769
FXUS63 KOAX 082343
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
543 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain and snow showers (20-40% chance) are expected
  this evening. Little to no accumulation is expected, though a
  brief burst of rain/snow is possible.

- Significantly colder tonight through Monday, with lows in the
  teens and 20s and highs in the 30s. Morning wind chills may
  dip into the single digits.

- Gradual warming is expected next week, with highs rebounding
  into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Tonight through Monday...

Objective analysis this afternoon reveals large-scale mid- to upper-
level troughing across much of the central and eastern CONUS.
Locally, a potent shortwave trough continues to dig into the mid-MO
Valley. At the surface, a primary low has shifted into northwest MO,
with an attendant cold front advancing southward across the central
Plains. The main frontogenetic/deformation band has pulled east into
central IA, taking with it the primary precipitation shield
responsible for the morning`s precipitation. Most of the area
received light precipitation (under 0.10"), though a quick an
efficient band of snow earlier this morning produced up to 2" across
portions of northeast NE and west-central IA, with locally higher
amounts to our north and east.

A brief period of clearing has pivoted across the area early this
afternoon. allowing temperatures to rise into the low to mid-40s for
most area, while northern counties remain in the mid-30s. North-
northwesterly winds continues to gust up to 30-40 mph. Additional
isolated to scattered showers (PoPs 20-40%) are expected through the
afternoon and evening as the main vorticity maximum pivots overhead.
Precipitation type will be a mixed bag once again, with mainly rain
transitioning to light snow from north to south as low-level
CAA strengthens. Showers will remain transient with minimal
coverage, so little to no accumulation is expected, though a
brief rain/snow burst cannot be ruled out. The primary impact
will be brief drops in visibility and slick roads under any snow
showers that do move into the area. Activity will taper off
from north to south through the evening hours.

Temperatures will fall quickly tonight under strong CAA, with lows
dipping into the teens and lower 20s. Persistent gusty winds will
result in wild chills ranging from the single digits to about 12
degrees. Sunday will mark the coldest day of the week, with highs
only peaking in the 30s, roughly 15-20 degrees below seasonal
averages. Northerly winds gusting at 20-25 mph will keep apparent
temperatures in the 20s through much of the day.

By Monday, an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough centered over
the Great Lakes region will maintain meridional flow aloft locally,
while ridging builds across the western CONUS. Another frigid
morning is expected to start the workweek, with lows in the teens
and wind chills again in the single digits to near 12 degrees.
Afternoon highs will moderate slightly into the upper 30s to
mid-40s.

Tuesday and Beyond...

From Tuesday through the end of the work week, mid- to upper-level
ridging will build into the central Plains, resulting in
predominantly zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. This pattern shift
will support a gradual moderation in temperatures through the week.
Highs are expected to range from the upper 50s to upper 60s, with
overnight lows generally in the mid-30s to mid-40s. At this time, no
notable precipitation chances are expected, though, a weak shortwave
disturbance could bring low-end chances later in the week.

Looking ahead, the CPC`s 8-14 day outlook favors above-normal
temperatures (60-70% chance) across the region, with precipitation
amounts also leaning above average (40-50% probability).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

KOFK: MVFR conditions persist through the evening and into
tonight across the region as our latest storm system moves
through. Spotty showers will be possible through the evening,
but there is not enough confidence in occurrence at the terminal
to make mention of this in prevailing conditions. Ceilings will
return to VFR levels by around 17Z and clear out by 20Z. Stout
northerly winds around 14-19kts are expected through the
forecast period.

KOMA: MVFR conditions prevail this evening into tonight for the
terminal due to low ceilings as a disturbance moves across the
region. There is a line of showers extending from Fort Calhoun
to Stanton (IA). Although decaying on the western side of the
line, these showers are moving south and will move into the
vicinity of the terminal over the next 1-2 hours. Ceilings will
improve after midnight, with skies clearing out by 19Z.
Northerly winds remain breezy around 13-18kts with gusts up to
25kts through most of the TAF period.

KLNK: MVFR conditions prevail through the evening and into the
overnight hours. Skies should clear out by around 20Z. There is
a small chance for an isolated shower moving through the region
later this evening, but confidence in location and timing is
low, so the mention was omitted from prevailing conditions.
North winds around 13-18kts with gusts as high as 25kts will be
possible through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...ANW