570
FXUS63 KOAX 252316
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
516 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today with gusts of 35 to 50 mph across much of the
  areas. Portions of northeast Nebraska could see occasional
  gusts near 60 mph, where a High Wind Warning is in effect.

- A band of snow is expected to bring travel impacts to parts of
  the area Friday into Friday night, with the highest chances
  (40-60%) in far northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa.
  Questions remain on exact snow amounts at this time.

- Winter weather may continue to impact travel Saturday into
  Monday though confidence in details remains low. Keep up to
  date on the forecast as we go through the week.

- Bitter cold is set after Saturday`s system, with lows falling
  into the single digits and teens Sunday/Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Today through Thursday:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a slightly negatively-
tilted mid/upper trough moving across the Northern Great Plains,
with a departing shortwave pushing into the Mid-Atlantic, while
ridging builds over the West Coast ahead of another system deeper
into the Pacific. We find ourselves on the southern periphery of the
stronger system over the CONUS at the moment, with wind being our
main concern over the next 12 hours. Steep lapse rates are in place,
and we`ve been able to tap into potent low-level winds that are
wrapping around the system to the north. As a result, several gusts
of 55-60+ mph or more in northeast Nebraska have occurred,
while the rest of the forecast area have gusted to 40-55 mph. In
addition to the wind, the steep low-level lapse rates are also
resulting in some shallow showers, some staying as rain and
others getting just cold enough for flurries to develop. No
accumulations are expected, as surface temperatures are still
too warm for anything to survive. Winds are generally peaking
between now and 6 PM, with the main axis of strong winds
expected to continue shifting eastward through the evening and
overnight hours, with gusts diminishing to 20-25 mph at most by
mid-tomorrow morning.

Once winds fall to below Wind Advisory/High Wind levels by midnight,
strong cold air advection will be in place, working to tank
temperatures whether or not cloud cover is in place into the
20s area wide. While this isn`t terribly too far from normal for
this time of year, we have been much warmer than normal, and
those wet spots on pavement will be ice. Heading into the day
tomorrow, high pressure will slowly start pushing southeastward
as the windy system lets us go from its grip. Highs are expected
to top out in the upper 30s to low 40s, with only a few high
clouds wafting overhead for a dry Wednesday. Quiet weather will
carry over into Thanksgiving with even quieter winds, and
similar highs to Wednesday. Most of the weather-making action
will continue to be wrapped around the wind system (now over the
Great Lakes and northeast), with an arriving trough pushing
into the Pacific Northwest.

Friday and Beyond:

That Pacific Northwest trough is poised to be our next weather maker
Friday through Saturday, before ushering very cold air in its wake
going into next week. During the day Friday, winds are expected to
pivot from the north to the southeast as a warm front develops to
our southwest. Looking above the surface, a strong warm air
advective regime is expected to develop and couple with banded
frontogenesis, resulting in areas of snow developing during
the morning before peaking during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Model soundings depict very dry air at the
surface, only being overcome generally north and east of a line
from Harlan, Iowa to Wayne, Nebraska. South of of that line,
their best bet will be during the morning hours and will only
see a few flakes at most as dewpoint depressions at the surface
stay at over 10 degrees.

Saturday continues to be the focus of the extended forecast, with
the bulk of the forcing from the aforementioned mid/upper low
arrives with additional energy from a clipper system that combines
with it. There continues to be considerable model spread with the
finer details of of the system, but ensembles have generally held
steady compared to their previous runs. GEFS suggests a 50% chance
of at least 1" along and northeast of a line from Norfolk to Omaha,
while the EPS has that line more through Yankton, Sioux City, and a
county or so south of Des Moines (the same Norfolk to Omaha line
would be about 20% in this case). One of the major differences
between the two solutions continues to be the arrival and departure
time, with the ECMWF/EPS being deeper and quicker to arrive,
but slower to depart. The quicker system peaks in terms of
precipitation amounts between 6 AM and noon, while the slower
solution does so between noon and 6 PM. An interesting detail
to keep an eye on will be a deep isothermal layer that starts
out outside of the DGZ during the peak of the precipitation, but
gets colder and colder, slowly improving snow ratios while the
overall amount of QPF decreases. Expect the rain snow line to
hand near the surface freezing line, with more details coming
into focus as we get closer. If you have the option to travel
Saturday, try to leave either the day before or the day later to
avoid the mess.

Sunday into next week will be marked by cold temperatures that
plunge us into the 20s at the warmest while low temperatures reach
the single digits to low-teens. No major snow chances look evident
during the cold snap (which should improve by mid-week), but we
often do squeeze out a few flurries during the bitter cold.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Very strong northwest winds continue across the region. Wind
gusts as high as 40 to 45 kts have been observed with sustained
winds of 20 to 30 kts. These winds will continue through this
evening. Clouds associated with the nearby low pressure system
is resulting in 2500 ft to 5000 ft ceilings. While VFR
conditions are expected, brief reductions to MVFR may occur at
OFK and OMA. After midnight, wind speeds begin to decrease
across the area. That said, wind speeds of 15 to 20 kts with
gusts to 30 kts remain possible. Wind speeds will continue to
slowly decrease heading into Wednesday morning across the area.
VFR conditions and lighter northwest winds are anticipated by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051.
     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ052-053-
     065>068-078.
IA...High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ043.
     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak